Geophysical consequences of celestial mechanics
Posted on September 1, 2023 by curryja | 28 Comments

by Vincent Courtillot, Jean-Louis Le Mouel and Fernando Lopes

Sources of variability of some terrestrial and solar phenomena.

As former members of the geomagnetism department at IPGP (Institut de Physique du Globe de Paris), we have always retained an interest in solar-terrestrial relationships. Being in charge of geophysical observatories, we have always paid the foremost attention to long series of observations and as a consequence to methods of time series analysis. As of some five years ago, we have undertaken a systematic study of several long series of observations recorded around the globe (“long” means from several decades up to three centuries).

The research program has been quite productive, with the publication of some 24 articles in the past five years (all freely available online; references at the end of this note). The papers have been published in a very diverse set of journals, mostly in geophysics and astrophysics (in a broad sense). Because we came from the solid Earth geophysics community, it was not always easy at first to be recognized. Thus, we published in those journals where our French IPCC colleagues published, such as Cryosphere or Earth and Planetary Science Letters, MDPI or Frontiers. As a result, readers may have found it uneasy to grasp the wider picture. This short note is intended to try and draw this wider picture, to stress some of its consequences in the spirit of the paper’s title, and to give full references to the papers published in the frame of the program.

We have first determined the spectral content of many long series of observations, using either the Wavelet Method (WM) or Singular Spectrum Analysis (SSA). These series include global mean temperature and pressure of the lower atmosphere, a number of climate-related indices, solar activity through sunspots, length of the day, geomagnetic indices, extent of high latitude sea-ice, and more…
SSA allows one to decompose (in a way that a posteriori makes sense) a time series into a smooth trend and a series of components characterized by specific periodicities or pseudo-periods, based on which the series can be filtered and reconstructed.

We first applied the method to the series of sunspot numbers. The series could be satisfactorily reconstructed from simply a (rather flat) trend and two components with periods 11 years (Schwabe cycle) and 90 years (Gleissberg cycle). More interestingly, these components allow one to construct a precise and robust model of solar activity and to predict (so far rather accurately) the ongoing sunspot cycle and beyond [ref 1, 2, 3].

We have next determined the SSA components of the length of day (or Earth’s rotation velocity) and motions of our planet’s pole of rotation. To the Schwabe and Gleissberg cycles could thus be added the Hale (~22 years) and Jose (~160 years) cycles [ref 4, 5, 6]. We also analyzed tide gauges and sea-level change [ref 7, 8]. In all these series we could recognize the signatures of the four Jovian planets (Jupiter, Saturn, Uranus and Neptune): i.e. their periods of rotation and many of their “commensurable” periods. This argues for a mechanism involving exchanges of angular momentum between the Sun, Earth and planets. Variations in the inclination of the rotation axis due to this coupling in turn affect insolation, much in the way exemplified by Milankovic cycles at much longer periods (from tens of thousands to millions of years). We propose to extend the concept of Milankovic cycles to the much shorter periods we have analyzed [ref 9, 10].

The main components mentioned above are common (in whole or in part) to all the series we have analyzed [ref 11, 12, 13, 14, 15, 16, 17, 18, 19, 20, 21, 22, 23, 24]. The fact that these series of components are found in the rotational mechanics of the planets and in many Earth-bound phenomena argues for a causal (forcing) relationship that can only work one way. The components one finds in sea level, pressure, temperature… must arise from a causal chain going (1) from Jovian planets to the Sun
(or directly to Earth), then (2) to inclination changes in Earth’s rotation axis, with (3) consequences on insolation changes (therefore climate), sea level and tides [ref 8, 10, 17].

We note that trends could actually correspond to still other pseudo-periodic components with much longer pseudo-periods (longer than the data interval). As a result, we argue that a very large part of the geophysical and atmospheric variations covered by the series we have analyzed appear to have an external origin (astronomical or gravitational). The perturbing effects of the giant planets correspond to a remarkable set of frequencies [ref 5, 19] that modulate (force) solar activity, variations in inclination of the Earth’s rotation, many terrestrial parameters among which sea level, oceanographic indices, sea – ice and finally temperature. These components have in general not yet been modeled.These works shed light and are in turn illuminated by the works of giants, the Legendre, Laplace, Lagrange and Poisson, who revolutionized geophysics [ref 25, 26, 27, 28]. The core of their elegant physics explains well the careful observations gathered in the past 200 years.

[b]History[/b]

Climate Etc is the blog of Judith A. Curry, who is an American climatologist and former chair of the School of Earth and Atmospheric Sciences at the Georgia Institute of Technology. The blog publishes news and information regarding climate science and climate change from a skeptical perspective. She was a member of the National Research Council’s Climate Research Committee, published over a hundred scientific papers, and co-edited several significant works. Curry retired from academia in 2017.

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Analysis / Bias

Most articles reviewed minimize or deny the impacts of human-driven climate change. According to a Scientific American interview, J

udith Curry admits to receiving funding from the fossil fuel industry

. This article also labeled her a “climate heretic.” Further, Republicans have invited Judith Curry to testify at climate change hearings regarding alleged uncertainties regarding man-made climate change. Finally, Skeptical Science labeled Judith Curry a “Climate Misinformer.”

The website publishes blog posts by Judith Curry related to climate change, and they provide links to other sources that also promote human-influenced climate change denial, such as Watts Up With That and John Stossel, who is not even remotely a climate scientist. The consensus of climate scientists is that climate change is human-influenced, and this site minimizes that assessment. They have also failed numerous fact-checks.

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Misleading

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[color=#ff0000]Misleadin

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Antarctic sea-ice extent is increasing to record levels. Antarctica is getting colder; its sea ice and ice cap are not melting. –

Inaccurate

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