Australian Politics Forum - Lessons in AGW

Jovial Monk

Gold Member

Offline

Dogs not cats!

Posts: 43607
Gender: male

Lessons in AGW
Apr 5^th, 2021 at 7:54am

From: https://history.aip.org/

Quote:

The Carbon Dioxide Greenhouse Effect

In the 19th century, scientists realized that gases in the atmosphere cause a "greenhouse effect" which affects the planet's temperature. These scientists were interested chiefly in the possibility that a lower level of carbon dioxide gas might explain the ice ages of the distant past. At the turn of the century, Svante Arrhenius calculated that emissions from human industry might someday bring a global warming. Other scientists dismissed his idea as faulty. In 1938, G.S. Callendar argued that the level of carbon dioxide was climbing and raising global temperature, but most scientists found his arguments implausible. It was almost by chance that a few researchers in the 1950s discovered that global warming truly was possible. In the early 1960s, C.D. Keeling measured the level of carbon dioxide in the atmosphere: it was rising fast. Researchers began to take an interest, struggling to understand how the level of carbon dioxide had changed in the past, and how the level was influenced by chemical and biological forces. They found that the gas plays a crucial role in climate change, so that the rising level could gravely affect our future.

We will go through this chapter bit by bit, then the next etc.

Back to top

Get the vaxx! 💉💉

If you don’t like abortions ignore them like you do school shootings.

IP Logged

Jovial Monk

Gold Member

Offline

Dogs not cats!

Posts: 43607
Gender: male

Re: Lessons in AGW
Reply #1 - Apr 5^th, 2021 at 7:58am

The work by the nineteenth and early twentieth centuries scientists was to explain Ice Ages (and whether there were ice ages:)

Quote:

Like many Victorian natural philosophers, John Tyndall was fascinated by a great variety of questions. While he was preparing an important treatise on "Heat as a Mode of Motion" he took time to consider geology. Tyndall had hands-on knowledge of the subject, for he was an ardent Alpinist (in 1861 he made the first ascent of the Weisshorn). Familiar with glaciers, he had been convinced by the evidence — hotly debated among scientists of his day — that tens of thousands of years ago, colossal layers of ice had covered all of northern Europe. How could climate possibly change so radically?

(It was the work of a Serbian astronomer that explained how ice ages formed.

Quote:

Milutin Milanković (Serbian Cyrillic: Милутин Миланковић [milǔtin milǎːnkɔʋitɕ], sometimes anglicised as Milankovitch; 28 May 1879 – 12 December 1958) was a Serbian mathematician, astronomer, climatologist, geophysicist, civil engineer and popularizer of science.

Milanković gave two fundamental contributions to global science. The first contribution is the "Canon of the Earth’s Insolation", which characterizes the climates of all the planets of the Solar system. The second contribution is the explanation of Earth's long-term climate changes caused by changes in the position of the Earth in comparison to the Sun, now known as Milankovitch cycles. This explained the ice ages occurring in the geological past of the Earth, as well as the climate changes on the Earth which can be expected in the future.

)

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Milutin_Milankovi%C4%87

Back to top

Get the vaxx! 💉💉

If you don’t like abortions ignore them like you do school shootings.

IP Logged

Jovial Monk

Gold Member

Offline

Dogs not cats!

Posts: 43607
Gender: male

Re: Lessons in AGW
Reply #2 - Apr 5^th, 2021 at 8:05am

Quote:

One possible answer was a change in the composition of the Earth's atmosphere. Beginning with work by Joseph Fourier in the 1820s, scientists had understood that gases in the atmosphere might trap the heat received from the Sun. As Fourier put it, energy in the form of visible light from the Sun easily penetrates the atmosphere to reach the surface and heat it up, but heat cannot so easily escape back into space. For the air absorbs invisible heat rays (“infrared radiation”) rising from the surface. The warmed air radiates some of the energy back down to the surface, helping it stay warm. This was the effect that would later be called, by an inaccurate analogy, the "greenhouse effect." The equations and data available to 19th-century scientists were far too poor to allow an accurate calculation. Yet the physics was straightforward enough to show that a bare, airless rock at the Earth's distance from the Sun should be far colder than the Earth actually is.

There is a (misnamed) Greenhouse Effect and because of that life is possible on Earth. This is known and inarguable—just look how cold the Moon is when the sun isn’t shining on it.

Back to top

Get the vaxx! 💉💉

If you don’t like abortions ignore them like you do school shootings.

IP Logged

BigP

Gold Member

Offline

Australian Politics

Posts: 1924
West Auckland
Gender: male

Re: Lessons in AGW
Reply #3 - Apr 5^th, 2021 at 10:38am

I believe that science will save us from the green house effect, But what it wont fix is the deforestation of virgin Amazonian rainforest because of mining and the need for more agricultural land, You can produce meat like products from plants but If people don't want to eat it , they will continue to clear more land to graze beef , These forests are the earths lungs they also put a lot of water into the atmosphere that creates precipitation that benefits areas well outside its boundaries

Back to top

IP Logged

Jovial Monk

Gold Member

Offline

Dogs not cats!

Posts: 43607
Gender: male

Re: Lessons in AGW
Reply #4 - Apr 5^th, 2021 at 10:56am

We are deforesting madly here too (Aust, not casting aspersions at NZ.)

Science can only fix it by improving carbon emission free energy and transportation which will reduce emissions but not remove CO2 from the atmosphere.

Reafforestation is the only way. This includes cleaning up the ocean so marine plants can prosper again (and critters with it.)

YOU can do something: pressure your local council to plant more trees and plant some trees yourself. Even on a small block, if you have a fence that gets sun most of the day then with a few posts and 1, 2 or 3 wires you can grow grapes, apples, pears or quinces along that fence. Have a spot with nothing much in it? Dig a hole and plant 4 trees in it, 4 peach trees chosen to give a nice long harvest period. 45cm spacing*, prune the trees so the middle is empty allowing air and sun to reach the trees. Root competition keeps the trees small so not much space is taken up but the four trees give enough fruit to make it worthwhile. Or cherries where they grow, etc.

Apricot trees grow like topsy and cutting it back just increases the rate of growth. Need a BIG spot and a chainsaw to grow an apricot tree! Apple and pear trees can grow huge too, hence my suggestion to espalier them against a fence.

Supermarkets sell bland apples, golden (cotton wool) “Delicious” and gala, fuji etc. Pfffft!

King David, an offspring of Jonathon and Winesap, spicy-tart! Be great juice!

Mcintosh, the most popular apple in the US.

Cornish Aromatic with real flavor and crunch.

Cox Orange Pippin, texture, flavor, aroma in the best eating apple!

Etc Etc. Have a look here:
https://www.heritagefruittrees.com.au/

and here:
https://www.woodbridgefruittrees.com.au/

There is a great resource for info on fruit, an English company operating in England and the US.
www.orangepippin.co.uk
www.orangepippin.com

Not all fruits on the orange pippin list is avaible here, mind, but any apple or cherry variety you come across here will be listed.

The so-called fresh food people don’t stock Janathan. Why not? It does not store well! Grow it yourself and do the planet a favor at the same time.

* I will confirm the spacing of the four-trees-in-one-hole.

Back to top

Get the vaxx! 💉💉

If you don’t like abortions ignore them like you do school shootings.

IP Logged

BigP

Gold Member

Offline

Australian Politics

Posts: 1924
West Auckland
Gender: male

Re: Lessons in AGW
Reply #5 - Apr 5^th, 2021 at 11:15am

Jovial Monk wrote on Apr 5^th, 2021 at 10:56am:

We are deforesting madly here too (Aust, not casting aspersions at NZ.)

Science can only fix it by improving carbon emission free energy and transportation which will reduce emissions but not remove CO2 from the atmosphere.

Reafforestation is the only way. This includes cleaning up the ocean so marine plants can prosper again (and critters with it.)

YOU can do something: pressure your local council to plant more trees and plant some trees yourself. Even on a small block, if you have a fence that gets sun most of the day then with a few posts and 1, 2 or 3 wires you can grow grapes, apples, pears or quinces along that fence. Have a spot with nothing much in it? Dig a hole and plant 4 trees in it, 4 peach trees chosen to give a nice long harvest period. 45cm spacing*, prune the trees so the middle is empty allowing air and sun to reach the trees. Root competition keeps the trees small so not much space is taken up but the four trees give enough fruit to make it worthwhile. Or cherries where they grow, etc.

Apricot trees grow like topsy and cutting it back just increases the rate of growth. Need a BIG spot and a chainsaw to grow an apricot tree! Apple and pear trees can grow huge too, hence my suggestion to espalier them against a fence.

Supermarkets sell bland apples, golden (cotton wool) “Delicious” and gala, fuji etc. Pfffft!

King David, an offspring of Jonathon and Winesap, spicy-tart! Be great juice!

Mcintosh, the most popular apple in the US.

Cornish Aromatic with real flavor and crunch.

Cox Orange Pippin, texture, flavor, aroma in the best eating apple!

Etc Etc. Have a look here:
https://www.heritagefruittrees.com.au/

and here:
https://www.woodbridgefruittrees.com.au/

There is a great resource for info on fruit, an English company operating in England and the US.
www.orangepippin.co.uk
www.orangepippin.com

Not all fruits on the orange pippin list is avaible here, mind, but any apple or cherry variety you come across here will be listed.

The so-called fresh food people don’t stock Janathan. Why not? It does not store well! Grow it yourself and do the planet a favor at the same time.

* I will confirm the spacing of the four-trees-in-one-hole.

Being a small country governed by a single entity, " no federal regimes " Most of our native forests are protected, Selective sustainable logging is allowed in certain areas for high value trees , and if you purchase a property you are allowed to clear enough for your home and a area around it ,

Back to top

IP Logged

BigP

Gold Member

Offline

Australian Politics

Posts: 1924
West Auckland
Gender: male

Re: Lessons in AGW
Reply #6 - Apr 5^th, 2021 at 11:20am

Jovial Monk wrote on Apr 5^th, 2021 at 10:56am:

We are deforesting madly here too (Aust, not casting aspersions at NZ.)

Science can only fix it by improving carbon emission free energy and transportation which will reduce emissions but not remove CO2 from the atmosphere.

Reafforestation is the only way. This includes cleaning up the ocean so marine plants can prosper again (and critters with it.)

YOU can do something: pressure your local council to plant more trees and plant some trees yourself. Even on a small block, if you have a fence that gets sun most of the day then with a few posts and 1, 2 or 3 wires you can grow grapes, apples, pears or quinces along that fence. Have a spot with nothing much in it? Dig a hole and plant 4 trees in it, 4 peach trees chosen to give a nice long harvest period. 45cm spacing*, prune the trees so the middle is empty allowing air and sun to reach the trees. Root competition keeps the trees small so not much space is taken up but the four trees give enough fruit to make it worthwhile. Or cherries where they grow, etc.

Apricot trees grow like topsy and cutting it back just increases the rate of growth. Need a BIG spot and a chainsaw to grow an apricot tree! Apple and pear trees can grow huge too, hence my suggestion to espalier them against a fence.

Supermarkets sell bland apples, golden (cotton wool) “Delicious” and gala, fuji etc. Pfffft!

King David, an offspring of Jonathon and Winesap, spicy-tart! Be great juice!

Mcintosh, the most popular apple in the US.

Cornish Aromatic with real flavor and crunch.

Cox Orange Pippin, texture, flavor, aroma in the best eating apple!

Etc Etc. Have a look here:
https://www.heritagefruittrees.com.au/

and here:
https://www.woodbridgefruittrees.com.au/

There is a great resource for info on fruit, an English company operating in England and the US.
www.orangepippin.co.uk
www.orangepippin.com

Not all fruits on the orange pippin list is avaible here, mind, but any apple or cherry variety you come across here will be listed.

The so-called fresh food people don’t stock Janathan. Why not? It does not store well! Grow it yourself and do the planet a favor at the same time.

* I will confirm the spacing of the four-trees-in-one-hole.

""Apple and pear trees can grow huge too, hence my suggestion to espalier them against a fence.""

Im on 14 acres close to Auckland city If i get onto my roof I can see the city center, I have a orchard with some pears in it and without pruning they become very large trees

Back to top

IP Logged

Jovial Monk Gold Member Offline Dogs not cats! Posts: 43607 Gender:	Re: Lessons in AGW Reply #7 - Apr 5^th, 2021 at 11:51am 14 acres, nice! I want 1400m2, 14 acres a bit too much for me!
Back to top	Get the vaxx! 💉💉 If you don’t like abortions ignore them like you do school shootings. IP Logged

lee Gold Member Offline Australian Politics Posts: 16400 Gender:	Re: Lessons in AGW Reply #8 - Apr 5^th, 2021 at 1:08pm Jovial Monk wrote on Apr 5^th, 2021 at 10:56am: We are deforesting madly here too (Aust, not casting aspersions at NZ.) So how many millions of hectares of forest are we down to? 125? 140?
Back to top	IP Logged

Jovial Monk

Gold Member

Offline

Dogs not cats!

Posts: 43607
Gender: male

Re: Lessons in AGW
Reply #9 - Apr 5^th, 2021 at 1:17pm

Quote:

Tyndall set out to find whether there was in fact any gas in the atmosphere that could trap heat rays. In 1859, his careful laboratory work identified several gases that did just that. The most important was simple water vapor (H2O). Also effective were carbon dioxide (CO2), although in the atmosphere the gas is only a few parts in ten thousand, and the even rarer methane (CH4). Just as a sheet of paper will block more light than an entire pool of clear water, so a trace of CO2 or CH4 could strongly affect the transmission of heat radiation through the atmospheree.

Next—some simple models of the atmosphere.

Back to top

Get the vaxx! 💉💉

If you don’t like abortions ignore them like you do school shootings.

IP Logged

Jovial Monk

Gold Member

Offline

Dogs not cats!

Posts: 43607
Gender: male

Re: Lessons in AGW
Reply #10 - Apr 5^th, 2021 at 1:19pm

https://history.aip.org/climate/simple.htm#L_0141

Quote:

What determines the climate? Explanations proliferated — models for climate built out of little more than basic physics, a few equations aided by hand-waving. All began with a traditional picture of a stable system, self-regulated by natural feedbacks. A few nineteenth-century scientists suggested that a change in the level of carbon dioxide gas might cause an ice age or global warming, but most scientists thought the gas could not possibly have such effects. Yet climate did change, as proven by past ice ages. Some pointed out that feedbacks did not necessarily bring stability: in particular, changes in snow cover might amplify rather than dampen a climate shift.

Back to top

Get the vaxx! 💉💉

If you don’t like abortions ignore them like you do school shootings.

IP Logged

Jovial Monk

Gold Member

Offline

Dogs not cats!

Posts: 43607
Gender: male

Re: Lessons in AGW
Reply #11 - Apr 5^th, 2021 at 1:27pm

Quote:

"Meteorology is a branch of physics," a weather expert remarked in 1939, "and physics makes use of two powerful tools: experiment and mathematics. The first of these tools is denied to the meteorologist and the second does not prove of much use to him in climatological problems." So many interrelated factors affected climate, he explained, that you couldn't write it all down mathematically without making so many simplifying assumptions that the result would never match reality. It wasn't even possible to calculate from first principles the average temperature of a place, let alone how the temperature might change in future years. And "without numerical values our deductions are only opinions."

That didn't stop people from putting forth explanations of climate change. A scientist would come up with an idea about how certain factors worked and explain it all in a page or two, helped along by some waving of hands. Some scientists went on to build a few equations and calculate a few numbers. At best they could show only that the factors they invoked could have effects of roughly the right magnitude. There was no way to prove that some other explanation, perhaps not yet thought of, would not work better. These mostly qualitative "theories" (in fact, merely plausible stories) were all anyone had to offer until digital computers came into their own, late in the 20th century. Until then, the climate community had good reason to keep theory at arms' length. Even those who tried to think in general physical terms hesitated to call themselves "theorists," an almost pejorative term in meteorology.

Back to top

Get the vaxx! 💉💉

If you don’t like abortions ignore them like you do school shootings.

IP Logged

lee

Gold Member

Offline

Australian Politics

Posts: 16400
Gender: male

Re: Lessons in AGW
Reply #12 - Apr 5^th, 2021 at 1:39pm

Jovial Monk wrote on Apr 5^th, 2021 at 1:27pm:

There was no way to prove that some other explanation, perhaps not yet thought of, would not work better. These mostly qualitative "theories" (in fact, merely plausible stories) were all anyone had to offer until digital computers came into their own, late in the 20th century.

And yet they still parameterise the models. Grin

Back to top

IP Logged

Jovial Monk Gold Member Offline Dogs not cats! Posts: 43607 Gender:	Re: Lessons in AGW Reply #13 - Apr 5^th, 2021 at 1:53pm Yes, the Zeller/Nikolov model used SIX parameters
Back to top	Get the vaxx! 💉💉 If you don’t like abortions ignore them like you do school shootings. IP Logged

Jovial Monk

Gold Member

Offline

Dogs not cats!

Posts: 43607
Gender: male

Re: Lessons in AGW
Reply #14 - Apr 5^th, 2021 at 1:53pm

Quote:

The science did have a foundation, at least potentially, in simple ideas based on undeniable physical principles. The structures that scientists tried to build on these principles were often called "models" rather than "theories." Sometimes that was just an attempt to hide uncertainty (a paleontologist complained that "'model'... is just a word for people who cannot spell 'hypothesis'").(3) But calling a structure of ideas a "model" did emphasize the scientist's desire to deal with a simplified system that one could almost physically construct on a workbench — something that embodied a hands-on feeling for processes.

So we will have a look at an actual model soon.

Back to top

Get the vaxx! 💉💉

If you don’t like abortions ignore them like you do school shootings.

IP Logged