Gosh another ICE AGE!!!! The Lunatic Extremist Greenies will be coughing up fur balls and frothing at the mouth.

They want people to believe in their nonsense about the World Ending and that their UN One World Socialist "Govt" in a Sustainable World is the ONLY SOLUTION that can save the world!!!



Brrr! Whatever happened to Global warming ???



Will earth enter a mini ice age in 2030?
Kirsten Hacker, PhD Accelerator Physics, University of Hamburg (2010) Updated Nov 4

There was a lot of pop-sci press discrediting Zharakova, the physicist who ended up on the front-page for her model of solar cycles and her prediction that we will have a cold spell centered around 2030, but the bad press came primarily from people who had an agenda: climate change fanatics and people whose solar models disagreed with hers.

First of all, Zharakova is a professor, she collaborates with researchers from other institutes, and she has published her work in peer-reviewed journals. Her publication generated hype because she suggested that we would have a 50-year cold spell similar to the Dalton Minimum or the Maunder Minimum, times when agriculture was poor and the river Thames froze solid. These time periods were not good, but the human race survived, of course.

Her hypothesis is that the sun can be modeled as a two-layer system in which oscillations from those layers combine to form our sunspot cycles. The equation she uses is astoundingly simple but it fits the data over both long and short timescales very well. Researchers who develop more complicated models are understandably skeptical of her result since it would mean that their work was not necessary.

Her equation is a sum over a bunch of functions with the form Acos(wt+phi) * cos(Bcos(wt+phi)). She made a more complicated function by adding a term for a quadrupolar mode as well and that improved the fit, but, of course, adding more adjustable parameters always improves a fit.

Zharakova has a talk on youtube, but she doesn’t have pop-sci presentation skills, so it is easy to tune out simply because the style is not terribly ‘commercial’. If you skip ahead to around 25 minutes in, you get to the meat of the presentation. She basically did Fourier analysis of a segment of recent sunspot data and compared that to longer-term and short-term data.

She modeled the sun as having two layers with different oscillation frequencies which mix and it is rather surprising that her fit matches data over both 1000 years and over the past 35 years. It suggests that the oscillations in the sun are quite repeatable and understandable. Other experts insist that it is much more complicated and chaotic (nonlinear) than that.

Video: About this.

It might be more complicated, but that doesn’t mean that the simple model is wrong. Call it a first order approximation, but if it has predictive power over 1000 years and over 35 years, that is pretty darn good.

In any case, the model makes a testable prediction. If the sunspots are less frequent over the coming 20 years, she was right!

In response to human-caused climate change proponents, she did not claim expertise in the carbon-cycle, but she said that there is evidence that when the sun’s magnetic field is as weak as it is during a solar minimum, the earth tends to get colder not because the solar output is so greatly reduced, but because the charged particles from the solar wind influence cloud formation.

Another possibility is that a weak solar magnetic field corresponds to increased heat from the core of the Earth making it into the oceans and increasing evaporation (clouds).

She correctly points out that carbon-cycle based climate models do not incorporate the influence of magnetic fields on their models.

This is what I know about these issues:

How does earth's magnetic field protect us against solar wind?   https://www.quora.com/Planetary-Science-How-does-earths-magnetic-field-protect-u...

Why is the magnetic field near the Arctic acting weird?   https://www.quora.com/Why-is-the-magnetic-field-near-the-Arctic-acting-weird/ans...


https://www.quora.com/Will-earth-enter-a-mini-ice-age-in-2030

Capt N how do you know ?  Tarot cards ?   Warm clothes will become very costly.

juliar wrote on Nov 11^th, 2019 at 10:49am:


no

Bobby. wrote on Nov 11^th, 2019 at 11:30am:


The thing is ... X amount of Solar energy comes in and X amount of Solar energy goes out minus the amount held by Greenhouse gasses ...

End result?

Warming. 

lee wrote on Nov 11^th, 2019 at 2:26pm:



Bad choice of words ... they "hold the energy" within the atmosphere by radiating the heat all over the place instead of letting it all pass out to space.

Happy now Mr. Pedant?   

I think the Greeny Capt N is confusing greenhouse gases with the gases that slow heat transfer thru the atmosphere.

Greenhouse gases were big in the ozone hole days and have subsided with the change in air conditioning gas.




Water vapor is by far the biggest inhibitor of heat passing thru the atmosphere with carbon dioxide having a negligible effect.

Just goes to show why nobody ever believes anything that comes out of a Greeny because when they do not know they just make it up.




Capt N probably won't be able to follow this factual diagram but it clearly shows carbon dioxide has very little effect on heat passing thru the atmosphere.

Now what The Greenies hate - factual analysis and not DoomsDay screeching.


Another glacial advance is coming, no doubt about it: but just 12 years from now? No.

The more complete answer is: we are in an “Ice Age” right now, and have been for 2.6 million years, since the Pleistocene epoch kicked off the Quaternary period. The Pleistocene ended about 12,000 years ago when the last set of Continental glaciers retreated. Since then we have been in the Holocene epoch, which is really an inter-glacial warming period. The warming is temporary and the three astronomical mechanisms (Milankovitch Cycles) that control the amount of solar energy the world receives will again soon negatively reinforce each other and the glaciers will advance again.

The timing on that is uncertain, because humans were not paying attention and keeping records 12,000 years ago, so we are forced to use “proxy” data like information from ice cores, rather than a written record of direct-reading thermometers. That introduces a lot of uncertainty.

In gross terms many scientists who are not Anthropogenic Global Warming alarmists believe we are near the temperature maximum of this interglacial period. Sure, it could get slightly warmer for another 20 or 100 years, but despite what alarmists are shouting, many scientists think the warming trend has already started to reverse. But if it has, remember: it took almost 12,000 years for the glaciers to retreat from roughly the latitude of New York City to where they are now. It will take almost the same amount of time to get re-established to that level of glaciation. It is a slow process.

So another epoch of glaciation is imminent, geologically speaking. In the northern hemisphere we will have glacial ice covering the land down to the New York area. The timing on that will likely be between 10,000 to 50,000 years.

Gosh DNA gets around. Who would have thought he would have the slightest interest in a coming ICE AGE.

It is not easy to predict with any certainty what will happen but the genuine researchers (not lying Greeny frauds with a hidden agenda) do have quite a bit of evidence to suggest one will come eventually.

It has happened before and not so long ago either as the Thames once froze over.

Global Warming will be a blessing if the joint does cool down.



It is all rather complicated is it not and exceedingly difficult to model.