Meanwhile, Z is announcing at least another year of meat-grinding carnage. From The Spectator:
The Ukrainian president said this week he hopes the war will end by next June. Not this summer. Not this year. But in 12 months' time. Sanctions, he believes, and four years of gruesome war will finally hit the Russian economy, pushing it into a deep budget deficit. The IMF's latest forecast sort of backs this up. Russia's GDP growth is set to slow to 0.9 per cent next year, down from over 4 per cent in 2024.
So Russia's economy is set to sink to GDP growth of a mere 0.9 per cent? I thought the Russian economy had collapsed three years ago under the weight of what Biden called the toughest sanctions regime ever imposed. If that led to four per cent growth last year, the developed world should be lining up and begging to be given the Putin treatment. Annual GDP growth for 2024:
United States 2.8%
Canada 1.6%;
United Kingdom 1.1%
France 1.07%
Italy 0.7%
Germany -0.2%
So good luck banking on Russian economic collapse. As Christopher Caldwell observes en passant:
After the Russian invasion of Ukraine in 2022, Joe Biden got another lesson in American decline. He attempted to bring the Russian economy to its knees with sanctions and boycotts, only to discover that the United States and Europe, even together, lacked the leverage to compel China and India to join them. 'Backward' Russia has manufactured more shells in the course of the war than the advanced West.
We went into rather more detail about this a year ago, via some perceptive remarks by Viktor Orbán on the reality that the Ukraine war had revealed. Three years ago, we were told that the world was united against Putin's aggression. In fact, the world is united against the west, and very much on Putin's side. The Kremlin body-double is wanted by the "International" Criminal Court, but, when he hosts a summit on Russian soil, China, India, Brazil, Iran, the Arabs, South Africa et al are happy to fly in for the group photo. So the Ukraine war has accelerated what Mr Caldwell calls "American decline", and the rise of the post-western world: The rest of the planet concluded over three years ago that it was not in their interest to permit Putin to lose. If Lindsey Graham, Ms Nuland and the others panting for World War Three actually get it, China, India and the rest will likewise conclude that it is not in their interest to permit America to win.
Ukraine cannot win this war for reasons that have nothing to do with Russian troops, Nato weapons, Victoria Nuland's blood lust or Macron's Pullman-car cocaine. Ukraine cannot win because there are now too few Ukrainians either to triumph on the battlefield or to rebuild the country after victory - and not just because all the fighting-age male models would rather firebomb Keir Starmer's homes than Russian tanks. Ukraine's existential crisis is not a sudden influx of Russians but a huge lack of Ukrainians.
In the three decades between the disintegration of the Soviet Union and the start of the war, Ukraine's population declined from 52 million to 35 million: that's a third smaller. A total fertility rate of 2.1 births per couple is necessary to keep your population not growing but merely stable. A TFR of 1.3 births is what demographers call "lowest-low" fertility, from which no society has ever recovered: a lot of European nations have crossed that line in recent years. Yet, according to a report from the Ministry of Justice, Ukraine has halved that "lowest-low" threshold, with a fertility rate of 0.7 in 2023 headed for 0.6 in 2024.
This war is a disguised massive storewide-clearance sale of a dying country's remaining human capital. It will be the last war Ukraine ever fights. Other than Russia, which has demographic challenges not quite as severe, Ukraine is the largest country in Europe. Poland is half the size but with a bigger population; France is a little smaller but with more than twice as many people.War till next June? What for? Even if Putin were to surrender everything he's taken, they have no Ukrainians to put in those towns.
In the end, it's all demography.
https://www.steynonline.com/15360/war-what-for