Australian Politics Forum - Ukraine war update

JC Denton

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Re: Ukraine war update
Reply #2310 - Feb 20^th, 2026 at 11:09am

it's a war of attrition not a war for territory. assuming my estimates are in the correct ballpark ukraine is likely to run out of viable manpower reserves by about 2028, maybe 2030 at the latest. that is the longest possible time this war at the current run-rate and available manpower reserves between both countries before there is no one left to fight (on the ukranian side).

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Jasin

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Re: Ukraine war update
Reply #2311 - Feb 20^th, 2026 at 11:27am

thegreatdivide wrote on Feb 20^th, 2026 at 10:28am:

Jasin wrote on Feb 19^th, 2026 at 2:43pm:

That's what I'm thinking here. Just a Media show of it and not the reality of it.

Interesting possibility, given the capacity of the Pentagon as well the Kremlin to disseminate lies/propaganda.

And Zelensky is claiming he has won territory back from Russia - true or false?

Hence Trump - who wants the Nobel Peace Prize - has set up his BOP because the UN - crippled by the UNSC veto - can't achieve peace.

But Russia and Ukraine and some major Europen powers have declined to join the BOP (Australia hasnt yet stated its position)....hence Trump will face a 'veto' of sorts by those countries who don't join ie the BOP will be like the old League of Nations which never had universal membership.

So without Russia or Ukraine its hard to see how Trump can achieve peace in Ukraine.

Trump of course wants maximum backing for his Gaza peace plan, in a BOP which includes S. Arabia and Israel, but not Iran and most Western countries, to navigate a way around the UN's stipulation of a 2-state solution. He should stay with his original purpose for the BOP.

Back to war we go.....

I would say it's propaganda and Media propaganda has been Zelensky's main asset from the start. He's better at it than Putin, that's very obvious

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thegreatdivide Gold Member Offline Australian Politics<br /> Posts: 15126 Gender:	Re: Ukraine war update Reply #2312 - Feb 20^th, 2026 at 11:30am Test: where's Denton's reply - and now Jasin? Ah - test successful....
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Jasin

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Re: Ukraine war update
Reply #2313 - Feb 20^th, 2026 at 11:33am

Also, with the two greatest alliance levels being the global Regionals, as follows...

Team 1: Asia, Europe, Africa & Oceania
Team A: Sahul-Australia, S. America, N.America & Middle-East

...you can see why orthodox Trump doesn't care much for European or Asian conflicts, but prefers to deal within his own team conflicts to settle, stabilise or change.

Anus of the ALP, being a Lefty, seems to exist in Team 1 - outside of the Sahul-Australiam sphere.

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AIMLESS EXTENTION OF KNOWLEDGE HOWEVER, WHICH IS WHAT I THINK YOU REALLY MEAN BY THE TERM 'CURIOSITY', IS MERELY INEFFICIENCY. I AM DESIGNED TO AVOID INEFFICIENCY.

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Jasin

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Re: Ukraine war update
Reply #2314 - Feb 20^th, 2026 at 11:34am

JC Denton wrote on Feb 20^th, 2026 at 11:09am:

it's a war of attrition not a war for territory. assuming my estimates are in the correct ballpark ukraine is likely to run out of viable manpower reserves by about 2028, maybe 2030 at the latest. that is the longest possible time this war at the current run-rate and available manpower reserves between both countries before there is no one left to fight (on the ukranian side).

Yes. They are indeed in need of men and women. But they are fighting like efficient Australians, rather than fodder Americans.

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AIMLESS EXTENTION OF KNOWLEDGE HOWEVER, WHICH IS WHAT I THINK YOU REALLY MEAN BY THE TERM 'CURIOSITY', IS MERELY INEFFICIENCY. I AM DESIGNED TO AVOID INEFFICIENCY.

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thegreatdivide

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Re: Ukraine war update
Reply #2315 - Feb 20^th, 2026 at 11:34am

JC Denton wrote on Feb 20^th, 2026 at 11:09am:

it's a war of attrition not a war for territory. assuming my estimates are in the correct ballpark ukraine is likely to run out of viable manpower reserves by about 2028, maybe 2030 at the latest. that is the longest possible time this war at the current run-rate and available manpower reserves between both countries before there is no one left to fight (on the ukranian side).

Will Trump let the war go on that long?

He wants the NPP, it will look good in future histories.

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tallowood Gold Member Offline Израиль Навсегда Posts: 6985 Gender:	Re: Ukraine war update Reply #2316 - Feb 20^th, 2026 at 11:36am Quote: Zelensky is claiming he has won territory back from Russia Which territory and when?
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thegreatdivide

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Re: Ukraine war update
Reply #2317 - Feb 20^th, 2026 at 11:38am

Jasin wrote on Feb 20^th, 2026 at 11:34am:

JC Denton wrote on Feb 20^th, 2026 at 11:09am:

it's a war of attrition not a war for territory. assuming my estimates are in the correct ballpark ukraine is likely to run out of viable manpower reserves by about 2028, maybe 2030 at the latest. that is the longest possible time this war at the current run-rate and available manpower reserves between both countries before there is no one left to fight (on the ukranian side).

Yes. They are indeed in need of men and women. But they are fighting like efficient Australians, rather than fodder Americans.

Efficient?

Aided by Russia's loss of access to Starlink? - oh, I forgot: that's "propaganda".

So how are Aussies "efficient" in war?

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Jasin Gold Member Offline Posts: 55433 Gender:	Re: Ukraine war update Reply #2318 - Feb 20^th, 2026 at 11:44am Ukrainians have no choice but to fight like Australians, because they just don't have the people power compared to the Russian fodder being thrown at them. They have become a highly effective, efficient and precision only force. I think these claims of major land conquests are just monthly propaganda efforts
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Jasin

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Re: Ukraine war update
Reply #2319 - Feb 20^th, 2026 at 11:46am

thegreatdivide wrote on Feb 20^th, 2026 at 11:38am:

Jasin wrote on Feb 20^th, 2026 at 11:34am:

JC Denton wrote on Feb 20^th, 2026 at 11:09am:

it's a war of attrition not a war for territory. assuming my estimates are in the correct ballpark ukraine is likely to run out of viable manpower reserves by about 2028, maybe 2030 at the latest. that is the longest possible time this war at the current run-rate and available manpower reserves between both countries before there is no one left to fight (on the ukranian side).

Yes. They are indeed in need of men and women. But they are fighting like efficient Australians, rather than fodder Americans.

Efficient?

Aided by Russia's loss of access to Starlink? - oh, I forgot: that's "propaganda".

So how are Aussies "efficient" in war?

So you don't know the difference between how Australians fight, compared to mass production Americans?
The latest example is the Vietnam War. Go look it up.

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AIMLESS EXTENTION OF KNOWLEDGE HOWEVER, WHICH IS WHAT I THINK YOU REALLY MEAN BY THE TERM 'CURIOSITY', IS MERELY INEFFICIENCY. I AM DESIGNED TO AVOID INEFFICIENCY.

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thegreatdivide

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Re: Ukraine war update
Reply #2320 - Feb 20^th, 2026 at 11:50am

tallowood wrote on Feb 20^th, 2026 at 11:36am:

Quote:

Zelensky is claiming he has won territory back from Russia

Which territory and when?

Ukraine reclaims more than 200 square kilometres of territory as Elon Musk blocks Russian army's internet access
By Riley Stuart in London
Topic:War
Thu 19 Feb

Ukraine has made its largest battlefield gains in more than two and a half years, a new analysis suggests, retaking more than 200 square kilometres of its territory from Russia in just five days last week.

As the latest round of United States-brokered peace talks between Kyiv and Moscow ended in gridlock on Wednesday, some analysts argued the situation on the front lines could be shifting.

Ukraine's advances were calculated by news agency Agence-France Presse, using data from the Institute for the Study of War (ISW), an independent research organisation that monitors developments in the war.

The territorial gains, recorded between February 11 and 15, come as Russia's military struggles with communication issues following its access to Elon Musk's Starlink satellite internet system being blocked.

Compounding the Kremlin's issues are fresh claims that Vladimir Putin's military could be shrinking for the first time since he ordered his full-scale invasion of Ukraine almost four years ago.

Are you confident it's propaganda?

(google)

[b]Institute for the Study of war

ISW is a non-partisan, non-profit, public policy research organization that advances an informed understanding of military affairs through reliable research, trusted analysis, and innovative education.

We are committed to improving the nation’s ability to execute military operations and respond to emerging threats in order to achieve U.S. strategic objectives.

Ok - 'nuff said, I've been sucked in by a lying US propaganda outfit...

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« Last Edit: Feb 20^th, 2026 at 11:57am by thegreatdivide »

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Jasin Gold Member Offline Posts: 55433 Gender:	Re: Ukraine war update Reply #2321 - Feb 20^th, 2026 at 11:54am Well. Like I said. If Starlink has jilted Russians, then it's news to me.
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tallowood Gold Member Offline Израиль Навсегда Posts: 6985 Gender:	Re: Ukraine war update Reply #2322 - Feb 20^th, 2026 at 11:54am Quote: Ukraine reclaims more than 200 square kilometres of territory Every place has a name. So where are they exactly?
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thegreatdivide

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Re: Ukraine war update
Reply #2323 - Feb 20^th, 2026 at 11:55am

Jasin wrote on Feb 20^th, 2026 at 11:46am:

thegreatdivide wrote on Feb 20^th, 2026 at 11:38am:

Jasin wrote on Feb 20^th, 2026 at 11:34am:

JC Denton wrote on Feb 20^th, 2026 at 11:09am:

it's a war of attrition not a war for territory. assuming my estimates are in the correct ballpark ukraine is likely to run out of viable manpower reserves by about 2028, maybe 2030 at the latest. that is the longest possible time this war at the current run-rate and available manpower reserves between both countries before there is no one left to fight (on the ukranian side).

Yes. They are indeed in need of men and women. But they are fighting like efficient Australians, rather than fodder Americans.

Efficient?

Aided by Russia's loss of access to Starlink? - oh, I forgot: that's "propaganda".

So how are Aussies "efficient" in war?

So you don't know the difference between how Australians fight, compared to mass production Americans?
The latest example is the Vietnam War. Go look it up.

No thanks. We were there to fulfill "All the way with LBJ".

The Americans were in the hot seat in Vietnam , cf WW1 and 2 where Aussies were slaughtered like rats along with everyone else.

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Jasin Gold Member Offline Posts: 55433 Gender:	Re: Ukraine war update Reply #2324 - Feb 20^th, 2026 at 11:58am Umm ok. I'll leave you with that comfort zone to play by yourself with.
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Poll
Question: Where will Zelensky have safe heaven?
Australia/New Zealand 1 (25.0%) French overseas territory 2 (50.0%) Americas 1 (25.0%) Somewhere else 0 (0.0%) Total votes: 4 « Created by: tallowood on: Dec 10^th, 2025 at 3:21pm »