tickleandrose wrote on Mar 29
th, 2022 at 8:53am:
I think the soft end of the war may be in sight. Over the past months or so, the Russians and Ukrainians have traded blows. Now, the dust began to settle. I maintain my prediction of a divided East and West Ukraine. With East Ukraine loyal to Russia, creating a security buffer zone for the Russians. The whole war is about where the border get to draw between these two states.
If history is to repeat itself. I think there will be cease fire, a DMZ, and both East and West Ukraine would claim that one day they want to once again unify Ukraine under their rule. Another Korean situation.
This is just the latest in many similar proxy wars fought between the West and Russia.
Putin went for the whole of Ukraine believing pro-Russian sympathies to be the predominant mood of Ukrainians.
He was wrong.
So he's focussing on what he's sure he can keep - eastern Ukraine.
And neither the EU nor NATO nor anyone else in the region (including even the west Ukrainians) have any illusions about eastern Ukraine. Its people are culturally and linguistically Russian.
I don't believe eastern Ukraine will become an independent nation. It will be annexed by and subsumed into Russia, with the support of the pro-Russian populace, as Austria was by Nazi Germany. However, there will be no decoupling from Russia, like there was with Austria from Germany.
The union will be permanent.
Putin is in the process of ethnically cleansing the east of pro-Ukrainian people by genocide and a complete obliteration of its cities and towns such that, when this ends, they will be rebuilt by Russians and pro-Russians; being populated by Russians and pro-Russians.