Australian Politics Forum - Climate change predictions 17 years ago

freediver

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Re: Climate change predictions 17 years ago
Reply #45 - Mar 21^st, 2021 at 8:46am

lee wrote on Mar 20^th, 2021 at 2:52pm:

freediver wrote on Mar 20^th, 2021 at 1:23pm:

Does more snow mean it was colder or warmer Bobby?

I would love to see the peer-reviewed paper that says it snows when it is warmer. Wink

It's actually common knowledge in cold places. Ignorant people, typically from warmer climates, tend to associate snow with cold weather, meaning weather that is colder than where they live, then simplify this association to assume that the colder it is, the more snow falls. Then they hear of an increase in snow fall in a particularly cold place, and ignorantly equate this with colder weather.

I'll give you a simple tip, if you want to now the temperature, look at the temperature, not the snowfall.

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Ajax

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Re: Climate change predictions 17 years ago
Reply #46 - Mar 21^st, 2021 at 9:48am

freediver wrote on Mar 21^st, 2021 at 8:46am:

lee wrote on Mar 20^th, 2021 at 2:52pm:

freediver wrote on Mar 20^th, 2021 at 1:23pm:

Does more snow mean it was colder or warmer Bobby?

I would love to see the peer-reviewed paper that says it snows when it is warmer. Wink

It's actually common knowledge in cold places. Ignorant people, typically from warmer climates, tend to associate snow with cold weather, meaning weather that is colder than where they live, then simplify this association to assume that the colder it is, the more snow falls. Then they hear of an increase in snow fall in a particularly cold place, and ignorantly equate this with colder weather.

I'll give you a simple tip, if you want to know the temperature, look at the temperature, not the snowfall.

Monologuing again FD, you should stop and read what you're thinking and writing now and again.

Nothing short of dribble....LOL

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1. There has never been a more serious assault on our standard of living than Anthropogenic Global Warming..Ajax
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freediver Gold Member Offline www.ozpolitic.com Posts: 49836 At my desk.	Re: Climate change predictions 17 years ago Reply #47 - Mar 21^st, 2021 at 12:05pm Is there anything in there you disagree with Ajax?
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lee Gold Member Offline Australian Politics Posts: 18245 Gender:	Re: Climate change predictions 17 years ago Reply #48 - Mar 21^st, 2021 at 12:09pm Just how much warmer than say 10C? Seeing as it falls from height where it is cooler. Does AGW affect the temperature at which it snows?
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Baronvonrort Gold Member Offline Australian Politics Posts: 19105 Gender:	Re: Climate change predictions 17 years ago Reply #49 - Mar 15^th, 2022 at 9:22pm
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UnSubRocky Gold Member Offline Crocodile Hunter: Origins Posts: 25039 Rockhampton Gender:	Re: Climate change predictions 17 years ago Reply #50 - Mar 16^th, 2022 at 1:02am Have they got the figures for 2020-2021, yet? I wanna see how much colder things got in that time period when much of the cars were off the road.
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UnSubRocky

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Re: Climate change predictions 17 years ago
Reply #51 - Mar 16^th, 2022 at 1:04am

lee wrote on Mar 21^st, 2021 at 12:09pm:

Just how much warmer than say 10C? Seeing as it falls from height where it is cooler. Wink

Does AGW affect the temperature at which it snows?

Hot and humid here in Qld. In the meantime, bitterly cold throughout February in the USA. Normally, hot conditions on one side of the planet would mean cold conditions on the polar opposite of the planet.

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At this stage...

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Dnarever

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Re: Climate change predictions 17 years ago
Reply #52 - Mar 16^th, 2022 at 8:51am

Quote:

Climate change predictions 17 years ago

Quote:

The document predicts that abrupt climate change could

This was the worst case scenario, They needed a plan in case it happened but the probability of worst case is always low.

This outcome was dependant on abrupt climate change which was always a possibility but not very likely. Many here are taking this completely out of context.

Have you noticed that we now have a 1,000 year flood every 5 years and a 100 year flood or fire every other season ?

I have never in my life seen the sort of rain we have had in the last 2 months, its a completely new one. Maybe one of those 100 year events ?

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« Last Edit: Mar 16^th, 2022 at 8:56am by Dnarever »

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lee

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Re: Climate change predictions 17 years ago
Reply #53 - Mar 16^th, 2022 at 3:26pm

Dnarever wrote on Mar 16^th, 2022 at 8:51am:

Have you noticed that we now have a 1,000 year flood every 5 years and a 100 year flood or fire every other season ?

No which area. Surely not Brisbane.

http://www.bom.gov.au/qld/flood/fld_history/brisbane_history.shtml

Notice there were more floods in the 1800's. This flood (2022) reached 3.8M less than the 1974 5.5m flood and less than the 2011 4.5m flood. 1893 remains the top. So using floods as a metric they are declining with increasing CO2.

Brisbane rainfall 1893 February 1025mm
1974 January 871.8mm
2022 February 887mm

Using rainfall 1893 is still tops. 16 mm difference between 1974 and 2022. And there was a station change.

Dnarever wrote on Mar 16^th, 2022 at 8:51am:

Have you noticed that we now have a 1,000 year flood every 5 years and a 100 year flood or fire every other season ?

So you don't know anything about statistics. Who knew? One in 1,000 means it has one chance in 1,000 each year. The next year it stays at one in 1,000.

19 floods in 72 years and 16 floods in 112 year up to 2017, Wink

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UnSubRocky

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Re: Climate change predictions 17 years ago
Reply #54 - Mar 16^th, 2022 at 4:59pm

It is now getting on to 14 years since our out of control fires on the mountain range here. I dare say that we have control of our fires. Our flood mitigation is about as good as it can get. These one-in-one-hundred year events are just getting reported upon more often because of the greater access of the media.

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At this stage...

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Dnarever

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Re: Climate change predictions 17 years ago
Reply #55 - Mar 16^th, 2022 at 11:23pm

lee wrote on Mar 16^th, 2022 at 3:26pm:

Dnarever wrote on Mar 16^th, 2022 at 8:51am:

Have you noticed that we now have a 1,000 year flood every 5 years and a 100 year flood or fire every other season ?

No which area. Surely not Brisbane.

http://www.bom.gov.au/qld/flood/fld_history/brisbane_history.shtml

Notice there were more floods in the 1800's. This flood (2022) reached 3.8M less than the 1974 5.5m flood and less than the 2011 4.5m flood. 1893 remains the top. So using floods as a metric they are declining with increasing CO2.

Brisbane rainfall 1893 February 1025mm
1974 January 871.8mm
2022 February 887mm

Using rainfall 1893 is still tops. 16 mm difference between 1974 and 2022. And there was a station change.

Dnarever wrote on Mar 16^th, 2022 at 8:51am:

Have you noticed that we now have a 1,000 year flood every 5 years and a 100 year flood or fire every other season ?

So you don't know anything about statistics. Who knew? One in 1,000 means it has one chance in 1,000 each year. The next year it stays at one in 1,000.

19 floods in 72 years and 16 floods in 112 year up to 2017, Wink

Quote:

No which area. Surely not Brisbane.

You make the point against yourself again.

No not Brisbane. You know as unusual as it was but it flooded right down the east coat with record levels in many locations. Places that had never previously flooded found themselves under water.

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lee

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Re: Climate change predictions 17 years ago
Reply #56 - Mar 17^th, 2022 at 11:23am

Dnarever wrote on Mar 16^th, 2022 at 11:23pm:

You know as unusual as it was but it flooded right down the east coat with record levels in many locations. Places that had never previously flooded found themselves under water.

Which places? Lismore?

https://lismore.nsw.gov.au/files/Lismore_Flood_Events_1870-2017.pdf

Or perhaps you have somewhere else in mind but don't want to say.

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lee Gold Member Offline Australian Politics Posts: 18245 Gender:	Re: Climate change predictions 17 years ago Reply #57 - Mar 17^th, 2022 at 2:30pm Or perhaps it was Casion? There were claims it was the first time evah. But - "There were three floods on the Richmond in 1861. Then, in 1863, Casino took the brunt of the flooding, with Lismore again being inundated in 1864. " http://www.richhistory.org.au/lismore-history/district-history/floods/
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Gnads

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Re: Climate change predictions 17 years ago
Reply #58 - Mar 20^th, 2022 at 11:33am

Gordon wrote on Mar 9^th, 2021 at 8:52pm:

I 100% believe in agw and the need to decarbonise the economy, BUT....most of the modelling is total garbage.

I also think the more pressing matter is to stop the plastification of the ocean.

Simple observation ..... the biggest recorded weather/rain event & subsequent flooding on the Australian east coast was in 1893.

No floods have surpassed it in 129 years.

There is more carbon dioxide in the oceans than the terrestrial biosphere.

Quote:

The ocean, with around 38,000 gigatons (Gt) of carbon (1 gigaton = 1 billion tons), contains 16 times as much carbon as the terrestrial biosphere, that is all plant and the underlying soils on our planet, and around 60 times as much as the pre-industrial atmosphere,

https://worldoceanreview.com/en/wor-1/ocean-chemistry/co2-reservoir/#:~:text=The...

What is removed from the atmosphere is replaced by that in the oceans.

AGW isn't the problem.

I would agree that the biggest problem is the amount of plastics entering our oceans, especially from over populated 3rd world countries & China that use their rivers & oceans as refuse tips.

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Gnads

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Re: Climate change predictions 17 years ago
Reply #59 - Mar 20^th, 2022 at 11:39am

Dnarever wrote on Mar 16^th, 2022 at 8:51am:

Quote:

Climate change predictions 17 years ago

Quote:

The document predicts that abrupt climate change could

This was the worst case scenario, They needed a plan in case it happened but the probability of worst case is always low.

This outcome was dependant on abrupt climate change which was always a possibility but not very likely. Many here are taking this completely out of context.

Have you noticed that we now have a 1,000 year flood every 5 years and a 100 year flood or fire every other season ?

I have never in my life seen the sort of rain we have had in the last 2 months, its a completely new one. Maybe one of those 100 year events ?

No such animal as a 1,00 year flood.

Records have only been kept on this continent since the mid to late 1800's.

Dominic Perrotette & the Mayor of Ballina(500 year) are morons for saying such.

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"When you are dead, you do not know you are dead. It's only painful and difficult for others. The same applies when you are stupid." ~ Ricky Gervais

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