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Is AGW accelerating? (Read 975 times)
Jovial Monk
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Is AGW accelerating?
Apr 3rd, 2024 at 4:05pm
 
Zeke Hausfather:

Quote:
As global temperatures shattered records and reached dangerous new highs over and over the past few months, my climate scientist colleagues and I have just about run out of adjectives to describe what we have seen. Data from Berkeley Earth released on Wednesday shows that September was an astounding 0.5 degree Celsius (almost a full degree Fahrenheit) hotter than the prior record, and July and August were around 0.3 degree Celsius (0.5 degree Fahrenheit) hotter. 2023 is almost certain to be the hottest year since reliable global records began in the mid-1800s and probably for the past 2,000 years (and well before that).


https://www.nytimes.com/2023/10/13/opinion/climate-change-excessive-heat-2023.ht...

Other researchers have said the same thing about 2023 being hotter than anything on record and for “thousands of years.” Poor lees.
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Frank
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Re: Is AGW accelerating?
Reply #1 - Apr 3rd, 2024 at 4:28pm
 
Jovial Monk wrote on Apr 3rd, 2024 at 4:05pm:
Zeke Hausfather:

Quote:
As global temperatures shattered records and reached dangerous new highs over and over the past few months, my climate scientist colleagues and I have just about run out of adjectives to describe what we have seen. Data from Berkeley Earth released on Wednesday shows that September was an astounding 0.5 degree Celsius (almost a full degree Fahrenheit) hotter than the prior record, and July and August were around 0.3 degree Celsius (0.5 degree Fahrenheit) hotter. 2023 is almost certain to be the hottest year since reliable global records began in the mid-1800s and probably for the past 2,000 years (and well before that).


https://www.nytimes.com/2023/10/13/opinion/climate-change-excessive-heat-2023.ht...

Other researchers have said the same thing about 2023 being hotter than anything on record and for “thousands of years.” Poor lees.



Zeke Howsyerfather!!   Cheesy Cheesy
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Re: Is AGW accelerating?
Reply #2 - Apr 3rd, 2024 at 4:36pm
 
Funny Frank. Not hilarious tho.
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Re: Is AGW accelerating?
Reply #3 - Apr 3rd, 2024 at 5:05pm
 
Jovial Monk wrote on Apr 3rd, 2024 at 4:36pm:
Funny Frank. Not hilarious tho.

Nothing about AGW.

Just some speculative 'where's my thesaurus for hyperbolic adjectives' kvetching.
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Re: Is AGW accelerating?
Reply #4 - Apr 3rd, 2024 at 5:33pm
 
All about AGW and the fears of it accelerating for the last 15 years.

Need 30 years to really determine climate but the signs of the acceleration are there to see.

AGW is going to bring change and change is fearful or ominous to all of us to some degree. Hence some invest all their belief in a Grand Solar Minimum that will, magically do away with AGW. Some preyed on the people desperate to believe the sun was in a GSM—like IceAgeFarmer and DuByne. It won’t, a GSM doesn’t make a huge difference and the Maunder Minimum did not cause the LIA which started like 350 years earlier.

You, Franko, are terrified by change, right?
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Re: Is AGW accelerating?
Reply #5 - Apr 3rd, 2024 at 5:44pm
 
Jovial Monk wrote on Apr 3rd, 2024 at 5:33pm:
All about AGW and the fears of it accelerating for the last 15 years.

Need 30 years to really determine climate but the signs of the acceleration are there to see.

AGW is going to bring change and change is fearful or ominous to all of us to some degree. Hence some invest all their belief in a Grand Solar Minimum that will, magically do away with AGW. Some preyed on the people desperate to believe the sun was in a GSM—like IceAgeFarmer and DuByne. It won’t, a GSM doesn’t make a huge difference and the Maunder Minimum did not cause the LIA which started like 350 years earlier.

You, Franko, are terrified by change, right?



The climate is changing, it is evident.  I don't think it has ever been static.

I just don't think humans are changing it. 


And this Mothraesque idiocy of 'are you afraid of change' trope - too stupid. YOU mongs are terrified of change, YOU mongs want to live in a static, unchanging world where everything is exactly as it was, forever - except, of course, socially and culturally where you want change, no matter how ludicrous and moronic, and the faster the better.





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Re: Is AGW accelerating?
Reply #6 - Apr 3rd, 2024 at 6:53pm
 
No, I am fairly happy with change but known bad change is no good at all.

We know AGW is happening and now it seems to be accelerating. This means bush/wild fires will become more fierce, sea level rise will accelerate too—some time this century, maybe towards the end but if AGW is accelerating rather earlier than that the West Antarctic Ice Sheet (WAIS) will lose the ice shelves acting as a “brake” on the glaciers and they will flow into the sea. 5m sea level rise just there—and the Southern Ocean is the fastest warming ocean basin.

I know, Frank, that you are not up to speed with science. Try reading https://history.aip.org/climate/summary.htm for a very gentle introduction to the science.
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Re: Is AGW accelerating?
Reply #7 - Apr 4th, 2024 at 8:09am
 
Jovial Monk wrote on Apr 3rd, 2024 at 6:53pm:
No, I am fairly happy with change but known bad change is no good at all.

We know AGW is happening and now it seems to be accelerating. This means bush/wild fires will become more fierce, sea level rise will accelerate too—some time this century, maybe towards the end but if AGW is accelerating rather earlier than that the West Antarctic Ice Sheet (WAIS) will lose the ice shelves acting as a “brake” on the glaciers and they will flow into the sea. 5m sea level rise just there—and the Southern Ocean is the fastest warming ocean basin.

I know, Frank, that you are not up to speed with science. Try reading https://history.aip.org/climate/summary.htm for a very gentle introduction to the science.


As I pointed out already, you'd own OP says no thing about AGW. It is something you just append to things because you believe in it like someone believes in the gods or clockwork universe.



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Re: Is AGW accelerating?
Reply #8 - Apr 5th, 2024 at 12:25am
 
Zeke is talking about very rapid warming.

Consult a dictionary Franko.
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Jovial Monk
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Re: Is AGW accelerating?
Reply #9 - Apr 5th, 2024 at 7:27am
 
UAH6 through to March:

Quote:
Keith Strong@drkstrong

New Satellite Data Show That the Earth is Still Warming: The data from UAH is now available for March 2024 and shows the lower troposphere is continuing to overheat. It was the hottest month on record. Note the 13-month smoothed average (red curve) sets a new high at nearly 0.6C.


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Re: Is AGW accelerating?
Reply #10 - Apr 5th, 2024 at 8:38am
 
Jovial Monk wrote on Apr 5th, 2024 at 12:25am:
Zeke is talking about very rapid warming.

Consult a dictionary Franko.

Not a word about AGW from Howsyerfather.
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Re: Is AGW accelerating?
Reply #11 - Apr 5th, 2024 at 9:22am
 
For those who don’t want to admit CO2 is a climate driver consider this:

1. A cycle of major ice ages and interglacials started 800,000 years ago. The cycle is driven by the Milankovitch Cycle which includes perturbations to the earths orbit, inclination, precession of the equinoxes etc. This would have been happening since the solar system established but the ice ages didn’t follow until the drop in CO2.

2. CO2 is a trace gas! Well, in terms of composition of the atmosphere that is true, CO2 is 0.0424% of gases in the atmosphere. Let us consider the three main gases, nitrogen, oxygen and argon. These absorb some of the visible light that reaches us from the sun, moderating the warmth on the surface. These three gases, N2, O2, Ar do NOT absorb infrared, IR, particularly the far IR. CO2 DOES absorb IR, spreading the energy from doing so to, mainly, N2 molecules. These move faster—the gas is warmer.

3. As IR is absorbed and turned into heat in the troposphere there is less heat reaching the stratosphere which cools. The GHGs, incl traces of water vapor, emit IR to space, cooling the atmosphere—but as the stratosphere cools less emissions happen and warming continues.

4. Look at the temperature series—they all show the rise in temperature including the series from Berkeley Earth Sciences Team who graphed using the raw, unhomogenised data and got a strikingly similar graph to the other series.

If you don’t want to admit we are warming the planet you have to show what IS warming the planet because warming it is, both terrestrial and satellite series show that.
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Re: Is AGW accelerating?
Reply #12 - Apr 5th, 2024 at 9:24am
 
The sun is not causing the warming. Late last century the sun left the mid century maximum and emitted a bit less energy. This is when AGW started raising temperatures.

So what do YOU reckon is causing the warming?
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Re: Is AGW accelerating?
Reply #13 - Apr 5th, 2024 at 9:34am
 
The sun is more active since the current cycle, SC25 started. SC24 was the lowest cycle since the 1980s—yet we warmed. Now we seem to be warming again and the sun is at brightness levels not seen since SC23.

However, the fluctuations of the sun are extremely small, maybe moving from 1362 to 1362.5 or a bit over 1363. Convert the change to percentages and the increase in brightness is tiny. Then we do not get all the light so the insolation. at the surface does not change by the full amount of that tiny increase.

So, it is not the sun.

What else? Come on, AGW is rubbish you say—so what is causing the rapid warming we are experiencing?
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Re: Is AGW accelerating?
Reply #14 - Apr 5th, 2024 at 9:40am
 
Frank wrote on Apr 3rd, 2024 at 5:44pm:
Jovial Monk wrote on Apr 3rd, 2024 at 5:33pm:
All about AGW and the fears of it accelerating for the last 15 years.

Need 30 years to really determine climate but the signs of the acceleration are there to see.

AGW is going to bring change and change is fearful or ominous to all of us to some degree. Hence some invest all their belief in a Grand Solar Minimum that will, magically do away with AGW. Some preyed on the people desperate to believe the sun was in a GSM—like IceAgeFarmer and DuByne. It won’t, a GSM doesn’t make a huge difference and the Maunder Minimum did not cause the LIA which started like 350 years earlier.

You, Franko, are terrified by change, right?



The climate is changing, it is evident.  I don't think it has ever been static.

I just don't think humans are changing it. 


And this Mothraesque idiocy of 'are you afraid of change' trope - too stupid. YOU mongs are terrified of change, YOU mongs want to live in a static, unchanging world where everything is exactly as it was, forever - except, of course, socially and culturally where you want change, no matter how ludicrous and moronic, and the faster the better.


No, I am pretty sure that underlies a LOT of denialism. I have argued that AGW is happening but that a Grand Solar Minimum is not happening now for years on Twitter with lots of deniers. Fear of change is the pretty obvious reason for denialism. Look how windfarms, say, are denigrated. Yes, it is a different way of generating power—change!

I think you, Franko, are afraid of change. You indentify as a conservative. Conservatives resist change—they dress it up a bit more than that but change and fear or dislike of change is what motivates them.
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