Australian Politics Forum - Ukraine war update

thegreatdivide

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Re: Ukraine war update
Reply #1440 - Mar 15^th, 2025 at 1:35pm

ProudKangaroo wrote on Mar 15^th, 2025 at 11:32am:

Leroy wrote on Mar 15^th, 2025 at 11:05am:

greggerypeccary wrote on Mar 15^th, 2025 at 10:58am:

Bobby. wrote on Mar 15^th, 2025 at 10:02am:

greggerypeccary wrote on Mar 15^th, 2025 at 9:40am:

Bobby. wrote on Mar 13^th, 2025 at 9:09pm:

Putin will reject Trump’s Ukraine ceasefire deal despite Trump’s pandering.

Art of the deal Roll Eyes

Trump could win the Nobel peace prize.

For what?

Moving the world closer to nuclear war?

Yes for moving the world closer to nuclear war, Trump has suggested that Poland should get nuclear weapons and NATO should attack Russia, these are the things that will win Trump the noble peace prize.

He's cemented the reality that no nuclear-armed nation will ever willingly disarm, while sending a clear message to those pursuing such weapons that nuclear capability is the only true guarantee of power and protection.

The United States can no longer be trusted by its former allies, its reliability shattered by reckless treaty violations and a disturbing alignment with Russia.

You can attempt to spin this however you like, deflect, reframe, or drown it in partisan justifications, but the facts remain.

The fact is you are ignoring Putin's concerns about the eastward expansion of NATO, now threatening to disenfranchise Russians living in Ukraine. eg, a majority of Crimeans are Russians who want to be Russian citizens, not subject to a NATO hostile to Putin.

Quote:

Trump's deliberate actions in undermining arms control agreements and emboldening adversaries have made nuclear conflict a greater likelihood in humanity’s future, rendering the world a far more dangerous place.

Which is why Trump is desperate to ensure the US remains the guarantor of the 'free'-world (which is currently "stealing" from the US...), by ensuring US nuclear-arms capacity remains far ahead of the rest -friend and foe alike.

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So much winning, are you tired of it yet?

The losers in the current global financial/trade system - including the US (according to Trump), would certainly love to start winning.

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chimera Gold Member Offline Australian Politics Posts: 13946 Armidale Gender:	Re: Ukraine war update Reply #1441 - Mar 15^th, 2025 at 1:59pm thegreatdivide wrote on Mar 15^th, 2025 at 1:18pm: aqua is talking about a new flavour, not the old one, do try to keep up. He is. My sentence is not his. You get the idea.
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ProudKangaroo

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Re: Ukraine war update
Reply #1442 - Mar 15^th, 2025 at 2:04pm

thegreatdivide wrote on Mar 15^th, 2025 at 1:35pm:

The fact is you are ignoring Putin's concerns about the eastward expansion of NATO, now threatening to disenfranchise Russians living in Ukraine. eg, a majority of Crimeans are Russians who want to be Russian citizens, not subject to a NATO hostile to Putin.

If Russia’s concerns were genuinely about NATO membership, then why didn’t Putin launch an invasion when Finland joined? Why not Poland, the Baltics, or any of the other nations that chose NATO precisely because they feared Russian aggression, fears that have been entirely validated by Russia’s actions?

Ukraine wasn’t in NATO when Russia invaded Crimea and Donbas, so let’s drop the pretence that this war is about NATO expansion. It’s about Russian imperialism, plain and simple. The US has already ruled out support for Ukraine’s NATO membership, so that supposed "security threat" is off the table. Now, by that logic, Russia should withdraw from Ukraine and return all occupied territory, right? But we both know they won’t, because the NATO excuse was never the real reason, it was just convenient cover for Putin’s expansionist ambitions.

Your framing of "NATO hostilities" is just another tired Kremlin talking point. NATO is a defensive alliance; it does not annex territory, it does not invade sovereign nations, and it certainly didn’t hold any sham referenda under military occupation. Speaking of which, Crimea. You do realise the narrative you’re pushing is straight-up Russian disinformation, right?

The so-called "referendum" in Crimea was held at gunpoint, with no independent oversight. Prior to annexation, polling showed 53% of Crimeans preferred to remain part of Ukraine. Then suddenly, under Russian occupation, that figure miraculously flipped to 95% in favour of joining Russia? No independent verification, no legitimate democratic process, just a Kremlin-backed farce.

If that doesn’t strike you as even a little suspicious, then perhaps you should ask yourself why your talking points align so neatly with Russian propaganda.

Quote:

Which is why Trump is desperate to ensure the US remains the guarantor of the 'free'-world (which is currently "stealing" from the US...), by ensuring US nuclear-arms capacity remains far ahead of the rest -friend and foe alike.

That statement is a mess. First, it completely sidesteps the fundamental issue, no country can trust the US on denuclearisation, so that’s not even on the table. The US has made sure of that through its own actions.

Second, this bizarre claim that the world is "stealing" from the US just exposes a complete misunderstanding of how trade works. Trade isn’t theft; it’s an exchange. If the US is getting a bad deal, it’s because of its own policies and economic decisions, not some grand international conspiracy. Maybe try engaging with reality instead of parroting Trump’s victim complex.

Quote:

The losers in the current global financial/trade system - including the US (according to Trump), would certainly love to start winning.

Trump will say whatever he thinks will help him.

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chimera Gold Member Offline Australian Politics Posts: 13946 Armidale Gender:	Re: Ukraine war update Reply #1443 - Mar 15^th, 2025 at 3:20pm Putin and Trump are agreeing on the carve-up. Ukraine goes east and Greenland Panama go to the Great Deal of America First. Presumably Taiwan-Australia go to Mr Xi the Great.
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Bobby.

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Re: Ukraine war update
Reply #1444 - Mar 15^th, 2025 at 4:48pm

ProudKangaroo wrote on Mar 15^th, 2025 at 12:32pm:

Bobby. wrote on Mar 15^th, 2025 at 12:20pm:

https://edition.cnn.com/2025/03/14/europe/putin-kursk-ukrainian-troops-zelensky-...

Putin calls on Ukrainian troops in Kursk to surrender

US President Donald Trump’s wish to spare the soldiers’ lives as
Russian forces retake the area and claimed surrendering soldiers’ lives would be guaranteed.

Little Johny gets confronted by a bully,

Bully: "Give me your lunch money or you'll be beaten up"

Classmate: "You'd better give him your lunch money so you don't get beaten up"

Teacher: "This is your fault Johny, I'll only help you if you give me half your lunch money every day from now on."

Johny: "Here you go Miss"

Teacher: "Good, now give the bully the other half of your lunch money and we'll call it even"

Johny: "But what if the bully does the same thing tomorrow, like he's done many times before, even annexing my lunch box!"

Teacher: "He won't, we have an agreement that he'll let me keep taking half of your lunch money without getting in my way"

Johny: "That sounds like protection for you, not me!?"

Teacher: "You've not even said thank you and you're wearing the wrong uniform!!!!"

And with that the teacher wins the Nobel peace prize.

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thegreatdivide

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Re: Ukraine war update
Reply #1445 - Mar 16^th, 2025 at 10:49am

chimera wrote on Mar 15^th, 2025 at 1:59pm:

thegreatdivide wrote on Mar 15^th, 2025 at 1:18pm:

aqua is talking about a new flavour, not the old one, do try to keep up.

He is. My sentence is not his. You get the idea.

Yes, you are a typical conservative, looking backwards not forwards, even citing neanderthal behaviour as worthy of emulation......

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chimera Gold Member Offline Australian Politics Posts: 13946 Armidale Gender:	Re: Ukraine war update Reply #1446 - Mar 16^th, 2025 at 11:16am chimera wrote on Mar 15^th, 2025 at 1:14pm: It's actually quite an old flavour and was used successfully by Neanderthal brutes in their caves and towers. Oh yes, conservative Neanderthals and me go back a long way.
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thegreatdivide

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Re: Ukraine war update
Reply #1447 - Mar 16^th, 2025 at 12:02pm

ProudKangaroo wrote on Mar 15^th, 2025 at 2:04pm:

thegreatdivide wrote on Mar 15^th, 2025 at 1:35pm:

The fact is you are ignoring Putin's concerns about the eastward expansion of NATO, now threatening to disenfranchise Russians living in Ukraine. eg, a majority of Crimeans are Russians who want to be Russian citizens, not subject to a NATO hostile to Putin.

If Russia’s concerns were genuinely about NATO membership, then why didn’t Putin launch an invasion when Finland joined? Why not Poland, the Baltics, or any of the other nations that chose NATO precisely because they feared Russian aggression, fears that have been entirely validated by Russia’s actions?

Because Putin doesn't want to go to war with NATO (risking WW3), after he has discovered he can barely hope to win a war against Ukraine, while fighting Western sanctions and a Ukraine which is supported by arms shipments from the West. Putin expects he CAN win a war of attrition, especially as Trump is sick of US taxpayers supporting Ukaine.

[Re Finland: there are a tiny number of Russians living in Finland].

Quote:

Ukraine wasn’t in NATO when Russia invaded Crimea and Donbas, so let’s drop the pretence that this war is about NATO expansion.

Refuted above.

Quote:

It’s about Russian imperialism, plain and simple.

Not simple at all; Putin thinks Kruschev should never have recognised Ukraine's borders when:

wiki

The final expansion of Ukraine took place in 1954, when Crimea was transferred to Ukraine from Russia with the approval of Soviet leader Nikita Khrushchev.

Quote:

The US has already ruled out support for Ukraine’s NATO membership, so that supposed "security threat" is off the table.

Yes, that's the ace Trump has up his sleave, to force Putin to end the war.

Quote:

Your framing of "NATO hostilities" is just another tired Kremlin talking point.

Refuted above; Russians are majority in some Ukraine provinces.

Quote:

NATO is a defensive alliance;

..which should have been dissolved after the collapse of the USSR, given the newly democratic Russia wanted to be part of Western capitalism.

Quote:

Speaking of which, Crimea. You do realise the narrative you’re pushing is straight-up Russian disinformation, right?

The argument that Crimeans were only given the choice to join Russia (in the referendum) cuts both ways: why would Russian Crimeans want to remain subject to a Ukraine bent on displacing Russian culture?

Quote:

The so-called "referendum" in Crimea was held at gunpoint, with no independent oversight. Prior to annexation, polling showed 53% of Crimeans preferred to remain part of Ukraine. Then suddenly, under Russian occupation, that figure miraculously flipped to 95% in favour of joining Russia? No independent verification, no legitimate democratic process, just a Kremlin-backed farce.

Ah, so roughly 50-50, according to a prior poll.

Hmm...there's a problem straight away, which Putin who already believed/believes Ukraine IS part of Russian civilization, which slowly separated from the Motherland during the disastrous centuries of Mongol occupation of Russia, Putin is ready to exploit.

Quote:

If that doesn’t strike you as even a little suspicious, then perhaps you should ask yourself why your talking points align so neatly with Russian propaganda.

Explained above; nothing in politics is clear cut.

Quote:

That statement is a mess. First, it completely sidesteps the fundamental issue, no country can trust the US on denuclearisation, so that’s not even on the table. The US has made sure of that through its own actions.

No, the fundamental problem is the failure of the UN to defend the proposed new regime of "an international rules based order" created after WW2.

In the age of MAD, no less.

Hence Trump is determined to displace the correct role of the UN to maintain the peace under rule of law, with the role of the US as 'guarantor of peace', via a 'reign of terror' ie via fear of the world's most capable nuclear deterrence.

Quote:

Second, this bizarre claim that the world is "stealing" from the US just exposes a complete misunderstanding of how trade works. Trade isn’t theft; it’s an exchange. If the US is getting a bad deal, it’s because of its own policies and economic decisions, not some grand international conspiracy. Maybe try engaging with reality instead of parroting Trump’s victim complex.

Your error: the post-WW2 WTO rules based on free trade/free markets are why the US suffered deindustrialization to the extent that eg the world's largest ship-buiding capacity moved from the US after WW2, to China now.

Quote:

Trump will say whatever he thinks will help him.

Trump's stance explained above.

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Jovial Monk Gold Member Offline Dogs not cats! Posts: 51474 Gender:	Re: Ukraine war update Reply #1448 - Mar 16^th, 2025 at 12:50pm What massive self delusion!
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thegreatdivide

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Re: Ukraine war update
Reply #1449 - Mar 16^th, 2025 at 2:33pm

Jovial Monk wrote on Mar 16^th, 2025 at 12:50pm:

What massive self delusion!

[Great debating style there, Monk....] Sad

Causes of military conflict aside, here is something for you to consider re mainstream economic 'delusion' (and Trump's attempts to deal with these economic delusions):

(Econostrum English)

Reevaluating Free Trade: How the Australia-US Agreement Has Played Out

Free trade agreements are supposed to remove trade barriers and create mutually beneficial economic relationships, but according to experts, the 2005 Australia-US Free Trade Agreement (AUSFTA) has done the opposite. As reported by ABC News, the deal has resulted in trade imbalances, financial losses for Australia, and restrictions that favor US corporations.

Now, with Donald Trump imposing new tariffs on Australian exports, questions are being raised about whether the entire concept of free trade is flawed, especially when agreements can be ignored or weaponized at any moment.

Australia’s One-Sided Trade Deficit with the US.

When the AUSFTA was signed in 2005, Australian leaders promoted it as a breakthrough in trade relations with the US. However, the very next year, Australian exports to the US declined while US imports increased, worsening Australia’s trade deficit.

The International Monetary Fund (IMF) later estimated that the agreement was costing Australia over $5 billion per year. Trade specialists argued that instead of expanding trade and lowering costs, the agreement restricted competition and favored American companies.

Shiro Armstrong from the Crawford School of Public Policy criticized the deal, stating:

“When the Howard government was negotiating AUSFTA, observers raised serious concerns about whether it would distort trade and impose costs on the Australian community rather than expand and lower the costs of trade.”

More than a decade later, the concerns proved valid. Studies showed that both Australia and the US were worse off economically than if they had never signed the agreement, with Australia taking the bigger hit.

How the Agreement Gave America the Upper Hand.

The AUSFTA not only affected trade flows but also weakened Australia’s control over key industries, particularly pharmaceuticals and intellectual property.

One of the most controversial parts of the agreement was American influence over the Pharmaceutical Benefits Scheme (PBS). Before the deal, Australia had the power to negotiate drug prices to ensure affordable medicines for its citizens. However, during negotiations, US representatives pushed to weaken these controls, giving American pharmaceutical companies more power over pricing.

Thomas Faunce from the Australian National University explained the impact:

“The PBS process of reference pricing was considerably disrupted by the Australia-US Free Trade Agreement.”

This led to a two-tiered PBS system, which limited Australia’s ability to negotiate lower prices and contributed to higher costs for medications.

Intellectual property rights were another major win for America. Under AUSFTA, copyright protections were extended to 70 years, granting US companies longer control over their patents and limiting Australian access to cheaper, locally produced alternatives.

Trump’s Tariffs and the Reality of ‘Free Trade’
Despite the AUSFTA being in place, the US recently imposed tariffs on Australian steel and aluminum, proving that these agreements offer no real protection when political or economic interests shift.

Trump’s decision to impose tariffs contradicts the very idea of free trade, leading many experts to question whether such agreements hold any real value. If one party can simply override the agreement when it suits them, what purpose do these deals actually serve?

This situation is not unique to Australia. China has also ignored its free trade commitments when it suited its own interests. When tensions rose between Beijing and Canberra, China blocked Australian exports like wine and timber, despite both countries being part of a much-vaunted free trade agreement.

Tim Harcourt, a former Austrade chief economist, summed it up:

“I guess it was a sign of things to come with China under Xi and the USA under Trump in using trade and tariffs as a geopolitical weapon.”

Is It Time for Australia to Reconsider Its Trade Deals?

With the US continuing to enjoy a trade surplus with Australia while imposing new barriers on imports, there is growing debate about whether Australia should renegotiate or abandon parts of AUSFTA.

So far, Australia has chosen to avoid retaliation, but as protectionist policies gain traction globally, experts argue that it may be time for the country to reassess its trade relationships to prevent further economic disadvantages.

It sure is time to face the fact your "free trade" orthodoxy creates winners and losers......and Trump doesn't like being a loser (as he sees it) watching the de-industrialization of the US.

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ProudKangaroo

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Re: Ukraine war update
Reply #1450 - Mar 16^th, 2025 at 5:47pm

thegreatdivide wrote on Mar 16^th, 2025 at 12:02pm:

How can you claim Russia are the victims of Ukraine and NATO, and this is Putin's justification for attacking Crimea and the greater Ukraine when you in the same post say that Finland didn't interest Putin because the Russian population was too low?

Finland applied to join NATO on 18 May 2022 and it's membership wasn't granted until 4 April 2023, nearly a year after.

Public and political support for joining NATO remained relatively low, until Russia invaded Ukraine in February 2022. This dramatically shifted Finnish public opinion, with support for NATO membership skyrocketing from around 20–30% to over 75% within months.

That's over a year that Putin had the change to invade them to prevent them joining.

But now you shift the goalpost, by mistake it seems, claiming that:

thegreatdivide wrote on Mar 16^th, 2025 at 12:02pm:

[Re Finland: there are a tiny number of Russians living in Finland].

You're peddling Kremlin talking points and pretending they hold weight. They don’t.

Putin is not some misunderstood victim of Western aggression in the form of NATO, he’s the architect of an imperialist war, and your mental gymnastics to excuse it fall apart under the slightest scrutiny.

Dismissing counterarguments with lazy handwaves like "refuted above" or "explained already" doesn’t make your position any less hollow. It just exposes the fact that you can’t substantiate your claims when "the above" does nothing of the sort.

This isn’t just a disagreement, it’s an ideological chasm. I deal in facts and reality. You, on the other hand, appear determined to twist both to fit a worldview that’s conveniently pro-Trump and pro-Russia.

And let’s be clear: I have no interest in indulging a fantasy where Putin is the good guy. If you’re unwilling to engage with reality, there’s no point pretending this discussion is anything but a waste of time.

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Leroy

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Re: Ukraine war update
Reply #1451 - Mar 16^th, 2025 at 6:34pm

ProudKangaroo wrote on Mar 16^th, 2025 at 5:47pm:

thegreatdivide wrote on Mar 16^th, 2025 at 12:02pm:

How can you claim Russia are the victims of Ukraine and NATO, and this is Putin's justification for attacking Crimea and the greater Ukraine when you in the same post say that Finland didn't interest Putin because the Russian population was too low?

Finland applied to join NATO on 18 May 2022 and it's membership wasn't granted until 4 April 2023, nearly a year after.

Public and political support for joining NATO remained relatively low, until Russia invaded Ukraine in February 2022. This dramatically shifted Finnish public opinion, with support for NATO membership skyrocketing from around 20–30% to over 75% within months.

That's over a year that Putin had the change to invade them to prevent them joining.

But now you shift the goalpost, by mistake it seems, claiming that:

thegreatdivide wrote on Mar 16^th, 2025 at 12:02pm:

[Re Finland: there are a tiny number of Russians living in Finland].

You're peddling Kremlin talking points and pretending they hold weight. They don’t.

Putin is not some misunderstood victim of Western aggression in the form of NATO, he’s the architect of an imperialist war, and your mental gymnastics to excuse it fall apart under the slightest scrutiny.

Dismissing counterarguments with lazy handwaves like "refuted above" or "explained already" doesn’t make your position any less hollow. It just exposes the fact that you can’t substantiate your claims when "the above" does nothing of the sort.

This isn’t just a disagreement, it’s an ideological chasm. I deal in facts and reality. You, on the other hand, appear determined to twist both to fit a worldview that’s conveniently pro-Trump and pro-Russia.

And let’s be clear: I have no interest in indulging a fantasy where Putin is the good guy. If you’re unwilling to engage with reality, there’s no point pretending this discussion is anything but a waste of time.

We all agree on our side, if you just dismiss Russia without trying to understand where they sit then you have no hope of peace. Russia have to come out of this on their terms, if you want it to finish on Ukraine's terms then its a full on war to achieve that. So thats the options, peace on Russian terms or war.

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Trump derangement syndrome
Fareed Zakaria defined the term as "hatred of President Trump so intense that it impairs people's judgment"

Lets check in at 5pm on 23rd July 2025 then at 5pm on 30th July

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Jovial Monk Gold Member Offline Dogs not cats! Posts: 51474 Gender:	Re: Ukraine war update Reply #1452 - Mar 16^th, 2025 at 7:09pm Peace on ruzzian terms equals worse war when ruzzia is ready. Another paid ruzzian propagandist?
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greggerypeccary

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Re: Ukraine war update
Reply #1453 - Mar 16^th, 2025 at 7:14pm

Leroy wrote on Mar 16^th, 2025 at 6:34pm:

ProudKangaroo wrote on Mar 16^th, 2025 at 5:47pm:

thegreatdivide wrote on Mar 16^th, 2025 at 12:02pm:

How can you claim Russia are the victims of Ukraine and NATO, and this is Putin's justification for attacking Crimea and the greater Ukraine when you in the same post say that Finland didn't interest Putin because the Russian population was too low?

Finland applied to join NATO on 18 May 2022 and it's membership wasn't granted until 4 April 2023, nearly a year after.

Public and political support for joining NATO remained relatively low, until Russia invaded Ukraine in February 2022. This dramatically shifted Finnish public opinion, with support for NATO membership skyrocketing from around 20–30% to over 75% within months.

That's over a year that Putin had the change to invade them to prevent them joining.

But now you shift the goalpost, by mistake it seems, claiming that:

thegreatdivide wrote on Mar 16^th, 2025 at 12:02pm:

[Re Finland: there are a tiny number of Russians living in Finland].

You're peddling Kremlin talking points and pretending they hold weight. They don’t.

Putin is not some misunderstood victim of Western aggression in the form of NATO, he’s the architect of an imperialist war, and your mental gymnastics to excuse it fall apart under the slightest scrutiny.

Dismissing counterarguments with lazy handwaves like "refuted above" or "explained already" doesn’t make your position any less hollow. It just exposes the fact that you can’t substantiate your claims when "the above" does nothing of the sort.

This isn’t just a disagreement, it’s an ideological chasm. I deal in facts and reality. You, on the other hand, appear determined to twist both to fit a worldview that’s conveniently pro-Trump and pro-Russia.

And let’s be clear: I have no interest in indulging a fantasy where Putin is the good guy. If you’re unwilling to engage with reality, there’s no point pretending this discussion is anything but a waste of time.

We all agree on our side, if you just dismiss Russia without trying to understand where they sit then you have no hope of peace. Russia have to come out of this on their terms, if you want it to finish on Ukraine's terms then its a full on war to achieve that. So thats the options, peace on Russian terms or war.

Just give in to the aggressor?

FFS Roll Eyes

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GOP = Guardians Of Paedophiles

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Jovial Monk Gold Member Offline Dogs not cats! Posts: 51474 Gender:	Re: Ukraine war update Reply #1454 - Mar 16^th, 2025 at 7:22pm Leroy has joined the sewer. How appropriate.
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Poll
Question: Where will Zelensky have safe heaven?
Australia/New Zealand 1 (25.0%) French overseas territory 2 (50.0%) Americas 1 (25.0%) Somewhere else 0 (0.0%) Total votes: 4 « Created by: tallowood on: Dec 10^th, 2025 at 3:21pm »