Australian Politics Forum - 17 feet of snow in California

thegreatdivide

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Re: 17 feet of snow in California
Reply #180 - May 3^rd, 2022 at 9:46pm

lee wrote on May 3^rd, 2022 at 7:56pm:

For Snowy 2.0 to operate at full cyclical capacity, Dam 2 must be empty to receive the water. That would entail emptying Dam 2 into the smaller Dam 3 and from there to Dam 4 at the bottom of the system. This water could not be used again to generate electricity. This “lost” water would have generated 60 GWh worth of electricity in the Tumut 3 scheme."

https://theconversation.com/snowy-2-0-will-not-produce-nearly-as-much-electricit...

Just another one of those engineering challenges.

But why would you need to generate ANY electricity from the scheme, at times when there is already excess renewable energy in the national grid, electricity which is looking for a temporary home, ie, in storage?

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lee

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Re: 17 feet of snow in California
Reply #181 - May 4^th, 2022 at 12:04pm

thegreatdivide wrote on May 3^rd, 2022 at 9:46pm:

But why would you need to generate ANY electricity from the scheme, at times when there is already excess renewable energy in the national grid, electricity which is looking for a temporary home, ie, in storage?

And when will this excess energy come to pass? I see SA had renewable only for one hour on a Sunday. That does not inspire confidence.

You need at least 5 days reserves to account for cloudy windless conditions.

100% extra wind turbines don't matter if there is no wind, the same applies to solar. And yes there may be wind and good sunlight somewhere, but will that be enough to power the grid? How many times peak usage do you have to have for the system to be reliable?

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thegreatdivide

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Re: 17 feet of snow in California
Reply #182 - May 4^th, 2022 at 12:49pm

lee wrote on May 4^th, 2022 at 12:04pm:

And when will this excess energy come to pass? I see SA had renewable only for one hour on a Sunday. That does not inspire confidence.

Offshore wind and desert solar around/across the entire continent, and inter-connectors.

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You need at least 5 days reserves to account for cloudy windless conditions.

The wind is always blowing 24/7 somewhere around Oz, and desert solar somewhere 12 hours every day.

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100% extra wind turbines don't matter if there is no wind, the same applies to solar. And yes there may be wind and good sunlight somewhere, but will that be enough to power the grid? How many times peak usage do you have to have for the system to be reliable?

Good questions. Let's get on with the transition ASAP, to find the answers to those questions, so we can turn off the last gas-fired generator.

Or maybe a few gas-fired generators can be maintained on standby, while we are deploying sufficient renewables to run the economy in most climate (wind/sunshine) conditions.

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lee

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Re: 17 feet of snow in California
Reply #183 - May 4^th, 2022 at 2:15pm

thegreatdivide wrote on May 4^th, 2022 at 12:49pm:

The wind is always blowing 24/7 somewhere around Oz, and desert solar somewhere 12 hours every day.

You have never heard of a duck curve have you? Grin

thegreatdivide wrote on May 4^th, 2022 at 12:49pm:

Good questions. Let's get on with the transition ASAP, to find the answers to those questions, so we can turn off the last gas-fired generator.

It would be better to answer the questions BEFORE spending all that money.

thegreatdivide wrote on May 4^th, 2022 at 12:49pm:

Or maybe a few gas-fired generators can be maintained on standby, while we are deploying sufficient renewables to run the economy in most climate (wind/sunshine) conditions.

So now renewables are not enough. Grin

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Jake Winker Frogen Gold Member Offline Australian Politics Posts: 1503 Perth WA Gender:	Re: 17 feet of snow in California Reply #184 - May 4^th, 2022 at 2:20pm The globe is entering Donner Party times. Prepare. Sharpen your knives. And hone your hearts.
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thegreatdivide

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Re: 17 feet of snow in California
Reply #185 - May 4^th, 2022 at 3:19pm

lee wrote on May 4^th, 2022 at 2:15pm:

You have never heard of a duck curve have you? Grin

That's what storage is for.

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It would be better to answer the questions BEFORE spending all that money.

Why? Money is created out of nothing. Have you got a better use for the resources, given if we deploy those resources correctly we can run the global economy on free electricity?

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So now renewables are not enough. Grin

Ensuring the last 10% of energy requirements is achieved most efficiently (in terms of resource deployment), is what we have to find out, by empirical discovery, during the transition to green.

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thegreatdivide Gold Member Offline Australian Politics<br /> Posts: 15650 Gender:	Re: 17 feet of snow in California Reply #186 - May 4^th, 2022 at 3:26pm Jake Winker Frogen wrote on May 4^th, 2022 at 2:20pm: The globe is entering Donner Party times. Prepare. Sharpen your knives. And hone your hearts. More correctly, the world is entering the time when private global capital will be pushed aside by public global capital, out of necessity.
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lee

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Re: 17 feet of snow in California
Reply #187 - May 5^th, 2022 at 12:13pm

thegreatdivide wrote on May 4^th, 2022 at 3:19pm:

Ensuring the last 10% of energy requirements is achieved most efficiently (in terms of resource deployment), is what we have to find out, by empirical discovery, during the transition to green.

Ah the last 10%? from where did you derive these figures?

"Total electricity generation in Australia was estimated to be 267,452 gigawatt hours (GWh) in calendar year 2021, a slight increase from 2020."

https://www.energy.gov.au/publications/australian-energy-statistics-table-o-elec...

So before electrification add-ons like heavy transport and Ev's, 10% would be 26,745GWh. And of course you have never mentioned how much overcapacity is needed normally.

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thegreatdivide

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Re: 17 feet of snow in California
Reply #188 - May 5^th, 2022 at 2:12pm

lee wrote on May 5^th, 2022 at 12:13pm:

thegreatdivide wrote on May 4^th, 2022 at 3:19pm:

Ensuring the last 10% of energy requirements is achieved most efficiently (in terms of resource deployment), is what we have to find out, by empirical discovery, during the transition to green.

Ah the last 10%? from where did you derive these figures?

Merely an estimate. Can the world's deserts - interconnected - power the global grid, in all climate conditions? Add on sufficient offshore wind...how many days or hours would demand still not be secure?

Hey - probably so few, we could shut industry and pronounce a public holiday, on those days....

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"Total electricity generation in Australia was estimated to be 267,452 gigawatt hours (GWh) in calendar year 2021, a slight increase from 2020."

https://www.energy.gov.au/publications/australian-energy-statistics-table-o-elec...

So before electrification add-ons like heavy transport and Ev's, 10% would be 26,745GWh. And of course you have never mentioned how much overcapacity is needed normally.

That's the '10%' guesstimate I mentioned, probably more like 1%.

At 1%, might be worth having some gas-fired plants on standby, to reduce the amount of normally required overcapacity.

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lee

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Re: 17 feet of snow in California
Reply #189 - May 5^th, 2022 at 3:23pm

thegreatdivide wrote on May 5^th, 2022 at 2:12pm:

Merely an estimate.

A SWAG.*

thegreatdivide wrote on May 5^th, 2022 at 2:12pm:

That's the '10%' guesstimate I mentioned, probably more like 1%.

Another SWAG* Grin

SWAG - Seriously Wild Arsed Guess.

Edit: During these "holidays", which can't be factored in ahead of time, what keeps the steel from solidifying etc. Roll Eyes

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thegreatdivide

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Re: 17 feet of snow in California
Reply #190 - May 7^th, 2022 at 12:43pm

lee wrote on May 5^th, 2022 at 3:23pm:

A SWAG.*

Another SWAG* Grin

SWAG - Seriously Wild Arsed Guess.

No, rather an exercise in empiricism, to find the best use of resources.

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Edit: During these "holidays", which can't be factored in ahead of time, what keeps the steel from solidifying etc. Roll Eyes

No doubt some industry will be deemed essential, just like when we - except for essential workers - were all forced to take 'holidays' at the beginning of the covid pandemic, when its degree of deadliness was still unknown.

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lee

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Re: 17 feet of snow in California
Reply #191 - May 7^th, 2022 at 1:25pm

thegreatdivide wrote on May 7^th, 2022 at 12:43pm:

No, rather an exercise in empiricism, to find the best use of resources.

And yet you have already told us that renewables only are the solution. Grin

thegreatdivide wrote on May 7^th, 2022 at 12:43pm:

No doubt some industry will be deemed essential, just like when we - except for essential workers - were all forced to take 'holidays' at the beginning of the covid pandemic, when its degree of deadliness was still unknown.

Yes with forewarning. Getting a call at 7o'clock as you are about to walk out the door is not forewarning. Roll Eyes

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thegreatdivide

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Re: 17 feet of snow in California
Reply #192 - May 7^th, 2022 at 1:41pm

lee wrote on May 7^th, 2022 at 1:25pm:

thegreatdivide wrote on May 7^th, 2022 at 12:43pm:

No, rather an exercise in empiricism, to find the best use of resources.

And yet you have already told us that renewables only are the solution. Grin

No I told you we must transition to maximum renewables ASAP, to eradicate energy poverty based on high fossil fuel prices mandated in profit-seeking private markets.

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Yes with forewarning. Getting a call at 7o'clock as you are about to walk out the door is not forewarning. Roll Eyes

Er...ok, so you might be told at midday, you are free to to go home early....

But we are talking extremely rare events, and you are reduced to scraping the bottom of your sorry pro fossil barrel.

Let's see if your ideology survives the March 21st election....

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lee

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Re: 17 feet of snow in California
Reply #193 - May 7^th, 2022 at 4:55pm

thegreatdivide wrote on May 7^th, 2022 at 1:41pm:

No I told you we must transition to maximum renewables ASAP, to eradicate energy poverty based on high fossil fuel prices mandated in profit-seeking private markets.

Nope. You said we have plenty of land plenty of wind. The wind will alweays blow somewhere and the sun will provide sunshine 12 hours/day. Nothing about backup except batteries and hydro.

"Like I said, so what, when we can utilize a small percentage of otherwise useless desert and run the economy on free electricity. "

Re: The COP26 Failure And More Blah, Blah, Blah
Reply #21 - Nov 10th, 2021 at 9:01am

thegreatdivide wrote on May 7^th, 2022 at 1:41pm:

Er...ok, so you might be told at midday, you are free to to go home early....

Or get there and be told no work today AT ALL.

thegreatdivide wrote on May 7^th, 2022 at 1:41pm:

But we are talking extremely rare events, and you are reduced to scraping the bottom of your sorry pro fossil barrel.

You don't know if it is rare or not. Roll Eyes

thegreatdivide wrote on May 7^th, 2022 at 1:41pm:

Let's see if your ideology survives the March 21st election....

Elections have no bearing on AGW/CC. Roll Eyes

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thegreatdivide

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Re: 17 feet of snow in California
Reply #194 - May 7^th, 2022 at 5:50pm

lee wrote on May 7^th, 2022 at 4:55pm:

thegreatdivide wrote on May 7^th, 2022 at 1:41pm:

No I told you we must transition to maximum renewables ASAP, to eradicate energy poverty based on high fossil fuel prices mandated in profit-seeking private markets.

Nope. You said we have plenty of land plenty of wind. The wind will alweays blow somewhere and the sun will provide sunshine 12 hours/day. Nothing about backup except batteries and hydro.

Did I forget to mention backup? Silly me (cough, cough....)

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"Like I said, so what, when we can utilize a small percentage of otherwise useless desert and run the economy on free electricity. "

Re: The COP26 Failure And More Blah, Blah, Blah
Reply #21 - Nov 10th, 2021 at 9:01am

Gosh I forgot to mention (cough, cough) Snowy 2.0 and other large schemes would be connected with that desert solar.

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Or get there and be told no work today AT ALL.

Problem? Can't cope with a change to routine? Hope you are not one of the business owners in the Lismore flood plains....

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You don't know if it is rare or not. Roll Eyes

When we are running the economy on 90% renewables + storage, we will soon gain good experience of how rare the failure of storage is, and whether we can dismantle the last of the gas burners.

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Elections have no bearing on AGW/CC. Roll Eyes

But they certainly have bearing on how fast the transition to a green economy occurs...

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