Australian Politics Forum - Climate, CO2 and the Sun

lee

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Re: Climate, CO2 and the Sun
Reply #45 - Feb 7^th, 2024 at 5:48pm

thegreatdivide wrote on Feb 7^th, 2024 at 12:50pm:

Descriptions of money flows in the real economy aren't models.

Of course they are. That's what Keen used. MINSKY is a model. Grin

thegreatdivide wrote on Feb 7^th, 2024 at 12:50pm:

And there is no lack of resources required to build sufficient solar/wind/backup, to run the planet on free sun and wind.

Get to it then. Your claim, you do it. Roll Eyes

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lee

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Re: Climate, CO2 and the Sun
Reply #46 - Feb 7^th, 2024 at 6:36pm

Wind -

"Daily near-surface wind speeds (u) grids have been developed over all of Australia at a 0.01° spatial resolution by interpolating terrestrial anemometers measurements from an expanded network for 1975–2006. For these new grids, the Australian-averaged u trend for 1975–2006 was -0.009 m s-1 a-1 (agreeing with earlier site-based studies) with stilling over 88% of the land-surface. "

https://data.csiro.au/collection/csiro:Wind_Speed

So an average trend slightly below zero and stilling (no wind) over 88% of the land surface. Roll Eyes

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lee

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Re: Climate, CO2 and the Sun
Reply #47 - Feb 8^th, 2024 at 5:00pm

thegreatdivide wrote on Feb 7^th, 2024 at 12:50pm:

Descriptions of money flows in the real economy aren't models.

So you are either saying Keen lied or you just don't understand what you are talking about.

"Steve Keen's model of Minsky's Financial Instability Hypothesis (Keen, 1995) displayed qualitative characteristics that matched the real macroeconomic and income-distributional outcomes of the preceding and subsequent fifteen years: a period of economic volatility followed by a period of moderation, leading to a rise of instability once more and a serious economic crisis. This paper extends that model to build a strictly monetary macroeconomic model which can generate the monetary as well as the real phenomena manifested by both The Great Recession and The Great Moderation."

https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/abs/pii/S0167268111000266

Roll Eyes

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thegreatdivide

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Re: Climate, CO2 and the Sun
Reply #48 - Feb 10^th, 2024 at 10:57am

lee wrote on Feb 8^th, 2024 at 5:00pm:

thegreatdivide wrote on Feb 7^th, 2024 at 12:50pm:

Descriptions of money flows in the real economy aren't models.

"Steve Keen's model of Minsky's Financial Instability Hypothesis (Keen, 1995) displayed qualitative characteristics that matched the real macroeconomic and income-distributional outcomes of the preceding and subsequent fifteen years: a period of economic volatility followed by a period of moderation, leading to a rise of instability once more and a serious economic crisis. This paper extends that model to build a strictly monetary macroeconomic model which can generate the monetary as well as the real phenomena manifested by both The Great Recession and The Great Moderation."

https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/abs/pii/S0167268111000266

Note the underlined: ''...real distributional outcomes..."; unlike climate models used to predict the effects of climate change in the future, Keen has shown mainstream "balanced government budget" dogma is nonsense - NOW (ie, not in the future) - using real data.

But AGW deniers be warned:

https://www.msn.com/en-au/news/other/us-climate-scientist-michael-mann-wins-1m-i...

US climate scientist Michael Mann wins $1m in defamation lawsuit

Regardless, in 2012, the Competitive Enterprise Institute, a libertarian thinktank, published a blogpost by Rand Simberg that compared investigations by Penn State University into Mann’s work with the case of Jerry Sandusky, a former assistant football coach who was convicted of sexually assaulting multiple children.

“Mann could be said to be the Jerry Sandusky of climate science, except for instead of molesting children, he has molested and tortured data,” Simberg wrote. Another writer, Mark Steyn, later referenced Simberg’s article in his own piece in National Review, calling Mann’s research “fraudulent”.

Mann sued both men and their publishers. In 2021 a judge dismissed the two outlets as defendants, saying they could not be held liable, but the claims against the individuals remained.

Simberg and Steyn argued they were merely expressing their opinion.

....opinion grounded in libertarian delusions....

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lee

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Re: Climate, CO2 and the Sun
Reply #49 - Feb 10^th, 2024 at 11:56am

thegreatdivide wrote on Feb 10^th, 2024 at 10:57am:

Note the underlined: ''...real distributional outcomes..."; unlike climate models used to predict the effects of climate change in the future, Keen has shown mainstream "balanced government budget" dogma is nonsense - NOW (ie, not in the future) - using real data.

So now you concede it is a model. Make up your mind. That then goes back to what I wrote earlier -
lee wrote on Feb 7^th, 2024 at 12:08pm:

And it still can't be relied upon. "past performance is no guarantee of future performance".

And real data? Projections can never be from "real data".

thegreatdivide wrote on Feb 10^th, 2024 at 10:57am:

But AGW deniers be warned:

So who are these people who believe the climate doesn't change? They must be nutters. The climate has changed for millions of years.

thegreatdivide wrote on Feb 10^th, 2024 at 10:57am:

US climate scientist Michael Mann wins $1m in defamation lawsuit

Yes. $1 in compensatory damages. He was defamed to that extent? $1 in 12 years? Grin

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thegreatdivide

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Re: Climate, CO2 and the Sun
Reply #50 - Feb 10^th, 2024 at 1:08pm

lee wrote on Feb 10^th, 2024 at 11:56am:

thegreatdivide wrote on Feb 10^th, 2024 at 10:57am:

Note the underlined: ''...real distributional outcomes..."; unlike climate models used to predict the effects of climate change in the future, Keen has shown mainstream "balanced government budget" dogma is nonsense - NOW (ie, not in the future) - using real data.

So now you concede it is a model.

No, I concede Keen's work proves the mainstream "balanced government budget" dogma is mythology with no foundation in reality.

Quote:

And real data? Projections can never be from "real data".

Keen isn't making "projections, he is disproving mainstream "balanced budget" dogma using real data.

Quote:

So who are these people who believe the climate doesn't change? They must be nutters. The climate has changed for millions of years.

Low IQ (or crippled brain)? The issue is the effects of man-made CO2 emissions on climate change.

thegreatdivide wrote on Feb 10^th, 2024 at 10:57am:

US climate scientist Michael Mann wins $1m in defamation lawsuit

Quote:

Yes. $1 in compensatory damages. He was defamed to that extent? $1 in 12 years? Grin

Can't read?

"US climate scientist Michael Mann wins $1m in defamation lawsuit"

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lee

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Re: Climate, CO2 and the Sun
Reply #51 - Feb 10^th, 2024 at 2:03pm

thegreatdivide wrote on Feb 10^th, 2024 at 1:08pm:

No, I concede Keen's work proves the mainstream "balanced government budget" dogma is mythology with no foundation in reality.

So it is model but isn't a model. Grin

thegreatdivide wrote on Feb 10^th, 2024 at 1:08pm:

Keen isn't making "projections, he is disproving mainstream "balanced budget" dogma using real data.

Then how do you explain "the preceding and subsequent fifteen years". Subsequent - Following in time or order; succeeding. You really should try to learn basic English. So hindcast and forecast. Forcast also means projection. Roll Eyes

thegreatdivide wrote on Feb 10^th, 2024 at 1:08pm:

The issue is the effects of man-made CO2 emissions on climate change.

And what are they? Be specific. Roll Eyes

And the test for it -

That's what the science says, according to the IPCC.

thegreatdivide wrote on Feb 10^th, 2024 at 1:08pm:

Can't read?

Can't read beyond the headlines? Who knew? Grin

"The jury in Superior Court of the District of Columbia found that Simberg and Steyn made false statements, awarding Mann $1 in compensatory damages from each writer."

https://apnews.com/article/climate-change-defamation-michael-mann-penn-state-612...

Once again shown to be a complete idiot. Not quite complete but working hard on it. Roll Eyes

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buzzanddidj Gold Member Offline Australian Politics Posts: 14248 Eganstown, via Daylesford, VIC Gender:	Re: Climate, CO2 and the Sun Reply #52 - Feb 10^th, 2024 at 2:33pm As soon as I see a post referencing well known conspiracy theory 'loon' site https://wattsupwiththat.com/ (as referenced in the O.P of this thread) I know it's time to roll my eyes and say "NEXT" (I couldn't even tell you what this one's about) Life is too SHORT ! .
Back to top	'I like your Christ, I do not like your Christians. Your Christians are so unlike your Christ.' - Mohandas Karamchand Gandhi IP Logged

lee

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Re: Climate, CO2 and the Sun
Reply #53 - Feb 10^th, 2024 at 2:47pm

buzzanddidj wrote on Feb 10^th, 2024 at 2:33pm:

As soon as I see a post referencing well known conspiracy theory 'loon'
site https://wattsupwiththat.com/

You really don't know do you? Watts provides peer reviewed articles and that makes them "loons".

Now all you have to do is show, conclusively, that it is bogus. Go for it. Grin

But I expect you believe that the "science is settled". Wink

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Bobby.

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Re: Climate, CO2 and the Sun
Reply #54 - Feb 10^th, 2024 at 3:23pm

Buzz,
Quote:

As soon as I see a post referencing well known conspiracy theory 'loon'
site https://wattsupwiththat.com/

I checked it out:

https://mediabiasfactcheck.com/watts-up-with-that/

Sources in the Conspiracy-Pseudoscience category may publish unverifiable information that is not always supported by evidence. These sources may be untrustworthy for credible/verifiable information; therefore, fact-checking and further investigation is recommended on a per article basis when obtaining information from these sources. See all Conspiracy-Pseudoscience sources.

Overall, we rate Watts Up with That a strong pseudoscience and conspiracy website based on promoting consistent human-influenced climate denialism propaganda and several failed fact checks. (2/14/2017) Updated (D. Van Zandt 04/11/2022)

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lee

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Re: Climate, CO2 and the Sun
Reply #55 - Feb 10^th, 2024 at 5:09pm

About Dave van Zandt and MediaBias Fact check

"CCD Editor’s note: Our site has also come under attack by this dubious, phony fact-checking website, which forced me to correct them on our About Us page.

I’m delighted that someone is finally taking action on them in the courts.

* * * * *

The discredited, self-styled ‘fact-checker’ website was served with a ‘cease-and-desist’ legal notice today for publishing unsubstantiated and defamatory claims against Principia Scientific International (PSI).

MEDIA BIAS/FACT CHECK site owner admits he is unqualified and misrepresented himself as a seasoned journalist."

https://climatechangedispatch.com/media-bias-fact-check-site-served-cease-and-de...
Wink

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