...Inevitability

Every day, the United States depends on 30,000 nuclear weapons for its security. Every day, the Soviet Union depends on 20,000 nuclear weapons for its security. These weapons are ready for use. There are plans for how to use them, so every day there is a small probability they will be used. In the metaphor of nuclear roulette, every day, we pull the trigger of the many-chambered nuclear gun pointed at the head of civilization.Every day, there is a small chance that one of the forty conflicts going on in the world will escalate. With many of these wars touching upon the perceived vital interests of the major powers, with the experience of the past forty years in the Middle East, with the experience of the 1962 Cuban crisis, there is ample evidence that every war pulls the trigger.

Every day, there is a small chance that a Third World hot spot will escalate and push the interlocking command and control systems of the US and the USSR into instability. There is an unhealthy parallel between today's military plans and those which catapulted Europe into World War I. Each time the far-flung military forces of the two great powers go on alert, the trigger is pulled in nuclear roulette.

Every day, there is a small chance that failures in high technology military equipment will start an accidental nuclear war. Every computer error, every false alert, every test missile that goes off course, pulls the trigger.

Every day, there is a small chance that a governmental or military group high up in either nation will succumb to group dynamics to such a degree that individual judgment will be lost and rash decisions made. Each time a team is called upon to decide how to respond to a provocative incident, each time warriors gather to decide what steps to take, the trigger is pulled.

"Each of these probabilities, by itself, is small. But taken together over a year's time, they add up to a cumulative probability which is no longer small ... Taken together over a century, they make nuclear war virtually inevitable."

Each of the hundreds of thousands of people with responsibility for nuclear weapons who drinks or uses drugs adds a small increment to the chance for nuclear war. Each time a custodian of nuclear materials, or nuclear plans, or keys to a nuclear facility, uses alcohol or other drugs, the trigger is pulled.

Every day, there is a small chance that terrorists or renegade governments will construct a nuclear weapon. The know-how, the materials, and the places where such construction can occur are scattered all over the globe. Fissionable material suitable for use in weapons is produced as an unwanted by-product at every civilian nuclear power plant in the world. More than 100,000 nuclear weapons could be built from the world's current nuclear wastes. Every coffee cup of fissionable material that a terrorist might obtain pulls the trigger in nuclear roulette.8

Each of these probabilities, by itself, is small. But taken together over a year's time, they add up to a cumulative probability which is no longer small. Taken together over a decade, the probability is significant. Taken together over a century, they make nuclear war virtually inevitable. We cannot continue on our present course forever. ...