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The Arctic-Subarctic and seasonality (Read 98 times)
lee
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The Arctic-Subarctic and seasonality
Jul 24th, 2023 at 5:55pm
 
Quote:
The loss of Arctic sea ice is a conspicuous example of climate change. Climate models project ice-free conditions during summer this century under realistic emission scenarios, reflecting the increase in seasonality in ice cover. To quantify the increased seasonality in the Arctic-Subarctic sea ice system, we define a non-dimensional seasonality number for sea ice extent, area, and volume from satellite data and realistic coupled climate models. We show that the Arctic-Subarctic, i.e. the northern hemisphere, sea ice now exhibits similar levels of seasonality to the Antarctic, which is in a seasonal regime without significant change since satellite observations began in 1979. Realistic climate models suggest that this transition to the seasonal regime is being accompanied by a maximum in Arctic amplification, which is the faster warming of Arctic latitudes compared to the global mean, in the 2010s. The strong link points to a peak in sea-ice-related feedbacks that occurs long before the Arctic becomes ice-free in summer.


https://www.nature.com/articles/s41598-017-04573-0

Models all the way down.  But hey they are "realistic" models. Roll Eyes

CMIP5 and RCP8.5. What's not to like? Grin Grin Grin Grin Grin Grin

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