Australian Politics Forum - expert - says Ukraine is losing the war badly.

MeisterEckhart

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Re: expert - says Ukraine is losing the war badly.
Reply #360 - May 30^th, 2023 at 8:34am

aquascoot wrote on May 30^th, 2023 at 8:28am:

MeisterEckhart wrote on May 30^th, 2023 at 8:13am:

aquascoot wrote on May 30^th, 2023 at 7:21am:

I would imagine the risk of a nuke going off sometime in the next couple of years is about 1 in 3

1 in 3, eh!

.. and (it came to me in a dream) statistics.

Lol

I heard it on a Joe Rogan podcast where he was discussing the issue with a former CIA and former department of defence senior person

What are your assessments master

I would be surprised if the consensus was that the chance was only 1 in 1000

So you didn't base it on anything other than hearing it on Joe Rogan's podcast.

What do you know about the former CIA and former department of defence senior person?

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Bobby. Gold Member Offline Australian Politics Posts: 111641 Melbourne Gender:	Re: expert - says Ukraine is losing the war badly. Reply #361 - May 30^th, 2023 at 8:38am The cowardly Russians are targeting women and children.
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aquascoot

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Re: expert - says Ukraine is losing the war badly.
Reply #362 - May 30^th, 2023 at 9:15am

MeisterEckhart wrote on May 30^th, 2023 at 8:34am:

aquascoot wrote on May 30^th, 2023 at 8:28am:

MeisterEckhart wrote on May 30^th, 2023 at 8:13am:

aquascoot wrote on May 30^th, 2023 at 7:21am:

I would imagine the risk of a nuke going off sometime in the next couple of years is about 1 in 3

1 in 3, eh!

.. and (it came to me in a dream) statistics.

Lol

I heard it on a Joe Rogan podcast where he was discussing the issue with a former CIA and former department of defence senior person

What are your assessments master

I would be surprised if the consensus was that the chance was only 1 in 1000

So you didn't base it on anything other than hearing it on Joe Rogan's podcast.

What do you know about the former CIA and former department of defence senior person?

Was an interesting podcast

They talked about the number of times we have come very very close to a nuclear accident

What was particularly disturbing is just how much the system in both the USA and Russia is designed to make sure that the missiles launch if those at the top decide to launch

This was actually far worse in the USA

On a weekly basis the pentagon send out codes to all the nuclear sites and the two operators at each site turn the keys
Of course these codes are dummy runs
But the operators at the missile sites don't know that
What was also interesting was that if even one missile site operator turns the key
It will activate the system for all the other sites

So if trump or biden decide to send out the order
You can guarantee 100% for sure those missiles will be launched
There is no possibility for anyone to intervene

Sounds like more than one in 1000 chance to me meister

Are you saying the chance is 0
If not give us your guesstimate

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MeisterEckhart

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Re: expert - says Ukraine is losing the war badly.
Reply #363 - May 30^th, 2023 at 10:11am

aquascoot wrote on May 30^th, 2023 at 9:15am:

Sounds like more than one in 1000 chance to me meister

Are you saying the chance is 0
If not give us your guesstimate

Given neither of us knows, the difference between you and me on this is that I know I don't know. You, on the other hand, have deluded yourself that you are certain and you want others to believe you.

Do you know the process by which a presidential nuclear order is decided?

Nixon gave that order multiple times, but it didn't happen. Why not?

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aquascoot

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Re: expert - says Ukraine is losing the war badly.
Reply #364 - May 30^th, 2023 at 11:46am

MeisterEckhart wrote on May 30^th, 2023 at 10:11am:

aquascoot wrote on May 30^th, 2023 at 9:15am:

Sounds like more than one in 1000 chance to me meister

Are you saying the chance is 0
If not give us your guesstimate

Given neither of us knows, the difference between you and me on this is that I know I don't know. You, on the other hand, have deluded yourself that you are certain and you want others to believe you.

Do you know the process by which a presidential nuclear order is decided?

Nixon gave that order multiple times, but it didn't happen. Why not?

that of itself means its possible.

you think adolf, stalin, sadam, bin laden , tojo, gaddafi, idi amin and a stack of others wouldnt have used it?

you think we are more rational today then a few decades ago?

give us a guesstimate

of course no one knows. of course this is a guess.

whats your best guess?

mine is about 1 in 3.

thoughts or would you rather just focus on covid or climate change as our biggest "threats"

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MeisterEckhart

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Re: expert - says Ukraine is losing the war badly.
Reply #365 - May 30^th, 2023 at 11:59am

aquascoot wrote on May 30^th, 2023 at 11:46am:

MeisterEckhart wrote on May 30^th, 2023 at 10:11am:

aquascoot wrote on May 30^th, 2023 at 9:15am:

Sounds like more than one in 1000 chance to me meister

Are you saying the chance is 0
If not give us your guesstimate

Given neither of us knows, the difference between you and me on this is that I know I don't know. You, on the other hand, have deluded yourself that you are certain and you want others to believe you.

Do you know the process by which a presidential nuclear order is decided?

Nixon gave that order multiple times, but it didn't happen. Why not?

that of itself means its possible.

you think adolf, stalin, sadam, bin laden , tojo, gaddafi, idi amin and a stack of others wouldnt have used it?

you think we are more rational today then a few decades ago?

give us a guesstimate

of course no one knows. of course this is a guess.

whats your best guess?

mine is about 1 in 3.

thoughts or would you rather just focus on covid or climate change as our biggest "threats"

that of itself means its possible.

No, it means the opposite: That unilateral presidential nuclear orders are not carried out.

whats your best guess?

Hang on, I'll roll 3 dice... 1 in 342.

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Karnal

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Re: expert - says Ukraine is losing the war badly.
Reply #366 - May 30^th, 2023 at 12:18pm

aquascoot wrote on May 30^th, 2023 at 7:21am:

Bobby. wrote on May 29^th, 2023 at 11:42pm:

Karnal wrote on May 29^th, 2023 at 11:28pm:

Bobby. wrote on May 29^th, 2023 at 7:49pm:

Karnal wrote on May 29^th, 2023 at 7:44pm:

Good news for us all, Bobby. Now, everybody can have some nukes.

I think it's a smart move. Vlad empowers Lukashenko to let her rip on every tinpot nuclear wannabe.

That's democracy, Superior Man style.

Read your Sun Tzu.

Now any country can get some nukes as
long as they kiss Putin's arse.

That's the spirit. The "noble Vlad", the Air Asia of the nuke business.

Sorry - the "N word". The big fella would prefer we kept mum.

There's two N words we don't say, mkay?

Iran has been doing a lot of arse kissing lately -
selling drones to Russia to kill women and children in Ukraine.
Maybe Putin will give some Nukes to Iran?

Entirely possible Bobby

The massive amount of fear mongering done about kovid

And the massive amount of minimal ization done about the threat of nuclear war

Is spectacular in it's stupidity

A lot of old demented people tend to wander

Joe biden might just sleepwalk the world into a rather large catastrophe

I have certainly increased my stores of food and ammunition

Covid has a less than 1 in 1000 death rate

I would imagine the risk of a nuke going off sometime in the next couple of years is about 1 in 3

Good to know, Aquascoot. You're stocking up. Belt and braces, innit. Do you know what you are, dear?

You're a survivalist.

It may not happen overnight but it will happen, no? Yes, a one in three chance of total annihilation.

Don't mention the N word. The big fella might have mentioned it once, but he thinks he got away with it.

It was only Tucker. He's a friend of ours.

I hope you've stored lots of green, leafy vegetables. It's important to keep regular and stay in shape, no?

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JC Denton Gold Member Offline Posts: 5477 Gender:	Re: expert - says Ukraine is losing the war badly. Reply #367 - May 30^th, 2023 at 2:09pm there is little chance of nuclear war, no one is starting nuclear armageddon because of this conflict, nor is NATO going to directly intervene, they don't care that much. this is all theatre just like covid was, ignore it and go about your day.
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Karnal

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Re: expert - says Ukraine is losing the war badly.
Reply #368 - May 30^th, 2023 at 2:55pm

Bobby. wrote on May 29^th, 2023 at 11:42pm:

Karnal wrote on May 29^th, 2023 at 11:28pm:

Bobby. wrote on May 29^th, 2023 at 7:49pm:

Karnal wrote on May 29^th, 2023 at 7:44pm:

Good news for us all, Bobby. Now, everybody can have some nukes.

I think it's a smart move. Vlad empowers Lukashenko to let her rip on every tinpot nuclear wannabe.

That's democracy, Superior Man style.

Read your Sun Tzu.

Now any country can get some nukes as
long as they kiss Putin's arse.

That's the spirit. The "noble Vlad", the Air Asia of the nuke business.

Sorry - the "N word". The big fella would prefer we kept mum.

There's two N words we don't say, mkay?

Iran has been doing a lot of arse kissing lately -
selling drones to Russia to kill women and children in Ukraine.
Maybe Putin will give some Nukes to Iran?

He's been doing that since the big fella cancelled Hussein Obama's deal, Bobby.

Iran's kicking along nicely. They should be using the N word by Christmas.

We will make America great again, no?

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Karnal

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Re: expert - says Ukraine is losing the war badly.
Reply #369 - May 30^th, 2023 at 2:57pm

JC Denton wrote on May 30^th, 2023 at 2:09pm:

there is little chance of nuclear war, no one is starting nuclear armageddon because of this conflict, nor is NATO going to directly intervene, they don't care that much. this is all theatre just like covid was, ignore it and go about your day.

I don't think Ukrainians can afford to do that, JS. Do you think Vlad should try to stop blowing them up?

I'm curious.

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Karnal

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Re: expert - says Ukraine is losing the war badly.
Reply #370 - May 30^th, 2023 at 3:05pm

MeisterEckhart wrote on May 30^th, 2023 at 11:59am:

aquascoot wrote on May 30^th, 2023 at 11:46am:

MeisterEckhart wrote on May 30^th, 2023 at 10:11am:

aquascoot wrote on May 30^th, 2023 at 9:15am:

Sounds like more than one in 1000 chance to me meister

Are you saying the chance is 0
If not give us your guesstimate

Given neither of us knows, the difference between you and me on this is that I know I don't know. You, on the other hand, have deluded yourself that you are certain and you want others to believe you.

Do you know the process by which a presidential nuclear order is decided?

Nixon gave that order multiple times, but it didn't happen. Why not?

that of itself means its possible.

you think adolf, stalin, sadam, bin laden , tojo, gaddafi, idi amin and a stack of others wouldnt have used it?

you think we are more rational today then a few decades ago?

give us a guesstimate

of course no one knows. of course this is a guess.

whats your best guess?

mine is about 1 in 3.

thoughts or would you rather just focus on covid or climate change as our biggest "threats"

that of itself means its possible.

No, it means the opposite: That unilateral presidential nuclear orders are not carried out.

whats your best guess?

Hang on, I'll roll 3 dice... 1 in 342.

There's s 33.3% chance of Aquascoot using the N word, Meister.

It's actually a lot higher if the big fella wins the primaries.

If Meatball wins, he'll be saying the W word a lot. You know, woke.

The next election will be a lot like watching Sesame Street. Poor old Sleepy Joe, eh? His response is predictable too.

Oh, come on, man...

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JC Denton

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Re: expert - says Ukraine is losing the war badly.
Reply #371 - May 30^th, 2023 at 3:18pm

Karnal wrote on May 30^th, 2023 at 2:57pm:

JC Denton wrote on May 30^th, 2023 at 2:09pm:

there is little chance of nuclear war, no one is starting nuclear armageddon because of this conflict, nor is NATO going to directly intervene, they don't care that much. this is all theatre just like covid was, ignore it and go about your day.

I don't think Ukrainians can afford to do that, JS. Do you think Vlad should try to stop blowing them up?

I'm curious.

i don't know what that has to do with my statement

but i would be running as far as possible from the SBU thugs as a young ukrainian man if they came to 'recruit' me like i've seen in videos on twitter many times before

like this guy

https://twitter.com/ReggieMeezer/status/1622662877730545681

https://twitter.com/NixinWolf/status/1646893540708962305

https://twitter.com/MeridionaliAura/status/1654225714026266624

there's just no shortage of these and they're great

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Bobby.

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Re: expert - says Ukraine is losing the war badly.
Reply #372 - May 30^th, 2023 at 5:54pm

Ukraine retaliates with its own drones hitting Moscow:

https://edition.cnn.com/europe/live-news/russia-ukraine-war-news-05-30-23/index....

12 min ago

Moscow airports remain open after drone attacks, Russian officials say

From CNN's Radina Gigova

Moscow airports are functioning as usual following a drone attack that damaged several buildings in the capital city and the region, Russian state news agency TASS reported Tuesday.

All airports in the capital region are operating under normal conditions as of 8:00 a.m., and air traffic control dispatchers are working within normal limits, TASS reported, citing the press service of the Federal Air Transport Agency.

Russia’s Ministry of Defense has claimed that Ukraine is responsible for the alleged drone attack against Moscow on Tuesday. Kyiv is yet to comment on the incident.

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Karnal

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Re: expert - says Ukraine is losing the war badly.
Reply #373 - May 30^th, 2023 at 6:31pm

JC Denton wrote on May 30^th, 2023 at 3:18pm:

Karnal wrote on May 30^th, 2023 at 2:57pm:

JC Denton wrote on May 30^th, 2023 at 2:09pm:

there is little chance of nuclear war, no one is starting nuclear armageddon because of this conflict, nor is NATO going to directly intervene, they don't care that much. this is all theatre just like covid was, ignore it and go about your day.

I don't think Ukrainians can afford to do that, JS. Do you think Vlad should try to stop blowing them up?

I'm curious.

i don't know what that has to do with my statement

but i would be running as far as possible from the SBU thugs as a young ukrainian man if they came to 'recruit' me like i've seen in videos on twitter many times before

like this guy

https://twitter.com/ReggieMeezer/status/1622662877730545681

https://twitter.com/NixinWolf/status/1646893540708962305

https://twitter.com/MeridionaliAura/status/1654225714026266624

there's just no shortage of these and they're great

I see. Let's ask an easier question then. If you were Ukrainian, would you want to integrate your country/bomb site with the EU or Russia Russia Russia?

I'm curious.

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Karnal

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Re: expert - says Ukraine is losing the war badly.
Reply #374 - May 30^th, 2023 at 6:44pm

Bobby. wrote on May 30^th, 2023 at 5:54pm:

Ukraine retaliates with its own drones hitting Moscow:

https://edition.cnn.com/europe/live-news/russia-ukraine-war-news-05-30-23/index....

12 min ago

Moscow airports remain open after drone attacks, Russian officials say

From CNN's Radina Gigova

Moscow airports are functioning as usual following a drone attack that damaged several buildings in the capital city and the region, Russian state news agency TASS reported Tuesday.

All airports in the capital region are operating under normal conditions as of 8:00 a.m., and air traffic control dispatchers are working within normal limits, TASS reported, citing the press service of the Federal Air Transport Agency.

Russia’s Ministry of Defense has claimed that Ukraine is responsible for the alleged drone attack against Moscow on Tuesday. Kyiv is yet to comment on the incident.

So unfair, Bobby. Ukraine has no right to do THAT. What do those mean old Ukrainians think they're doing blowing up Russian buildings like this? What do they think this is?

A war?

Someone should tell Zalensky to mind his manners, dear. Russia is engaged in a harmless security operation. Vlad's a peacemaker. Genius!

Oh, that's beautiful - Russia gets all that cheap real estate for a lousy $2 worth of sanctions. The big fella's right, as usual.

So unfair!

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