lee wrote on Nov 28
th, 2021 at 3:20pm:
ONLY if the IPCC is correct. Computer models don't tell anything. There are too many parameters. They don't do clouds well, a new paper on aerosols, if true, shows that the modellers have that wrong as well.
But you are such an agnostic you defer to them.
AKA as "Appeal to Authority".
No, I am the agnostic, I defer to no-one on AGW; I have been at pains to make that clear. But if they are correct....
Quote:I have decided it is flawed based on my own research. Computer models all the way down.
OK.
Quote: You have unicorns in your garden.
And that comment shows you can't or won't debate the issue of clean atmosphere and the 'cost' of achieving it.
Quote: Runaway AGW is not real. It is based on the unreal RCP (nowSSP)8.5. Even the IPCC says that is highly unlikely.
"SSP5-8.5 very high GHG emissions (highly unlikely):
CO2 emissions triple by 2075 "
hooookaaaay.....so just as I thought, very tricky to tie down...
Quote:Ah yes Free as in the government pays for it.
Actually, free.... as in the required government-managed mobilization of available resources; money is immaterial for a
currency-issuer. Quote:BTW - You mentioned earlier about rooftop solar. You didn't respond as to whether the government would install/replace them for free also.
I must have missed that. Here is one of many proposals:
"[i]The South Australian Government is fulfilling its promise to provide more affordable, reliable and secure energy by launching a solar battery subsidy scheme which is offering $100 million in State Government subsidies for up to 40,000 South Australian households to install battery storage in their homes."
Another scheme involves a private company installing solar plus battery, paid for by the company up front, and paid off by the householder (don't know the details)
Replacement via means testing, perhaps? (eg low income households' systems replaced for free).
But not everyone has suitable location available for solar (trees, shade from buildings etc).
Personally I prefer nationalization of the grid, and free electricity up to a reasonable (metered) limit.
Quote:And yet you have provided no reference for these "global wierdings". I even quoted excerpts from IPCC AR6 chapter11 to you.
I know the IPCC is indicating the need to act, to avoid climate (AGW-based?) catastrophes of the sort we have seen in the last decade. The UN is very concerned; Guterres turned up at Glasgow.
Quote:"Floods - In summary there is low confidence in the human influence on the changes in high river flows on the global scale. Confidence is in general low in attributing changes in the probability or magnitude of flood events to human influence because of a limited number of studies and differences in the results of these studies, and large modelling uncertainties.
IPCC AR6 WG1 11.5.4
Flooding of course isn't only related to high river flows; local heavy rainfall - as seen in Germany and China this year - is also a factor
Quote:Droughts - There is medium confidence in the ability of ESMs to simulate trends and anomalies in precipitation deficits and AED, and also medium confidence in the ability of ESMs and hydrological models to simulate trends and anomalies in soil moisture and streamflow deficits, on global and regional scales
IPCC AR6 WG1 11.6.3.6"
"Medium confidence"? Does that mean we can take a chance and do nothing?
Quote:You did mention German Floods and I responded with earlier dates to show it has happened before. And also China - read up on the Great China Flood 1931.
You can't be bothered to look because you want to say stuff without correction.
I'm more than willing to be corrected, especially on issues that concern me. As for AGW, I'll let you fight it out with the IPCC.
Quote:You are conflating things. The National Determined Contributions could lead to a temperature risee of 2.7C BY 2100
And the "catastrophic" part wasn't in the IPCC report. That was the UN chief.
OK; but 2.7C by 2100 would be catastrophic, right?
Quote:So they don't all agree. Thanks for that. Much like orthodox economists.
Did you miss "layman" as opposed to "professor"?
I see some argument over the JG on social media, among people who are not professors of MMT.
Quote:It puts the 1.5C to 2.7C in a new light.
Not when we have the possibility to run the global economy on free sun and wind.
Quote:How many years and how many economies to find this alleged sweet spot?
Starting with the implementation of the above-poverty Job Guarantee, the sweet spot can be achieved more or less immediately, because
public funding ceases to be the problem; coordination of public and private sector choices re
resource mobilization becomes the problem...all the while, poverty has been eradicated overnight (in rich countries like Oz, at least).
Quote:Cheap reliable electricity is the biggest factor. Not renewables.
Question: when will renewables plus storage be cheaper than NEW coal?
https://www.abc.net.au/news/2019-09-12/is-renewable-power-cheaper-than-coal-nuclear-malcolm-turnbull/11495558
"Malcolm Turnbull says renewables plus storage are cheaper than coal and nuclear for new power generation. Is he correct?". ABC fact-check verdict: "Fair Call"