'Brits are dying in their tens of thousands - and we don't really have any idea why'
Tens of thousands more Brits died than usual from May to December 2022, excluding Covid as a cause of death, raising serious questions as to why so many died
By Kieren Williams News Reporter mirror.co.uk
15:19, 11 May 2023 UPDATED 22:37, 11 May 2023
Tens of thousands more Brits were dying than expected and experts aren’t quite sure why that is.
From May to December last year, there were 32,441 excess deaths in England and Wales, excluding deaths from Covid.
Excess deaths are defined as the number of people who died above the five-year average - worked out excluding 2020 due to how Covid spiked death figures that year.
This means that over 32,000 Brits would’ve been expected to be alive, but died according to Office for National Statistics (ONS) figures across this period.
These shocking figures raised a number of important questions about what is happening to the country’s populations, how it's changing, and why so many more people are dying.
In short, the population in 2016, is different to that of 2023, and Professor Kevin McConway, Emeritus Professor of Applied Statistics, The Open University, is one of a number who have pointed this out.
Using age-standardised mortality rates (ASMR) does account for these changes, and when used goes some of the way to perhaps explaining the huge numbers of deaths.
It offers the percentage for which a specified time period is above or below the five-year average.
For December 2022, the number of excess deaths, 5,900, is 13.5 per cent above the five-year average.
But the ASMR is only 5.8 per cent above the five-year average - this explains that perhaps some of the tens of thousands of deaths should’ve been more expected, but still doesn’t quite explain why they happened in the first place.
When you look across 2022, the ASMR usually gives a lower percentage than the percentage of straight excess deaths, but not far enough to eliminate the deaths or explain them away entirely.
However, ASMR has its own issues, as Professor McConway pointed out.
He said: “To calculate the ASMRs, you need to know the population size in each age group.
“ONS could not (yet) use estimates based on the 2021 Census results because they are not yet available for the relevant dates, and in fact they used projections based on population estimates from 2018.
“These do not currently take into account major effects, such as the Covid pandemic, that would have affected the population size and pattern of ages.”
Which still leaves tens of thousands of dead Brits, with no clear explanation as to quite how they died.--------------------IT'S THE VAX STUPID!
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