Despite his disastrous logistical miscalculations, his anger at the Russian military’s strategic incompetence, his shock-and-awe battering by unwavering Ukrainian resistance, his underestimation of the world’s resolve against him, crippling sanctions, his surprise at NATO’s unity and self-control, Europe’s unanimous solidarity with Ukraine, his purging of his inner-circle advisors - indicating paranoia - Putin is rolling the dice for an outcome favouring himself, Russia, and Russia-aligned Ukrainians.

Whatever his presumptions were, from which he has now been rudely disabused, or even what his original objectives were, he appears to now have two goals in mind:

To drive all resistant Ukrainians west by all-out, scorched-earth, destruction of eastern Ukrainian cities, followed by an ethnic cleansing of all remaining non-Russian-aligned eastern Ukrainians.

To impose a partition of Ukraine into east (including Crimea) and west. The former likely to be subsumed into Russia (as opposed to being recognized as the sovereign nation of ‘East Ukraine’).

I’d bet this is the deal that the world will accept, with NATO and Europe tasked with convincing Zelensky of its realpolitik imperative; leaving Zelensky to sell the outcome to Ukrainians.

Bobby. wrote on Jun 15^th, 2022 at 12:32pm:

It's all popcorn for the masses.

Ukraine will not be able to control and govern its eastern lands even if it beat the Russians back to the Russian border; this is what it appears NATO and the west have always known.

https://pjmedia.com/spengler/2022/06/13/the-ukraine-echo-chamber-goes-full-chern...

The lid blew off the Ukraine echo chamber this week as Russian artillery pulverized Ukrainian forces in Donbas. Ukraine has lost 10,000 dead, 40,000 to 50,000 wounded, and 8,000 captured. It is running out of Soviet-era ammunition for its limited artillery. A month ago the whole American body politic, from progressive left to neo-conservatives, drank the victory Kool-Aid. Remember when Russia’s incompetent, corrupt army was about to be swept from the field? As is their wont, the Russians blundered around and took losses for a few weeks before figuring out how to wage an old-fashioned, World War II-style artillery campaign. “It’s been so long since anyone fought a conventional war that they had to remember how to do it,” said a European military observer.
...
We have, in short, another Afghanistan, hatched by the same sort of group-think. Will the miscreants who cooked up this catastrophe face any consequences? Not a chance. There is safety in numbers. Except for a few cranks and oddballs like Sen. Rand Paul (R-Ky.) and your correspondent, every prominent conservative pundit and politician went full Jonestown. Russia’s initial muddle prompted a few weeks of intoxicated triumphalism.

That’s turned into a collective hangover and an orgy of ass-covering. The supposed renaissance of Western unity dissolves into bickering and recrimination. Putin sells oil to China and India at a $30 per barrel discount, while Americans pay more than $5 for gas at the pump.

thegreatdivide wrote on Jun 15^th, 2022 at 1:57pm:

There is no governing international body or order that prevents belligerent expansionist nations from intimidation, annexation and invasion.

There never could be. Belligerent militaristic regimes commit these acts, then dare their opposition to take them on.

Overreach is what ultimately brings them down.

Shall we outlaw the blueness of the sky while we're at it?

How does a document prevent belligerent militaristic regimes from intimidation, annexation and invasion?

No one agreed with Mao's invasion of Tibet and the young Dalai Lama appealed to the US and India for assistance. Both nations supported Tibet's cause, but could not prevent Mao's murder machine from crushing Tibetans due to a multiple of reasons; remoteness being one problem.

Law, whether national or international, is more than  a "document"  (...commit a criminal act - and see how you get on in your own country....)