The Great Barrier Reef has avoided an 'in danger' listing, but still faces near-complete destruction

September 14 2023
ABC News

It's official. The world's biggest coral reef system is not going on the UN's list of World Heritage sites "in danger".

After years of threats, you can hear the Albanese government's sighs from across the country.

And it is no doubt a relief for many, including tourism operators who feared the bad news would drive away customers.

But the truth is, it should be little consolation for the Great Barrier Reef or others like it — or the millions of people that depend on those reefs for their livelihoods.

The fact is, coral reefs including the Great Barrier Reef, face near complete destruction in the coming decades.   

On a shelf of coral, some corals are a stark white colour.
It's not just the Great Barrier Reef experiencing mass bleaching and coral death.(Supplied: Australian Institute of Marine Science)
And while Australia's climate policies have increased in ambition since the change of government, they are still not consistent with even saving one per cent of the world's reef-forming coral.   

A catastrophe that doesn't bear thinking about
It is uncontroversial what is driving the destruction of reefs: the warming of the world's oceans.

And the cause of that is also uncontroversial: the burning of coal, oil and gas.

Already at 1.1 degrees Celsius of warming, reefs around the world are experiencing heatwaves that are causing mass bleaching and coral death — a phenomenon never seen before the 1990s, when it started being seen in only the very hottest years.

Now the waters are so warm, we see mass bleaching in the majority of years, even in relatively cool years.

If the world stops warming at 1.5C — something many now believe is slipping out of reach — the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change says between 70 to 90 per cent of corals will likely die.

More recent work has suggested the number could be as high as 99 per cent.

Australia still approving fossil fuel projects
The catastrophe wrought on reefs and the millions of people who depend on them for food and safety by 2C or more warming doesn't bear thinking about.

Coral reefs, as we know them, will by and large be something for museums.

When it comes to changing the warming trajectory for reefs, the Labor government has committed to increased ambition to curb greenhouse gas emissions, raising the country's 2030 target substantially.


The warming of the world's oceans is driving the destruction of reefs.(University of Queensland:)
But according to Climate Action Tracker — a science-based think tank advocating for strong action on climate change — those targets do not amount to Australia doing its fair share to stop warming at even 2C.

And perhaps more concerning for reefs and those that rely on them, the government is continuing to approve new coal projects.

The UN Secretary-General Antonio Guterres — as well as many others — has said it's not enough to just curb emissions.

"The world must phase out fossil fuels in a just and equitable way — moving to leave oil, coal and gas in the ground," he said, earlier this year.

Despite Australia's modest population, it is among the world's top suppliers of the fossil fuels that are driving global warming.

Tanya Plibersek is seen with a pink suit
The Albanese government has continued to approve new fossil fuel projects.(ABC News:)
And the Albanese government continues to approve new fossil fuel projects.

Environment Minister Tanya Plibersek has ruled that the climate impacts of several new coal mines can't be considered when approving them under existing federal environment laws, because there is no proof those individual projects will do significant damage to things like the Great Barrier Reef.

But the government has rejected calls to build climate considerations into all approvals of high-emitting projects through what has been called a "climate trigger".

Yeah Marine heatwaves

https://climate.nasa.gov/vital-signs/ocean-warming/#:%7E:text=Covering%20more%20...

Warmed 354Zettajoules since1955 to a depth of 2k metres.

Problems - we didn't know the water temperature at 2000 metres in 1955, ans certainly not to +/-2 Zj. It takes ab out 26  ZJ to warm the oean 1C. so 455/2600 = 0.175C and +/-2Zj? 0.0007C.

Phil Jones, CRU, famously said normals for further south than 40S were mostly made up. So a third of the SH. And that was until the Argo buoys were put in place. And they aren't as thick in the ocean as the pictures show. Each Argo buoy takes up less than 1 pixel.