Australian Politics Forum - Economics of EV's Mean Oil's Days are numbered

Sir lastnail

Gold Member

Offline

Australian Politics

Posts: 30923
Gender: male

Economics of EV's Mean Oil's Days are numbered
Nov 16^th, 2019 at 11:37am

Not good news for the LNP who are used to ripping off the punters for their energy needs !

Quote:

Economics of Electric Vehicles Mean Oil's Days As A Transport Fuel Are Numbered

The future is not looking bright for oil, according to a new report that claims the commodity would have to be priced at $10-$20 a barrel to remain competitive as a transport fuel.

The new research, from BNP Paribas, says that the economics of renewable energy make it impossible for oil to compete at current prices. The author of the report, global head of sustainability Mark Lewis, says that “renewable electricity has a short-run marginal cost of zero, is cleaner environmentally, much easier to transport and could readily replace up to 40% of global oil demand”.

The oil industry faces a disruption on the same scale as that which has hit the European utilities sector over the last decade, he adds.

The report, Wells, Wires, And Wheels… Eroci And The Tough Road Ahead For Oil, introduces the concept of the Energy Return on Capital Invested (EROCI), focusing on the energy return on a $100bn outlay on oil and renewables where the energy is being used to power cars and other light-duty vehicles (LDVs).

“For a given capital outlay on oil and renewables, how much useful energy at the wheel do we get? Our analysis indicates that for the same capital outlay today, new wind and solar-energy projects in tandem with battery electric vehicles will produce six to seven times more useful energy at the wheels than will oil at $60 per barrel for gasoline powered light-duty vehicles, and three to four times more than will oil at $60 per barrel for light-duty vehicles running on diesel,” says Lewis.

As a result, the report says, the long-term break-even oil price for gasoline to remain competitive as a source of mobility is $9 - $10 per barrel, and for diesel $17 - $19 a barrel .

“The clear conclusion of our analysis is that if we were building out the global energy system from scratch today, economics alone would dictate that at a minimum the road-transportation infrastructure would be built up around EVs powered by wind- and solar-generated electricity,” he adds....

https://www.forbes.com/sites/mikescott/2019/09/02/economics-of-electric-vehicles...

Back to top

"If you take out Saddam, I guarantee you that it will have enormous positive reverberations on the region..." - Benjamin Netanyahu in 1995

IP Logged

Sir lastnail Gold Member Offline Australian Politics Posts: 30923 Gender:	Re: Economics of EV's Mean Oil's Days are numbered Reply #1 - Nov 18^th, 2019 at 10:32am 197.9 for PULP !!! Yep oil's days are numbered and EV's are here to stay
Back to top	"If you take out Saddam, I guarantee you that it will have enormous positive reverberations on the region..." - Benjamin Netanyahu in 1995 IP Logged

UnSubRocky Gold Member Offline Crocodile Hunter: Origins Posts: 25387 Rockhampton Gender:	Re: Economics of EV's Mean Oil's Days are numbered Reply #2 - Nov 18^th, 2019 at 6:32pm You have to charge your car for 10 minutes just to get some reasonable battery power. Then you have to charge the car overnight just to get it to near or to 100%. I wonder how much an electricity bill will be each quarter with these cars?
Back to top	At this stage... IP Logged

Sir lastnail

Gold Member

Offline

Australian Politics

Posts: 30923
Gender: male

Re: Economics of EV's Mean Oil's Days are numbered
Reply #3 - Nov 19^th, 2019 at 4:13pm

UnSubRocky wrote on Nov 18^th, 2019 at 6:32pm:

You have to charge your car for 10 minutes just to get some reasonable battery power. Then you have to charge the car overnight just to get it to near or to 100%.

I wonder how much an electricity bill will be each quarter with these cars?

Wiith rooftop solar you can almost get it for nothing. How much you save compared to paying $2 a liter at the fossil fool bowser ? And don't forget the big $$$ forked out on service !!

Back to top

"If you take out Saddam, I guarantee you that it will have enormous positive reverberations on the region..." - Benjamin Netanyahu in 1995

IP Logged

UnSubRocky Gold Member Offline Crocodile Hunter: Origins Posts: 25387 Rockhampton Gender:	Re: Economics of EV's Mean Oil's Days are numbered Reply #4 - Nov 19^th, 2019 at 9:06pm Uhuh, rooftop solar. Then in 10 to 15 years, when you have to replace the panels, how much does that cost?
Back to top	At this stage... IP Logged

Sir lastnail

Gold Member

Offline

Australian Politics

Posts: 30923
Gender: male

Re: Economics of EV's Mean Oil's Days are numbered
Reply #5 - Nov 19^th, 2019 at 10:05pm

UnSubRocky wrote on Nov 19^th, 2019 at 9:06pm:

Uhuh, rooftop solar. Then in 10 to 15 years, when you have to replace the panels, how much does that cost?

And how much does 15 years of fossil fool set you back ?? Lets say 100 bucks a week over 15 years is 15 * 5200 = 78K vs 2.5K for a new rooftop solar PV system and that's not even including service and parts for the clunker Sad

I would say there is no contest wouldn't you Wink

Back to top

"If you take out Saddam, I guarantee you that it will have enormous positive reverberations on the region..." - Benjamin Netanyahu in 1995

IP Logged

UnSubRocky

Gold Member

Offline

Crocodile Hunter: Origins

Posts: 25387
Rockhampton
Gender: male

Re: Economics of EV's Mean Oil's Days are numbered
Reply #6 - Nov 20^th, 2019 at 12:29am

In my teens, I did pizza deliveries. Fuel was about $1/L back then. Never spent more than $50 per week. These days, I use my car to do general shopping and the occasional drive to the beach. But, normally, a $50 tank of fuel (35L at $1.50/L) can last a month.

$4000 for 5 solar panels. $60,000 for a Hyundai Kona (+rego and repair expenses). $4,200+/yr

$2600/yr on fuel costs. $20,000 car (+rego and repair expenses)/15 = $1,333 + $2,600 = $3,933 per year.

It would roughly work out they are both as expensive as each other to run.

When electric vehicles are no longer a rare form of transportation, the price of those cars will come down. In 10 years time, apart from a fuel shortage forcing people's hands, electric vehicles will be very competitive.

But, for now, petrol powered vehicles seem more economical.

Back to top

At this stage...

IP Logged

Sir lastnail

Gold Member

Offline

Australian Politics

Posts: 30923
Gender: male

Re: Economics of EV's Mean Oil's Days are numbered
Reply #7 - Nov 20^th, 2019 at 9:45am

UnSubRocky wrote on Nov 20^th, 2019 at 12:29am:

In my teens, I did pizza deliveries. Fuel was about $1/L back then. Never spent more than $50 per week. These days, I use my car to do general shopping and the occasional drive to the beach. But, normally, a $50 tank of fuel (35L at $1.50/L) can last a month.

$4000 for 5 solar panels. $60,000 for a Hyundai Kona (+rego and repair expenses). $4,200+/yr

$2600/yr on fuel costs. $20,000 car (+rego and repair expenses)/15 = $1,333 + $2,600 = $3,933 per year.

It would roughly work out they are both as expensive as each other to run.

When electric vehicles are no longer a rare form of transportation, the price of those cars will come down. In 10 years time, apart from a fuel shortage forcing people's hands, electric vehicles will be very competitive.

But, for now, petrol powered vehicles seem more economical.

You compare to something years ago when petrol was half the price and the streets were probably not gridlocked like they are now. And you worry about a 2.5K solar PV installation failing at exactly the 15 yo mark like there is some unwritten time limit and as though clunkers never fail Cheesy

LOL Even directly charging up from mains you are still way ahead of a clunker and then there is parts and service and the mandatory oil changes. $100 a week is not unrealistic to spend on a clunker Wink

Back to top

"If you take out Saddam, I guarantee you that it will have enormous positive reverberations on the region..." - Benjamin Netanyahu in 1995

IP Logged

UnSubRocky

Gold Member

Offline

Crocodile Hunter: Origins

Posts: 25387
Rockhampton
Gender: male

Re: Economics of EV's Mean Oil's Days are numbered
Reply #8 - Nov 20^th, 2019 at 10:00pm

I guess my maths checks out.

At $1/L, I was driving around a small car with a 20L petrol tank. That is $20 to fill a tank. I switched over to another small car, with a 40L tank. It was economical and only used up a little more petrol than the first car. Today, I drive around another small car. It has a 45L tank. I fill the tank every 3 to 4 weeks. $60 to fill the tank at most if the tank is 5L off empty. $900 on fuel is quite okay for a yearly run around. Even my pizza delivery days did not mean that I was spending much more than $50 a week on fuel.

Electric vehicles will break down and need replacement batteries every few years. When they become cheaper to run, they will replace petrol-powered vehicles.

Back to top

At this stage...

IP Logged

Sir lastnail

Gold Member

Offline

Australian Politics

Posts: 30923
Gender: male

Re: Economics of EV's Mean Oil's Days are numbered
Reply #9 - Nov 20^th, 2019 at 10:42pm

UnSubRocky wrote on Nov 20^th, 2019 at 10:00pm:

I guess my maths checks out.

At $1/L, I was driving around a small car with a 20L petrol tank. That is $20 to fill a tank. I switched over to another small car, with a 40L tank. It was economical and only used up a little more petrol than the first car. Today, I drive around another small car. It has a 45L tank. I fill the tank every 3 to 4 weeks. $60 to fill the tank at most if the tank is 5L off empty. $900 on fuel is quite okay for a yearly run around. Even my pizza delivery days did not mean that I was spending much more than $50 a week on fuel.

Electric vehicles will break down and need replacement batteries every few years. When they become cheaper to run, they will replace petrol-powered vehicles.

More untruths about battery life ! Try running a fossil fool vehicle without its obligatory service regimen. See how long it lasts Cheesy

LOL

Back to top

"If you take out Saddam, I guarantee you that it will have enormous positive reverberations on the region..." - Benjamin Netanyahu in 1995

IP Logged

UnSubRocky

Gold Member

Offline

Crocodile Hunter: Origins

Posts: 25387
Rockhampton
Gender: male

Re: Economics of EV's Mean Oil's Days are numbered
Reply #10 - Nov 21^st, 2019 at 6:23am

Sir lastnail wrote on Nov 20^th, 2019 at 10:42pm:

More untruths about battery life ! Try running a fossil fool vehicle without its obligatory service regimen. See how long it lasts Cheesy

LOL

Well, I am taking my car in for its yearly service this morning. I was not arguing that cars don't need maintenance. I was arguing that the batteries will not last forever.

Back to top

At this stage...

IP Logged

Sir lastnail

Gold Member

Offline

Australian Politics

Posts: 30923
Gender: male

Re: Economics of EV's Mean Oil's Days are numbered
Reply #11 - Nov 21^st, 2019 at 10:03am

UnSubRocky wrote on Nov 21^st, 2019 at 6:23am:

Sir lastnail wrote on Nov 20^th, 2019 at 10:42pm:

More untruths about battery life ! Try running a fossil fool vehicle without its obligatory service regimen. See how long it lasts Cheesy

LOL

Well, I am taking my car in for its yearly service this morning. I was not arguing that cars don't need maintenance. I was arguing that the batteries will not last forever.

They'll last a lot more than what you think they do Wink

Back to top

"If you take out Saddam, I guarantee you that it will have enormous positive reverberations on the region..." - Benjamin Netanyahu in 1995

IP Logged