"Dr. Mototaka Nakamura is a top-level scientist who worked on cloud dynamics, and on atmospheric and ocean flows for almost 25 years at world class institutions. He has a ScD in meteorology from MIT and has an impressive curriculum in the area of climate science and modelling: Georgia Institute of Technology, NASA (Goddard Space Flight Centre, Jet Propulsion Laboratory), Duke and Hawaii Universities and the Japan Agency for Marine-Earth Science and Technology. He published about 20 climate papers on fluid dynamics"

"Dr. Nakamura says:

… my skepticism on the “global warming hypothesis” is targeted on the “catastrophic” part of the hypothesis and not on the “global warming” per se. That is, there is no doubt that increased carbon dioxide concentration in the atmosphere does have some warming effect on the lower troposphere (about 0. 5 degrees Kelvin for a doubling from the pre-industrial revolution era, according to true experts), although it has not been proven that the warming effect actually results in a rise in the global mean surface temperature, because of the extremely complex processes operating in the real climate system, many of which are represented in perfunctory manner at best or ignored altogether in climate simulation models. I also want to emphasize that I am not denying the possibility of a major climate change as a result of the human activity, either catastrophic global warming or a return of severe glacial period (the real climate system that has myriad of physical and biogeochemical processes is highly nonlinear, much more so than the toys used for climate predictions). I am simply pointing out the fact that it is impossible to predict with any degree of accuracy how the climate of this planet will change in the future.

I want to emphasize here that climate simulation models are fine tools to study the climate system, so long as the users are aware of the limitations of the models and exercise caution in designing experiments and interpreting their output. In this sense, experiments to study the response of simplified climate systems, such as those generated by the “state-of-the-art” climate simulation models, to major increases in atmospheric carbon dioxide or other greenhouse gases are also interesting and meaningful academic projects that are certainly worth pursuing. So long as the results of such projects are presented with disclaimers that unambiguously state the extent to which the results can be compared with the real world, I would not have any problem with such projects. The models just become useless pieces of junk or worse (worse, in a sense that they can produce gravely misleading output) only when they are used for climate forecasting.

Dr. Nakamura focuses on “two serious flaws in climate simulation models used for climate change predictions” that he knows as an expert:

1. A fatally serious flaw in the oceanic component of the models.

2. Grossly oversimplified and problematic representations of the atmospheric water vapor.

Let’s go through the main topics addressed in the book. After finalising this review and summary I realised I had reproduced a lot of the book’s content. This book is so full of information that virtually every period contains relevant explanations or descriptions of the climate or modelling processes. It was dfficult to select some and leave others out.

Global temperature measurement

Only in the past 50 years, with the use of satellite observations has it been possible to measure surface temperatures on a global scale. Until then observations were limited to a very small portion of the earth’s surface. Temperature trends before that time have a narrow coverage, therefore limiting the assessment of global means.

Other simplifications in the models no adressed in this book

There are many other gross simplifications employed in climate prediction models that are likely to be fatal for making any meaningful climate prediction. One of them is, for example, a complete lack of meaningful representation for changes in aerosols that act as cloud condensation nuclei. I do not touch on these biogeochemical topics even in the Japanese version either, since I am not an expert on them.

Besides, the solar energy is treated as a constant by the models (its has changed by 1 to 2 Watts per m2 since a few decades ago since when we had the means to measure it) which limits their ability to predict long term climate.

Serious flaws in climate “forecasting” models

All climate simulation models have many details that become fatal flaws when they are used as climate forecasting tools, especially for mid- to long-term (several years and longer) climate variations and changes. These models completely lack some of critically important climate processes and feedbacks, and represent some other critically important climate processes and feedbacks in grossly distorted manners to the extent that makes these models totally useless for any meaningful climate prediction. I myself used to use climate simulation models for scientific studies, not for predictions, and learned about their problems and limitations in the process. I, with help of some of my former colleagues, even modified some details of these models in attempts to improve them by making some of grossly simplified expressions of physical processes in the models less grossly simplified, based on physical theories. So, I know the internal workings of these models very well. "
cont..

SAo he agrees climate change is taking place. Glad we sorted that

lee wrote on Jul 28^th, 2020 at 12:15pm:




The projection with  the petal is hilarious.

Your mum?

Just figured if you were going to be an idiot, i'd get down to your level.