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Monk was wrong (Read 15020 times)
Bobby.
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Re: Monk was wrong
Reply #195 - Nov 10th, 2025 at 8:07pm
 
lee wrote on Nov 10th, 2025 at 8:03pm:
You can't blame JM for that. According to AGW theory,
any temperature increase is proof of AGW, any decrease or snow is just weather. Wink



Monk doesn't know.   Roll Eyes
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Re: Monk was wrong
Reply #196 - Nov 10th, 2025 at 8:09pm
 
Bobby. wrote on Nov 10th, 2025 at 6:29pm:
Only 3 weeks till summer and we have snow on Mt Macedon and Mt Baw Baw -
both close to Melbourne:



https://www.weatherzone.com.au/vic/central/mount-macedon

Central for Tuesday. Cloudy. Very high chance of showers,
most likely in the morning and afternoon with possible small hail.
Snow falling above 800 metres.
(Mt Macedon altitude 1,010 meters)

Winds W/SW 20 to 30 km/h tending W/NW 15 to 20 km/h in the late evening.


https://www.weatherzone.com.au/vic/w-and-s-gippsland/baw-baw

West and South Gippsland for Tuesday. Cloudy. Very high chance of showers,
most likely in the morning and afternoon with possible small hail.
Snow falling above 800 metres.
Winds W/NW 15 to 20 km/h tending W/SW 25 to 35 km/h before dawn
then tending W/NW 15 to 20 km/h in the late evening.




Bobby. wrote on Nov 10th, 2025 at 6:39pm:
Close to Monk's place?

https://www.weatherzone.com.au/tas/lower-derwent/mount-wellington


Mount Wellington Weather

Tomorrow

Snow tending to rain

-3 ° C     to    +3 ° C

South East for Tuesday. Partly cloudy. High chance of showers.
Snow falling above 400 metres, rising to 600 metres during the afternoon.
The chance of a thunderstorm in the early afternoon.
Possible small hail. Winds NW 15 to 25 km/h tending
NW/SW 20 to 30 km/h in the early morning then becoming NW 25 to 35 km/h in the late evening.




Well - how about that?

Less than 3 weeks till summer and we have snow.

Where's all the global warming that Monk was trying to scare us with?

Melbourne and Hobart are cold and wet.
Monk has a tropical dog - the poor thing.    Roll Eyes
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Jasin
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Re: Monk was wrong
Reply #197 - Nov 10th, 2025 at 8:41pm
 
It snowed in Sydney once. Just two weeks from Xmas. I saw it. 1 foot thick.
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AIMLESS EXTENTION OF KNOWLEDGE HOWEVER, WHICH IS WHAT I THINK YOU REALLY MEAN BY THE TERM 'CURIOSITY', IS MERELY INEFFICIENCY. I AM DESIGNED TO AVOID INEFFICIENCY.
 
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Bobby.
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Re: Monk was wrong
Reply #198 - Nov 11th, 2025 at 7:51am
 
Jasin wrote on Nov 10th, 2025 at 8:41pm:
It snowed in Sydney once. Just two weeks from Xmas. I saw it. 1 foot thick.



Are you sure?


https://www.abc.net.au/news/2018-05-11/the-day-it-snowed-in-sydney/9743600

New South Wales' central west this morning woke to a dusting of snow — the first of 2018 — and while the white stuff seldom falls in Sydney, it has happened once before.

As the Harbour City shivered through its first taste of the cold weather last night and this morning, newspaper clippings from more than 180 years ago reveal today is, well, nothing.

Sunny Sydney and the sands of Bondi Beach have, in fact, once — and only once — been covered in snow.

During the "icy winter" of 1836, the thousands of convicts held in Hyde Park — and the British settlers in the then 48-year-old colonial outpost called Sydney — awoke to snow "nearly an inch deep" on June 28.
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lee
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Re: Monk was wrong
Reply #199 - Nov 11th, 2025 at 12:50pm
 
Jovial Monk wrote on Nov 11th, 2025 at 9:51am:
The potential for abrupt changes is far less understood in the Antarctic compared with the Arctic, but evidence is emerging for rapid, interacting and sometimes self-perpetuating changes in the Antarctic environment. A regime shift has reduced Antarctic sea-ice extent far below its natural variability of past centuries, and in some respects is more abrupt, non-linear and potentially irreversible than Arctic sea-ice loss.

A marked slowdown in Antarctic Overturning Circulation is expected to intensify this century and may be faster than then anticipated Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation slowdown.


Suspected future losses are now a sign of AGW. Wink

Jovial Monk wrote on Nov 11th, 2025 at 9:55am:
The amount of sea ice surrounding Antarctica has declined precipitously over the past decade.


"More so than the Arctic, Antarctic sea ice extents are extremely variable, both seasonally and from year to year. In the past decade there have been record and near-record high extents, as well as record and near-record lows. The overall long-term trend (since 1979) is nearly flat."

https://www.climate.gov/news-features/understanding-climate/understanding-climat...  Dated 2025

Jovial Monk wrote on Nov 11th, 2025 at 10:09am:
In this same model, the addition of meltwater to the surface ocean drives a projected 42% decline in Antarctic Bottom Water formation by 2050 in a high-warming scenario.

...


"This evidence suggests that a rapid and substantial slowdown in Antarctic Overturning Circulation is already underway, with observations suggesting that modelled rates of future decline may be underestimated. "

The result from models is not evidence of anything. Observations count. Wink

[quote author=Jovial_Abbott link=1762818687/3#3 date=1762820175]It is well recognized that the Antarctic Ice Sheet is prone to tipping dynamics.



Actually tipping points are an hypothesis, backed by nothing. Else the warmer periods that the earth has had would have tipped it. Wink

But I see the names Abrams and England attached. Alarmists writ large. Grin Grin Grin Grin

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lee
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Re: Monk was wrong
Reply #200 - Nov 21st, 2025 at 8:35pm
 
Jovial Monk wrote on Nov 21st, 2025 at 4:09pm:
Again I ask:
WHY DO WE NOT SEE THIS SORT OF INFORMATION IN WHAT IS
SUPPOSED
TO BE THE ENVIRONMENT MRB?

Anyone else think that the lack of technical/scientific posts in Environment, Economics and Finance and Health and Welfare is dragging down the SEO ranking, the visibility, of OzPolitic?

Even Food could do a lot more.


Well talking about Berkley Earth, which is not scientific and expecting quality from it, is itself unscientific.

You see a GLOBAL temperature needs input from around the GLOBE. Now we know Sea Surface temperatures, prior to 2004, Argo buoys were "mostly made up", according to Phil Jones, formerly of CRU Anglia.

now Berkley Earth have this to say -

"  This file contains a detailed summary of the changes in Earth's global average surface temperature estimated by combining the new high-resolution Berkeley Earth land-surface temperature field with a reinterpolated version of the HadSST4 ocean temperature field. "

[url] https://storage.googleapis.com/berkeley-earth-temperature-hr/global/Global_TAVG_
monthly.txt[/url]

And BEST Berkley Earth says "The Berkeley Earth project provides a set of historical temperature products consisting of estimates of the monthly mean of average, maximum and minimum surface air temperature anomaly over land (Rohde et al., 2013a,b), as well as a pair of blended land-ocean products (Cowtan et al., 2015, supporting information) which provide near global coverage by combining land air temperatures with the HadSST3 sea surface temperature reconstruction (Kennedy et al., 2011a,b)."

So estimates of anomalies and averages. What could possibly go wrong? Wink

Also NH stations have dropped from 3000 in 1950 to about 2000 today. SH stations have only dropped from 800 max to 600.

...

...

(originals in https://ueaeprints.uea.ac.uk/id/eprint/37833/1/newgrid_2012_January_cleancopy_no
tracks.pdf... to 2010)
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Re: Monk was wrong
Reply #201 - Nov 21st, 2025 at 8:51pm
 
Quote:
Monk was wrong


Its possible - we all get something wrong occasionally.

But Lee you would require a substantial improvment to be wrong as seldom as Monk.
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greggerypeccary
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Re: Monk was wrong
Reply #202 - Nov 21st, 2025 at 9:00pm
 
Bobby. wrote on Nov 10th, 2025 at 8:09pm:
Bobby. wrote on Nov 10th, 2025 at 6:29pm:
Only 3 weeks till summer and we have snow on Mt Macedon and Mt Baw Baw -
both close to Melbourne:



https://www.weatherzone.com.au/vic/central/mount-macedon

Central for Tuesday. Cloudy. Very high chance of showers,
most likely in the morning and afternoon with possible small hail.
Snow falling above 800 metres.
(Mt Macedon altitude 1,010 meters)

Winds W/SW 20 to 30 km/h tending W/NW 15 to 20 km/h in the late evening.


https://www.weatherzone.com.au/vic/w-and-s-gippsland/baw-baw

West and South Gippsland for Tuesday. Cloudy. Very high chance of showers,
most likely in the morning and afternoon with possible small hail.
Snow falling above 800 metres.
Winds W/NW 15 to 20 km/h tending W/SW 25 to 35 km/h before dawn
then tending W/NW 15 to 20 km/h in the late evening.




Bobby. wrote on Nov 10th, 2025 at 6:39pm:
Close to Monk's place?

https://www.weatherzone.com.au/tas/lower-derwent/mount-wellington


Mount Wellington Weather

Tomorrow

Snow tending to rain

-3 ° C     to    +3 ° C

South East for Tuesday. Partly cloudy. High chance of showers.
Snow falling above 400 metres, rising to 600 metres during the afternoon.
The chance of a thunderstorm in the early afternoon.
Possible small hail. Winds NW 15 to 25 km/h tending
NW/SW 20 to 30 km/h in the early morning then becoming NW 25 to 35 km/h in the late evening.




Well - how about that?

Less than 3 weeks till summer and we have snow.

Where's all the global warming that Monk was trying to scare us with?

Melbourne and Hobart are cold and wet.
Monk has a tropical dog - the poor thing.    Roll Eyes


Bobby still doesn't know the difference between weather and climate.

Oh dear   Roll Eyes
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Bobby.
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Re: Monk was wrong
Reply #203 - Nov 21st, 2025 at 9:17pm
 
greggerypeccary wrote on Nov 21st, 2025 at 9:00pm:
Bobby still doesn't know the difference between weather and climate.

Oh dear   Roll Eyes



Pecca - it has been unusually cold this November.
Last night I had the gas heater on.  Shocked

It's only 9 days till summer.

It was 3 below zero on Mt Baw Baw last night - close to Melbourne.

https://www.weatherzone.com.au/vic/w-and-s-gippsland/baw-baw
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Re: Monk was wrong
Reply #204 - Nov 22nd, 2025 at 3:44am
 
Monk's pot plants are going to die in the cold.
Maybe he'll have to pay Tappy a visit too like Marla does.
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AIMLESS EXTENTION OF KNOWLEDGE HOWEVER, WHICH IS WHAT I THINK YOU REALLY MEAN BY THE TERM 'CURIOSITY', IS MERELY INEFFICIENCY. I AM DESIGNED TO AVOID INEFFICIENCY.
 
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lee
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Re: Monk was wrong
Reply #205 - Nov 22nd, 2025 at 4:35pm
 
Dnarever wrote on Nov 21st, 2025 at 8:51pm:
But Lee you would require a substantial improvment to be wrong as seldom as Monk.



Evidence? Grin Grin Grin Grin Grin
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lee
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Re: Monk was wrong
Reply #206 - Dec 3rd, 2025 at 12:38pm
 
Jovial Monk wrote on Dec 3rd, 2025 at 11:39am:
Notice the peak of the 1998 El Nino and then the 2026 and 2023 peaks—the peaks are much wider, years wide. Means more years hotter than the average trend would indicate.


https://wattsupwiththat.com/2025/12/02/uah-v6-1-global-temperature-update-for-november-2025-0-43-deg-c/

The width of each data point is the same. Therefore, the peak is the same, ONE Data point. Grin Grin Grin Grin Grin
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lee
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Re: Monk was wrong
Reply #207 - Dec 3rd, 2025 at 1:22pm
 
BTW - UAH shows Australia to be 0.37C warmer than 1991. It's an emergency. Wink
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Bobby.
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Re: Monk was wrong
Reply #208 - Dec 8th, 2025 at 5:59am
 
lee wrote on Dec 3rd, 2025 at 1:22pm:
BTW - UAH shows Australia to be 0.37C warmer than 1991. It's an emergency. Wink



But Monk lives too close to Antarctica.
he lives in the roaring 40s - he is at -43 degrees latitude -
the vast circumpolar currents and winds that encircle the world in the Southern ocean.
Nowhere else in the world comes close to the harsh climate of the roaring 40s.
He lives there with his tropical dog called Socks.   Roll Eyes
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