Australian Politics Forum - Australian Interest Rates

Goose

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Australian Interest Rates
Apr 27^th, 2024 at 2:02pm

Back in 2022 I got into a "debate" with an "investor" over interest rates as the RBA started raising. A whole bunch of investor "experts" throughout the media were saying very quickly; "For gods sake RBA, stop raising rates or you'll kill everything". Experts saying even anything around 2% will kill us and there was I saying: are you fuvking kidding? I'm down the shops watching everyone still piling in and spending like champs, there's no real pain yet. If the average Joe is still spending, than the rest of the economy and big spends aren't being reigned in other. It was my street analysis version combined with some knowledge of the long term cash rate average that everyone seems to forget to even factor. I said it'll be more like 4% minimum, was told I'm an idiot by some purportedly very well versed market experts who also said the economy would die way before anything like that lol!! So here we are now and I'm getting a little more respect nowadays lol. That said; here is my on the record next prediction that also goes against all the "expert" commentary out there, including heads of economics for the largest banks in the country and every expert in the media etc etc. We have not tamed the inflation animal yet. There is not enough pain being felt despite all the dire media commentary and the Aussie public is still too dumb to actually grasp what "show some restraint for your own good" actually entails.. The stage 3 tax cuts will be kicking in from July and the changes made by Labour will ensure more goes where it will actually be spent directly into the economy rather than saved. By Sept/Oct we will be seeing more rate HIKES. Now try finding anyone else anywhere making that prediction. You heard it here first. Wink

NFA, DYOR

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« Last Edit: Apr 27^th, 2024 at 2:34pm by Goose »

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Grappler Racist Filth

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Re: Australian Interest Rates
Reply #1 - Apr 27^th, 2024 at 2:46pm

.... and it's the poor what gets the blame.......

As the rates rise so do the prices ... as the prices rise the wages nowhere near keep pace in the order of about 5:1 ... $500 a week would buy you a house in Sydney worth $50,000 in the late 1980's - now $1800 pw won't buy you a block of land..... and next to nobody cops AWE ... unless you're a sheila - a growing contingent of overpaid bumpkins .... where you're either on huge dollars or a SAHM with three kids on your own.... WELL, DUH!!

All this BS about wage rates needs a full look - not just by Two Fat Sheilas Sitting On Fine Chairs In Fine Salary and Raiment In a Fine Government Office making up bullshit.

So every time the poor old investor 'suffers' a hit - all that happens is the rent goes up .... the price goes up to suit again... the 'value' esteemed by the bank goes up..... oh - not enough idiots who are prepared or even able to pay that?

Bring in a few million more... some of them will fit their entire extended family inside and cover your rents for you.... time for the abolition of the nuclear family anyway - been going on long enough and the bastard still has life in it... bloody peasants just will not lie down and take their kicking....

**pulls up rock by fireside for afternoon billy boil-up** "Y'know, I often wonder why the docs pulled so many strings and put so much effort into getting me through cardiac failure.... why was I considered worthy of that when others just passed into the night? What special characteristics did I have that showed them they NEEDED to keep me around...... then I look at you lot..... and I know....... somebody has to try to lead you back to reality........ and I'm still working out how to do that.... I try every day - either you cannot understand or you simply don't want to come to grips with the evil taking over this country, culture of the West, and everything else by extension.....

Sad really to see a once great country with such potential ruined by idiots in power and control - the beta types with their limited intellects and mentalities even worse and all self-seeking and self-serving apart from a very few who suffer derision instead of reasoned discussion and resolution ..... megaphone negotiation by abuse .... gotta head into town now for some groceries.... stir up Lurch the social justice warrior if I get the chance.... tall red haired young guy who knows it all......enjoy your cuppa...."

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« Last Edit: Apr 27^th, 2024 at 2:59pm by Grappler Racist Filth »

“Facts are stubborn things; and whatever may be our wishes, our inclinations, or the dictates of our passion, they cannot alter the state of facts and evidence.”
― John Adams

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Goose Gold Member Offline Australian Politics Posts: 630	Re: Australian Interest Rates Reply #2 - Apr 27^th, 2024 at 2:52pm I don't think anyone blames the poor. However it's always the poor that are impacted first. They simply don't have the "wiggle" room the more affluent do.
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Sophia

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Re: Australian Interest Rates
Reply #3 - Apr 27^th, 2024 at 2:53pm

To reduce inflation, they increase rates.
Slowing down the economy… how can that be good for people in business or shop owners etc.
They have bills and overhead expenses to pay too.
What I also don’t fathom is how many new cars are coming in every year!
Why do we need that many?

So having said that… in my own observation (much like you have done Goosecat) I do see less people shopping and many shops have either no one in there or maybe one or two browsing.
All mainly in food courts/cafes/supermarkets.
Here’s another thing against us with the word inflation….
Food prices rising or… price gouging… and our big supermarkets are guilty as hell!
Hence what seems like we are overspending and hence needed interest rates to rise to curb that…how so? Are we supposed to buy less food or cheaper quality?
All the necessities that we can’t avoid are taking advantage to price gouge.
There’s the bs inflationary trick.

Next I will write of further of my own observations/comparisons of time.
Many decades ago we used to buy or sell via the trading post.
It was great and good value for those of us that budgeted and quite frankly, things were expensive back then in 1978… a 26inch colour tv was $1200.
A vhs player was $1100
So compared with lower wages back then…and prices of stuff now… a 75 inch colour tv in Aldi is $850
Back in time again…. A 60 inch rear projection tv was $12,000 and a 50inch plasma tv was $50,000

Anyway… I’m getting to the point re: 2nd hand stuff in the trading post… if you get the drift.
So we didn’t have easy access to money via credit card then… we had to literally earn and save before spending.
Then along came the credit card and many overused/over spent then got caught paying over 20% interest on repayments. Financial stress innit. Everyone wanted new stuff and wanted it ‘now’.

Well fast forward… it probably was a good indication of why and how inflation followed everyone that overspent like a bad smell.
Hence the trading post … we found… we hardly sold much anymore… no matter what lower prices we had. Everyone had credit cards and bought new.

And now… there is a slowing down…and guess what… fb market place is now like the old trading post roaring days used to be.
Finally…. what a looooong way around it took to come back to how it was in the good ole days of appreciating value with second hand/used goods. It’s always been the way society could survive… like bartering almost, re-use, re-new, re-cycle.

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If you put the federal government in charge of the Sahara Desert, in 5 years there'd be a shortage of sand.

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freediver Gold Member Offline www.ozpolitic.com Posts: 53210 At my desk.	Re: Australian Interest Rates Reply #4 - Apr 27^th, 2024 at 2:59pm Quote: To reduce inflation, they increase rates. Slowing down the economy… how can that be good for people in business or shop owners etc. Sometimes they do the opposite. The idea is to keep the same average long term inflation, but stop the wild swings.
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Goose

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Re: Australian Interest Rates
Reply #5 - Apr 27^th, 2024 at 3:06pm

Sophia wrote on Apr 27^th, 2024 at 2:53pm:

To reduce inflation, they increase rates.
Slowing down the economy… how can that be good for people in business or shop owners etc.
They have bills and overhead expenses to pay too.
What I also don’t fathom is how many new cars are coming in every year!
Why do we need that many?

So having said that… in my own observation (much like you have done Goosecat) I do see less people shopping and many shops have either no one in there or maybe one or two browsing.
All mainly in food courts/cafes/supermarkets.
Here’s another thing against us with the word inflation….
Food prices rising or… price gouging… and our big supermarkets are guilty as hell!
Hence what seems like we are overspending and hence needed interest rates to rise to curb that…how so? Are we supposed to buy less food or cheaper quality?
All the necessities that we can’t avoid are taking advantage to price gouge.
There’s the bs inflationary trick.

Next I will write of further of my own observations/comparisons of time.
Many decades ago we used to buy or sell via the trading post.
It was great and good value for those of us that budgeted and quite frankly, things were expensive back then in 1978… a 26inch colour tv was $1200.
A vhs player was $1100
So compared with lower wages back then…and prices of stuff now… a 75 inch colour tv in Aldi is $850
Back in time again…. A 60 inch rear projection tv was $12,000 and a 50inch plasma tv was $50,000

Anyway… I’m getting to the point re: 2nd hand stuff in the trading post… if you get the drift.
So we didn’t have easy access to money via credit card then… we had to literally earn and save before spending.
Then along came the credit card and many overused/over spent then git caught paying over 20% interest on repayments. Financial stress innit. Everyone wanted new stuff and wanted it ‘now’.

Well fast forward… it probably was a good indication of why it how inflation followed everyone that oversight like a bad smell.
Hence the trading post … we found… we hardly sold much anymore… no matter what lower prices we had. Everyone had credit cards and bought new.

And now… there is a slowing down…and guess what… fb market place is now like the old trading post roaring days used to be.
Finally…. what a looooong way around it took to come back to how it was in the good ole days of appreciating value with second hand/used goods. It’s always been the way society could survive… like bartering almost, re-use, re-new, re-cycle.

I am seeing small efforts of restraint but it's not enough. I was in Specsavers the other day and it was literally line out the door stuff. People aren't really showing restraint until they say; "I don't really need the new $500 glasses, the ones I'm using can make do a bit longer". People aren't really feeling a high level of market behaviour effecting, inflation reducing pain, until people with a 750k home have to sell and buy a 650k home instead, that's not happening yet. People are not really in pain whilst still importing record numbers of new cars (13% growth just last month). The required level of pain is not happening yet.

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« Last Edit: Apr 27^th, 2024 at 3:36pm by Goose »

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Sophia

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Re: Australian Interest Rates
Reply #6 - Apr 27^th, 2024 at 4:01pm

Quote:

I am seeing small efforts of restraint but it's not enough. I was in Specsavers the other day and it was literally line out the door stuff. People aren't really showing restraint until they say; "I don't really need the new $500 glasses, the ones I'm using can make do a bit longer". People aren't really feeling a high level of market behaviour effecting, inflation reducing pain, until people with a 750k home have to sell and buy a 650k home instead, that's not happening yet. People are not really in pain whilst still importing record numbers of new cars (13% growth just last month). The required level of pain is not happening yet.

Re: specsavers…it’s self care, most are paying extras with their health insurance so it’s covered.
We decided to ditch the extras saving $1000 per annum, and get our specs for $180 for 2 pairs.
It’s only once a year eye checks and if needed get new glasses.
We did skip one year once. But now at our age we really do need eye checks with not too much time between.
You may ask why do people need to get new ones every year… and I ask the same question about new cars!

Re: health… so more towards inflation is most Doctors that used to bulk bill are now charging higher than scheduled fee…so we are out of pocket… so people are inclined to visit doctors less now to save money. And that can’t be a good thing.
Oh and insurance premiums are up … our home insurance went up $800 !!!

We are being surrounded! Having to fork out more this it’s counted towards inflation?

Cigarettes are about… what? $50 a pack?
Far out I gave up when it went from .95c to $1 per pack.
So glad I did quit!

I admit… I like having a punt on the pokies… I’m cautious and press .30-50c a time.
Young blokes come in and do up to $5 a hit.
In fact, there’s always a lot of people in there…
I’ve once read that when times are tough… people will gamble more…hoping to win.
Sad really. I do it for fun and yes I do win sometimes. But many times I walk out $50 less and think… I could’ve had a back massage instead, or a new handbag!
So I do neither.
Anyway… it’s a balancing out of finances, not necessarily in order of priority…cha-ching!
That’ll teach me! Grin

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If you put the federal government in charge of the Sahara Desert, in 5 years there'd be a shortage of sand.

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Goose

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Re: Australian Interest Rates
Reply #7 - Apr 27^th, 2024 at 4:16pm

I was born with eye issues and have worn glasses since I was three, over 50 years now. I am probably more aware than most Australians of the various requirements for regular checks and eye-ware. I am still 100% correct on people in actual spending pain, deciding they don't really need that new set of glasses for now. I know, I've done it a number of times myself over more than half a century. That isn't happening yet. If you were genuinely showing real restraint; you'd forgo the pokies. As I said; you are an example of the public really not grasping what inflation curbing restraint actually means. Multiply your reality times millions of people and millions of products and you get "Enterprise" continuing to inflate and the RBA having to FORCE your hand further for the public's own good.

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« Last Edit: Apr 27^th, 2024 at 4:24pm by Goose »

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Goose

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Re: Australian Interest Rates
Reply #8 - Apr 27^th, 2024 at 4:52pm

That doesn't make you a good or bad person, it just means you are a typical Aussie not really experiencing the "Dire Cost Of Living Crisis" the media so extravagantly claims is "killing" us all. Meanwhile the Journos" continue munching on the same smashed Avacado breakfast they were having 6 months ago for less before getting into their new car import and you keep throwing coins down the Pokie drain. All whilst the poor suffer the consequences of the average Aussie public "child" not genuinely making the required inflation curbing restraint efforts unless forced to by the "Adults" (RBA). Perhaps that is something the Aussie public could actually reflect on. Nah bugger it; "Grab me another Corona love, fuvk this spending crisis poo is making me thirsty. Actually I might even grab a carton of "Extra Dry" when that's finished, you know we're in a fuvking crisis and I wanna do my bit for the poor".

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« Last Edit: Apr 27^th, 2024 at 5:07pm by Goose »

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John Smith

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Re: Australian Interest Rates
Reply #9 - Apr 27^th, 2024 at 5:37pm

Goose wrote on Apr 27^th, 2024 at 4:16pm:

If you were genuinely showing real restraint; you'd forgo the pokies. As I said; you are an example of the public really not grasping what inflation curbing restraint actually means.

Or maybe, like many other self funded retirees , Sophia doesn't have a mortgage and higher interest rates are in fact a positive that provides more income and not a negative.

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Our esteemed leader:
I hope that bitch who was running their brothels for them gets raped with a cactus.

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freediver

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Re: Australian Interest Rates
Reply #10 - Apr 27^th, 2024 at 5:39pm

John Smith wrote on Apr 27^th, 2024 at 5:37pm:

Goose wrote on Apr 27^th, 2024 at 4:16pm:

If you were genuinely showing real restraint; you'd forgo the pokies. As I said; you are an example of the public really not grasping what inflation curbing restraint actually means.

Or maybe, like many other self funded retirees , Sophia doesn't have a mortgage and higher interest rates are in fact a positive that provides more income and not a negative.

They nearly always go hand in hand with higher inflation.

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People who can't distinguish between etymology and entomology bug me in ways I cannot put into words.

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Grappler Racist Filth

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Re: Australian Interest Rates
Reply #11 - Apr 27^th, 2024 at 5:49pm

Goose wrote on Apr 27^th, 2024 at 2:52pm:

I don't think anyone blames the poor. However it's always the poor that are impacted first. They simply don't have the "wiggle" room the more affluent do.

That's what it means in Cockneyspeak, laddie.... the poor always take it on the chin.... you're halfway there....

Now then - what is your solution??

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“Facts are stubborn things; and whatever may be our wishes, our inclinations, or the dictates of our passion, they cannot alter the state of facts and evidence.”
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Goose

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Re: Australian Interest Rates
Reply #12 - Apr 27^th, 2024 at 6:11pm

Grappler Racist Filth wrote on Apr 27^th, 2024 at 5:49pm:

Goose wrote on Apr 27^th, 2024 at 2:52pm:

I don't think anyone blames the poor. However it's always the poor that are impacted first. They simply don't have the "wiggle" room the more affluent do.

That's what it means in Cockneyspeak, laddie.... the poor always take it on the chin.... you're halfway there....

Now then - what is your solution??

Restraint

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Daves2017

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Re: Australian Interest Rates
Reply #13 - Apr 30^th, 2024 at 5:24pm

“ He explained that strong population growth, driven by net overseas immigration, has put pressure on the Consumer Price Index.

“Most notably the housing‑related components,” Mr Aird wrote.

“As a result, demand is stronger and so inflation is falling less quickly than otherwise.””

“ news Ltd.

Well done labor, congratulations Albo.

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Win or die?

Tomorrow we fight!

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John Smith Gold Member Offline Australian Politics Posts: 78311 Gender:	Re: Australian Interest Rates Reply #14 - Apr 30^th, 2024 at 5:42pm Daves2017 wrote on Apr 30^th, 2024 at 5:24pm: Well done labor, congratulations Albo. you realise that inflation is less now than when labor took over, right?
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