https://edition.cnn.com/2024/04/19/politics/washington-wrestles-with-new-equatio... Washington wrestles with ‘new equation’ of direct attacks between Iran and Israel
By Alex Marquardt and Katie Bo Lillis, CNN
6 minute read
Updated 7:22 PM EDT, Fri April 19, 2024
Assessing the true impact of Iran’s attack
In the days following the attack on Israel, some analysts suggested that Iran may have deliberately sought to avoid casualties in an effort to keep the situation from escalating; Pentagon officials stridently rejected that hypothesis.
On Saturday, Israel and its allies were able to destroy 99 percent of the Iranian projectiles before they impacted. There was little damage in Israel, and no deaths. That, combined with public and diplomatic signaling by Iran in the days leading up to the attack, has caused similar theories about Iran’s intent to circulate Washington this week.
But administration officials — as well as McKenzie and other former officials — have denied the suggestion that Iran was pulling its punches this time, either. The sheer scale of the assault itself suggests that Iran intended to kill Israelis, officials and analysts said. In many ways, Saturday was a triumph of years of military planning done in preparation for precisely this kind of hypothetical assault.
But air defense against such a vast array of threats is a complex and difficult operation, and although Israel and its allies were successful, that success was in no way a foregone conclusion, current and former officials say.
“The Iranians used the crown jewels,” McKenzie said. “Their ballistic missiles, drones, and land attack cruise missiles. And what they launched was a maximum effort, about as much as they could do. This was not signaling.”
Now, Washington and the region await Iran’s response to the Israeli counterstrike.
The risk, officials say, is profound.
“Israel and Iran are going to be starting higher on the escalatory ladder for every future moment of conflict and that is incredibly dangerous,” said Panikoff. “If Israel and Iran have a greater threat perception of each other, they’re more likely to think they have to act in a more robust and aggressive way.”