Raw material and logistics inflation coupled with downward price pressures from auctions have led to an unsustainable situation where wind OEMs are selling at a loss, with the sector unable to deliver Europe's planned tripling of wind capacity by 2030, industry leaders have warned.

“The state of the supply chain is ultimately unhealthy right now,” GE Renewable Energy chief executive for onshore wind, Sheri Hickok, told a panel at the WindEurope 2022 conference in Bilbao on Tuesday.

“It is unhealthy because we have an inflationary market that is beyond what anybody anticipated even last year. Steel is going up three times.”

Steel for offshore wind towers is currently being purchased at over $2,000 per tonne, Hickok gave as example, adding that the prices of copper, carbon and logistics had also soared.

“It is really ridiculous to think how we can sustain a supply chain in a growing industry with these kind of pressures.”

After hefty price hikes last year in the wake of the Covid-19 pandemic “things were higher but stabilising,” Hickok said, but added that with Russia’s war in Ukraine, the entire system had “unhinched” again in the past eight weeks, making it unsustainable at an unprecedented level of uncertainty.

The GE executive said she is very fearful for the entire wind industry ecosystem.

“Right now, different suppliers within the industry are reducing their footprint, they are reducing jobs in Europe,” she explained.

“If the government thinks that on a dime, this supply chain is going to be able to turn around and meet two to three times the demand, it is not reasonable.”

The European Commission’s recent REPowerEU plan, formulated in response to Russia's invasion of Ukraine, wants wind power capacity to soar from 190GW today to 480GW by 2030.
Destructive loop

Nordex chief executive José Luis Blanco stressed that even before the Ukraine war, the economics in the wind industry had been destroyed due to price pressures from competitive tenders coupled with a low visibility of wind capacity pipelines due to failed government policies.

“We are still selling at loss, because of the dynamic of auctions, the low predictability of volumes,” Blanco told the conference.

“We are investing in volumes in trust in market dynamics, then the volume doesn’t come, then a factory is empty, [and then] it is better [to have] some cash flow than no cash flow — and [consequently] the sector enters into a self-destructive loop.”

Blanco also said if Europe wants to triple its wind power capacity, it needs to better support the independence of the supply chain.

Currently, some 85% of the industry’s components are, however, coming from China, he said.

“The energy independence is supported by a supply-chain dependency policy. This a huge risk.”

Blanco was not only referring to rare earths, but said “normal things” such as metallic shafts in turbines, 95% of which are sourced in China.
All onshore OEMs in trouble

Enercon’s new chief executive Jürgen Zeschky went even further, saying “all European onshore OEMs are in trouble.”

Over the past eight years, cost was the only driver for developments, with low levelised costs of energy and low turbine prices driving the whole business, he told WindEurope 2022.

“We have reached a low cost base, but at the price of outsourcing to low-cost countries,” Zeschky admitted.

“If you look at Europe and Germany, we are constantly losing jobs in industry by relocating to other places.”

But the situation has changed fundamentally, he pointed out.

Due to Russia’s war in Ukraine, “we are faced with a situation, where it is not only about cost, but about an independent, resilient and reliable energy situation in Europe”.

To have sustainable energy generation, Europe needs a sustainable industry, and thus has to overcome being constricted to the lowest cost, he explained.

“That needs to change.”

https://www.rechargenews.com/wind/were-all-in-trouble-wind-turbine-makers-sellin...

Wind turbines are such an eyesore.


We need more of these!

lee wrote on May 31^st, 2022 at 7:14pm:


Show me a wind turbine that generates the same amount of electricity as a coal fired power station.

Johnnie wrote on May 31^st, 2022 at 7:23pm:



Generators need copper one on each tower.

Towers need steel.

The magnets use rare earths.

https://www.usgs.gov/media/images/critical-mineral-commodities-renewable-energy

"Clean energy demand for critical minerals set to soar as the world pursues net zero goals"

https://www.iea.org/news/clean-energy-demand-for-critical-minerals-set-to-soar-a...

random wrote on May 31^st, 2022 at 7:07pm:



it's hilarious how lee always tries to claim that the small windmill is unsustainable but the giant steel mill,with 1000 times the raw materials required,is perfectly fine

John Smith wrote on May 31^st, 2022 at 7:41pm:



Poor Guido. What small windmill? The ones used by the dutch or the ones used by Aussie farmers?

So this giant steel mill what is it going to use for energy? Green hydrogen according to studies returns 18-46% of the power in the round from generating the hydrogen to powering something with that hydrogen.

https://www.spglobal.com/marketintelligence/en/news-insights/latest-news-headlin...
..Again too funny.

Johnnie wrote on May 31^st, 2022 at 7:38pm:


Even the rare earth price is going up.

"Lithium Prices Have Nearly Doubled In 2022 Amid Insane Commodity Rally"

https://finance.yahoo.com/news/lithium-prices-nearly-doubled-2022-170000490.html

Copper is also up.

https://www.dailyfx.com/copper-prices

"Cobalt prices to rise as demand-supply deficit widens: analysts "

https://www.spglobal.com/commodityinsights/en/market-insights/latest-news/metals...

Cobalt too.

random wrote on May 31^st, 2022 at 7:59pm:



The best poor randy can do is mindless repetition.

lee wrote on May 31^st, 2022 at 8:00pm:


I'm guessing that it takes many repetitions to get something into your thick skull.  All the scientists on the planet have so far failed.

lee wrote on May 31^st, 2022 at 7:53pm:



are you pretending a windmill, and a coal burning electricity generator are even remotely similar in size? or use anywhere near the same amount of raw materials ?






you're stupidity is only surpassed by your ----------

ohh wait, nothing surpasses your stupidity

random wrote on May 31^st, 2022 at 7:07pm:



You do realise, Greta  - no, you don't  -, that the picture of your second image shows water vapour (steam), not 'pollution'.

lee wrote on May 31^st, 2022 at 8:07pm:

Its already been factored into it in places like Pt Augusta where they blew up the fossil fuel generators and replaced them with wind and solar. SA can hardly use all the power they produce most days.

lee wrote on May 31^st, 2022 at 9:29pm:


Keep going Lee, and then take into account power being exported.

lee wrote on May 31^st, 2022 at 10:17pm:

That is good going!  A lot of the time when the wind is blowing and there is full sun in SA they don't even switch on all the solar farms, for some reason those on the east coast would rather shovel dirty coal into their generators than pay for green power.

Johnnie wrote on Jun 1^st, 2022 at 4:55am:


You should look at grid instability with renewables. Plus the solar companies are paid to produce whether it is actually on line or not.

"The Renewable Energy Target is a subsidy. Building new wind and solar costs more than existing coal and gas generation. The RET enables solar and wind providers to sell renewable energy certificates to make up the difference between the electricity they sell and the costs of building new power stations. The cost of the certificates—the subsidy to renewables—is paid by electricity consumers through their power bills.

This cost totals approximately $2 billion per year."

https://reneweconomy.com.au/ret-market-distorting-subsidy-renewable-energy-63472...

lee wrote on Jun 1^st, 2022 at 11:14am:

Australia’s fossil-fuelled power stations are currently subsidised to the tune of $7- 20 billion a year.

Grid stability has always been something to deal with, not just since renewables, the big batteries are helping to deal with that these days, so they say, along with the old methods using electrical gadgets.

When SA was running on renewables it doesn't mean the gas fired generators were switched off, they provide stability and excess was exported. It still doesn't make sense to build solar and wind farms if they have them switched off, probably more to do with economics.

Johnnie wrote on Jun 1^st, 2022 at 1:23pm:


Everything to do with economics; inadequate PRIVATE profit-driven market economics that is.

Which is why we need the public sector to fund the smart NATIONAL grid connecting rooftop solar AND wind and solar farms, to home batteries AND large scale pumped hydro storage

Johnnie wrote on Jun 2^nd, 2022 at 4:06pm:


If we are talking OZ powered by near 100% renewables ASAP, we need the vast (available)  capacity of rooftop solar,  as well as wind and solar farms.

The government can subsidize a battery industry in Oz, given we have the resources, and can also subsidize replacement costs (see MMT; if the resources are  available for purchase by the currency-issuing government , then the government can buy them with money created 'out of nothing'....which is how all money is created, a privilege reserved for private money lenders in the current dysfunctional monetary orthodoxy.  Note: the government is not increasing the money supply which would risk creating inflation,  the government is merely by-passing the market, in order to turn eg, lithium into batteries).

The barrier is dysfunctional profit-driven market economics, when it comes to provision of an essential service. 

The energy sector must be nationalized....just as Playford did in SA;  but now the situation is a transition to free sunshine and wind, as opposed to transition to cheap Leigh Creek brown coal in SA.

" In 1946, Playford created the Electricity Trust of South Australia (ETSA). He had nationalised the Adelaide Electric Supply Company, which as a private company, held a monopoly over electricity supplies in Adelaide and had refused to use the State's brown coal supply.


...because the private company wanted to maintain the fatter profits available from using more expensive black coal. Profits over people, as usual.

The ALP was delighted; they called Playford (a Liberal) the "best socialist premier" they ever had....

Johnnie wrote on Jun 5^th, 2022 at 5:54pm:


Due to the erroneous neoliberal  privatization dogma which was established in the 80's (Thatcher/Reagan/ Hawke years), overthrowing the successful post war  Keynesnian 'welfare state' public ownership policy. (because economists misunderstood the stagflation in the 70's caused by M.E oil embargo, and competition from Asia resulting in loss of 1st world industrial manufacturing). 

"The Electricity Trust of South Australia (ETSA) was the South Australian Government-owned monopoly vertically integrated electricity provider from 1946 until its privatisation in 1999".

Quote:


Depends on individual roof areas, available sun etc:

"Can I run my air conditioner on battery power?
The short answer is yes. With the proper equipment and enough batteries, you can run your RV AC unit on batteries. In addition to the lithium batteries, you'll need an inverter to invert the DC battery power into AC power for most air conditioning units.16 Aug 2021"


Quote:


Re large grid-scale vanadium batteries, powered by long-distance inter-connectors from solar and wind farms:

"Are vanadium flow batteries the future?
"The emerging need for large-scale electricity storage makes vanadium redox flow batteries a major potential future use of vanadium," USGS wrote. "Because of their large-scale storage capacity, development of VRBs could prompt increases in the use of wind, solar, and other renewable, intermittent power sources."15 May 2022


Quote:


Addressed above, we don't have grid scale vanadium batteries at present. And add on a few Snowy 2's for storage; should just about get us through the night and  at times when the wind isn't blowing.

Quote:


Yes, except even Oz gas - which we have plenty of - is owned by profit-gouging private companies who prefer to export overseas....as we are now experiencing...

lee wrote on Jun 6^th, 2022 at 4:58pm:


7000 tons for one near-1 GWh battery...costing c.$14 billion? (couldn't see that figure in the article, only that "vanadium batteries are competitive with lithium batteries").

lee wrote on Jun 7^th, 2022 at 3:19pm:


Ah, $10, 000 per ton, not $1000 per lb....(= $2 million per ton, round figures.

So...$70 million for a 1 GWH battery. Not bad actually.

thegreatdivide wrote on Jun 6^th, 2022 at 4:40pm:

The brown coal from Leigh Creek did a good job, a dirty job but a good job. Too bad we have so much good black coal around but its going to have to stay in the ground for the good of the planet. We should have gone nuclear 30 plus years ago.

Batteries can't even run a good size home reverse cycle A/C for more than a couple of hours. These vanadium batteries you speak of might be good but no battery is going to run industry, or even a small city without industry, or even a big town. Millions of batteries might do it.

Faced with the decision of whether to shut down coal plants or renewables, power companies have shut down coal plants.

"Coal absolutely loses the battle," Mr Buckley said.

"I think COVID is really creating a pause which allows a strategic rethink by power companies and governments."

Last month, Japan announced it was closing 100 of its 140 coal power plants by 2030.

Japan takes 45 per cent of Australia's thermal coal exports.

Mr Buckley said the closure of coal plants around the world would "categorically" affect demand for Australian coal, though it may be too late for this to stall the proposed Adani coal mine in Queensland's Galilee Basin.

"Adani's sunk cost may have gone past the point of no return," he said.

https://www.abc.net.au/triplej/programs/hack/world-global-coal-power-capacity-has-fell-in-2020/12523904

Johnnie wrote on Jun 8^th, 2022 at 10:10pm:



Great meme.

Note: Australia has over 20 coal power plants in operation with about 7 commissioned after 2020 and projected to be still operating after 2050.


If this tables info on Australia is all BS it is probable that the rest of the numbers are at a similar standard.

Dnarever wrote on Jun 13^th, 2022 at 12:24pm:


Not so.  Only 19 operating.  None were commissioned after 2020 (latest 2009). 
Only one operating after 2050 (Millmerra).

List of coal-fired power stations in Australia.

AusGeoff wrote on Jun 14^th, 2022 at 12:54am:


er... nitpicking stats?

Fact is we should have been rolling out solar/wind. transmission and storage ASAP, in the last decade.

lee wrote on Jun 15^th, 2022 at 4:32pm:


One bloke said Oz has 20 coal plants, the other 19...and a number  (or 1) of those plants  will still be operating in 2050. 

Fact is we should have been rolling out solar/wind, transmission and storage ASAP, in the last decade.

Have another go at accusing me of 'lying'. 

lee wrote on Jun 15^th, 2022 at 5:16pm:


The point is we must maximize the rollout of solar/wind, transmission and storage, to ensure a managed closure of coal plants ASAP, and certainly exit coal way before 2050,with gas acting as as the go-between.

We will probably have to nationalize coal in the Eastern States, since the private owners of Oz gas have and are  screwing us totally. 

Quote:


You are a confused monkey; I misspelled it, I didn't accuse you of lying when you first used the term.

lee wrote on Jun 16^th, 2022 at 6:20pm:


No one's dreaming except the deniers.

43% reduction by  2030, only 8 years away. with only c. 50 deniers in the Oz parliament. 

Quote:


No I accept the global demand to exit coal, and that  nationalization of coal will probably be required, as the fossil price -gougers 'dig in' ( excuse the pun).

As for a 'free pass' for gas:  today the government suspended the free market in gas, to ensure supply ....we will likely have to nationalize the private gas-price-gougers as well....

lee wrote on Jun 16^th, 2022 at 7:53pm:


The UN welcomed Albo's commitment today. If anyone can achieve a 43% reduction in CO2 emissions by 2030, Oz can.
(...vast sunny deserts and vast windy coastline, for a mere 25 million people). 

Quote:


I expect everyone around the globe will wake up, in the years ahead,  that public financing, not private,  will be necessary to complete the transition in a timely manner.

Meanwhile in Oz, hopefully the Greens will allow as much gas usage as is required, while we  transition  to green,  ASAP.
I think they will want to avoid the mistakes of a decade ago; and there should be no reason why we need to develop  NEW gas fields....

lee wrote on Jun 17^th, 2022 at 7:04pm:
only to your hardy band of AGW deniers.

Quote:


Certainly funding by the BIS will blow away the private fossil price gougers.

Quote:


The Pilbara can be exporting green electricity to Singapore well before then.

thegreatdivide wrote on Jun 17^th, 2022 at 6:49pm:


Quote:


It will work, as Tim Buckley said today :the cheapest fastest NW energy in Oz is rooftop and grid upgrade.

Quote:


Buckley would make a fool of you in 2 minutes flat.

Buckley loves renewables. He gets people to invest in them. Subsidy mining at its finest.

thegreatdivide wrote on Jun 20^th, 2022 at 1:07pm:


Ah yes the pumped hydro that loses so much in pushing water up hill.

thegreatdivide wrote on Jun 20^th, 2022 at 1:07pm:


Edit: The study used 62.5% nameplate capacity not generated capacity. Capacity factor is about 30%.

And the sun doesn't shine all the time. Even during the day. And batteries won't cut it, As has been explaoinde4d to you many times.

As I said Neither Buckley nor you know even basic engineering.,

Where is the scope in WA for pumped hydro? it is largely flat.

thegreatdivide wrote on Jun 20^th, 2022 at 4:06pm:


The excess? First you have to have enough.

thegreatdivide wrote on Jun 20^th, 2022 at 4:06pm:



You mean the  "battery of the nation" that they had to stop sending to Victoria because there wasn't enough water?

thegreatdivide wrote on Jun 20^th, 2022 at 4:06pm:



Another green pipedream.

But why didn't you tell us more on this you beaut rooftop solar. 

In case you think I am a numpty like you -Excerpt from the study referenced -

"A PV intensity of 156.25 W/m2 (based on generic 250 W modules sized 1.6 m x 1.0 m) was applied to the usable areas to determine PV capacity for each zone and postal area (POA)."


https://apvi.org.au/wp-content/uploads/2019/06/isf-rooftop-solar-potential-repor...

Edit: That was wrong Sri. A 250w module at 1.6m² that would make 1M² 250/1.6 = 156.25. So they are using 100% capacity factor. a 30% capacity factor would be 46.875w/m²


lee wrote on Jun 20^th, 2022 at 2:25pm:


You don't do detail well do you?

Frank wrote on Jun 22^nd, 2022 at 5:03pm:


Just goes to show there is no future for energy, in markets. Good, old-fashioned nationalization is the way forward.

Quote:


Correct; hence the need to free the taxpayer from the clutches of the greedy private financiers who still claim the sole right to create money - with interest. 

https://www.ozpolitic.com/forum/YaBB.pl?num=1645944963/195#198

(See #196 for the description of money creation).

Quote:


By Leonardo da Vinci? He was certainly a man of vision....

Renewables?
https://www.abc.net.au/news/2022-06-28/sa-agl-wind-farms-tesla-battery-fined-ove...