JC Denton wrote on May 26^th, 2023 at 8:43am:



Carmel and many like him are practising more or a religion
Then an honest assessment

I think there is really nothing that Putin or trump could do
That would alter their mind about Putin or trump
That sort of concrete thinking is in no way different from a fundamentalist religious perspective

The left are very prone to this sort of analysis

The right not so much
If you run a small business or you are a small tradesman
You are constantly rubbing up against people and market forces
At this forces you to keep your sanity

There are no such forces operating on the lone wolf social justice keyboard warrior

Russia has lost an entire generation of smart workers, dear, lost either to exile or the war.

Banished from Europe, where it was economically integrated. It now has to sell more oil to China and India for less, and this deal is far from sustainable. No country wants to be a fossil fuel economy alone. The gulf states are doing everything they can to diversify and get out.

Russia is on the UN Security Council with veto powers. That's a superpower.

GDP-growth is down, with Russia's own accounts far from believable. Russian foreign reserves have been frozen, billions in capital lost, the foreign wealth of it's entire kleptocracy seized. There's no Western foreign investment or trade, and an over-reliance on one fickle fair-weather friend: Chi-na.

The West has locked Russia out, with sanctions biting hard:

[url]The evidence presented here suggests that these measures have been highly effective since, perhaps, mid-2022 and that the Russian economy by the end of 2023 will be in serious difficulties. By this time, it may become clear whether the war on Ukraine can be maintained militarily and whether the Russian regime in its current form will survive.[/url]

https://www.economicsobservatory.com/what-is-the-current-state-of-the-russian-ec...

This is not bullshit, dear, it's the truth. If you want to see how insulated economies survive with a sole reliance on China, look at North Korea.

The damage to Russian soft power, of course, is incalculable. Its former Soviet satelites are looking for friends elsewhere, China is soaking them in. It has become personal, the world turning on Russian people too. Outside Russia, Russians can't apologise enough. Russians have become the new Germans.

On the hard power front, Finland has joined NATO, Sweden's nearly there, and Europe's increasing weapons spending. Trump couldn't do this - Putin could.

Don't kid yourself, JC. Fuck with the G7, this is what you get. Remember this: it used to be the G8.

Ever get the feeling you've been cheated?

MeisterEckhart wrote on May 26^th, 2023 at 7:19pm:


You really have no idea don't you?
Must be hard seeing a world through only Western &/or Media eyes.

Quote:


i think all this doomering is mostly b.s

https://www.independent.co.uk/news/business/uk-recession-economy-g7-imf-warning-b2272434.html

russia is not 'solely reliant' on china, which i noted in my post above, north korea is not comparable to a state that is greatly self-sufficient in commodities and rsources because it is a small hermetically sealed command economy fiefdom with an enormous preponderance of its economy spent on the military - and even then, it's still pretty orderly as far as places go, because koreans are koreans regardless of the economic system they're under

you should know of all people that the economic centre of the world has been shifting away from the united states and europe for a very long time now. asians don't give a f*k about ukraine, and even NATO states/allies (such as turkey, which now has a larger economy than italy) don't really care either, even if they formally pay it lip service in rhetoric here and there. it's funny how an actual racist like myself has a less patronising and whitey-centric view of the world than an intersectionaist like you! but we know who the real white supremacists are deep down.

look at iran by comparison - which is more analogous to russia than north korea (and still not even) for an effect on these incredible sanctions you're touting as so devasting. iran isnt so bad is it?

i think you'll find russia will mostly be 'fine', and that you're just believing what you want to based on what you would like to happen, rather than what is likely to happen, because the invasion of ukraine is emotionally distressing to you for some reason. i personally don't care that much who wins - i think putin is complacent and a submediocre warlord  - ukraine has some pathway to victory but it depends more internally on russia - and putin himself - than whatever it itself does.

aquascoot wrote on May 26^th, 2023 at 6:00pm:

Predictions are utterances of faith, not truth.

MeisterEckhart wrote on May 26^th, 2023 at 6:21pm:



when bob hawke says
no child will be living in poverty in 2000, you cant call that a lie until you see how it plays out

when john hoard says there will be no gst under a government i lead, you cant immediately call that a lie.

when colin powell says that sadam has weapons of mass destruction , again, you cant tell.
when rachel maddow says that you cant spread covid once you get jabbed, we still had to wait and see if that was a lie or not
when cnn say ukraine is winning and the hindu times say russia is winning, how can you tell.

you will find out in 12 months (maybe less).

my prediction, which i believe to be true is that ukraine will have to give up some territory and zelensky will go to hollywood.