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11,000 scientists declare climate emergency ! (Read 4202 times)
lee
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Re: 11,000 scientists declare climate emergency !
Reply #15 - Nov 9th, 2019 at 4:22pm
 
Sir lastnail wrote on Nov 9th, 2019 at 3:40pm:
Half the CO2 in the atmosphere is attributable to human activity. Ignoring or denying it won't make it go away or fix the underlying problems.



And of course you have a reference for that? Grin Grin Grin Grin
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Bobby.
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Re: 11,000 scientists declare climate emergency !
Reply #16 - Nov 9th, 2019 at 4:30pm
 
https://skepticalscience.com/human-co2-smaller-than-natural-emissions.htm


Human CO2 is a tiny % of CO2 emissions

“The oceans contain 37,400 billion tons (GT) of suspended carbon, land biomass has 2000-3000 GT. The atmosphere contains 720 billion tons of CO2 and humans contribute only 6 GT additional load on this balance. The oceans, land and atmosphere exchange CO2 continuously so the additional load by humans is incredibly small. A small shift in the balance between oceans and air would cause a CO2 much more severe rise than anything we could produce.” (Jeff Id)

Before the industrial revolution, the CO2 content in the air remained quite steady for thousands of years. Natural CO2 is not static, however. It is generated by natural processes, and absorbed by others.

As you can see in Figure 1, natural land and ocean carbon remains roughly in balance and have done so for a long time – and we know this because we can measure historic levels of CO2 in the atmosphere both directly (in ice cores) and indirectly (through proxies).

Figure 1: Global carbon cycle. Numbers represent flux of carbon dioxide in gigatons (Source: Figure 7.3, IPCC AR4).

But consider what happens when more CO2 is released from outside of the natural carbon cycle – by burning fossil fuels. Although our output of 29 gigatons of CO2 is tiny compared to the 750 gigatons moving through the carbon cycle each year, it adds up because the land and ocean cannot absorb all of the extra CO2. About 40% of this additional CO2 is absorbed. The rest remains in the atmosphere, and as a consequence, atmospheric CO2 is at its highest level in 15 to 20 million years (Tripati 2009). (A natural change of 100ppm normally takes 5,000 to 20,000 years. The recent increase of 100ppm has taken just 120 years).

Human CO2 emissions upset the natural balance of the carbon cycle. Man-made CO2 in the atmosphere has increased by a third since the pre-industrial era, creating an artificial forcing of global temperatures which is warming the planet. While fossil-fuel derived CO2 is a very small component of the global carbon cycle, the extra CO2 is cumulative because the natural carbon exchange cannot absorb all the additional CO2.

The level of atmospheric CO2 is building up, the additional CO2 is being produced by burning fossil fuels, and that build up is accelerating.
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Sir lastnail
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Re: 11,000 scientists declare climate emergency !
Reply #17 - Nov 9th, 2019 at 4:31pm
 
Heaven forbid that we have to charge up our electric cars from our own rooftop solar. Heaven forbid that we no longer have to take it up the arse at the fossil fool bowser and get ripped off on service and parts for our old polluting clunkers. Heaven forbid Cheesy LOL
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Sir lastnail
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Re: 11,000 scientists declare climate emergency !
Reply #18 - Nov 9th, 2019 at 4:32pm
 
lee wrote on Nov 9th, 2019 at 4:22pm:
Sir lastnail wrote on Nov 9th, 2019 at 3:40pm:
Half the CO2 in the atmosphere is attributable to human activity. Ignoring or denying it won't make it go away or fix the underlying problems.



And of course you have a reference for that? Grin Grin Grin Grin


so setting fire to fossil fools does not create 1 additional ounce of CO2 emissions Cheesy LOL
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"If you take out Saddam, I guarantee you that it will have enormous positive reverberations on the region..." - Benjamin Netanyahu in 1995
 
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lee
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Re: 11,000 scientists declare climate emergency !
Reply #19 - Nov 9th, 2019 at 4:41pm
 
Sir lastnail wrote on Nov 9th, 2019 at 4:32pm:
so setting fire to fossil fools does not create 1 additional ounce of CO2 emissions


Trying to worm your way out of what you said by changing the subject? Oh dear.

So you don't have a reference for "Half the CO2 in the atmosphere is attributable to human activity"?  Typical. Wink
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Sir lastnail
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Re: 11,000 scientists declare climate emergency !
Reply #20 - Nov 10th, 2019 at 9:49am
 
lee wrote on Nov 9th, 2019 at 4:41pm:
Sir lastnail wrote on Nov 9th, 2019 at 4:32pm:
so setting fire to fossil fools does not create 1 additional ounce of CO2 emissions


Trying to worm your way out of what you said by changing the subject? Oh dear.

So you don't have a reference for "Half the CO2 in the atmosphere is attributable to human activity"?  Typical. Wink


Do you ?
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lee
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Re: 11,000 scientists declare climate emergency !
Reply #21 - Nov 10th, 2019 at 12:19pm
 
Sir lastnail wrote on Nov 10th, 2019 at 9:49am:
Do you ?


It is not for me to provide any type of confirmation of your assertions.

However, I have seen a paper that says that. so I looked at it.

" Although approximately one-half of total CO2 emissions is at present taken up by combined land and ocean carbon reservoirs2, models predict a decline in future carbon uptake by these reservoirs, resulting in a positive carbon–climate feedback3.."

https://www.nature.com/articles/nature11299
Now note 2 reference is to "Recent patterns and mechanisms of carbon exchange by terrestrial ecosystems"

https://www.nature.com/articles/35102500#citeas

or

http://sci-hub.tw/https://doi.org/10.1038/35102500

Note they are all derived from models, in fact they have a consensus of models. Grin Grin Grin Grin Grin
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Captain Nemo
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Re: 11,000 scientists declare climate emergency !
Reply #22 - Nov 10th, 2019 at 3:34pm
 
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lee
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Re: 11,000 scientists declare climate emergency !
Reply #23 - Nov 10th, 2019 at 4:36pm
 
CN, So where did you find a claim that CO2 hadn't increased?
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Sir lastnail
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Re: 11,000 scientists declare climate emergency !
Reply #24 - Nov 10th, 2019 at 11:07pm
 
I should have said that human contribution is increasing CO2 by 73% a year Wink

Quote:
The CO2 that nature emits (from the ocean and vegetation) is balanced by natural absorptions (again by the ocean and vegetation). Therefore human emissions upset the natural balance, rising CO2 to levels not seen in at least 800,000 years. In fact, human emit 26 gigatonnes of CO2 per year while CO2 in the atmosphere is rising by only 15 gigatonnes per year - much of human CO2 emissions is being absorbed by natural sinks.


https://skepticalscience.com/human-co2-smaller-than-natural-emissions-intermedia...
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lee
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Re: 11,000 scientists declare climate emergency !
Reply #25 - Nov 11th, 2019 at 11:35am
 
Sir lastnail wrote on Nov 10th, 2019 at 11:07pm:
I should have said that human contribution is increasing CO2 by 73% a year



Really?. Nowhere in your statement reflects that. So if CO2 goes from 410ppm to 412ppm it is a 73% increase? Grin Grin Grin Grin Grin Grin

From your "reference" -

"Manmade CO2 emissions are much smaller than natural emissions. Consumption of vegetation by animals & microbes accounts for about 220 gigatonnes of CO2 per year. Respiration by vegetation emits around 220 gigatonnes. The ocean releases about 332 gigatonnes. In contrast, when you combine the effect of fossil fuel burning and changes in land use, human CO2 emissions are only around 29 gigatonnes per year."

So we have 772Gt of natural CO2 and about 29Gt of human emissions according to your source which is undated and 32Gt emissions in 2008 which is updated at the bottom.

33.1Gt in 2018. So that is a 3% increase in 10 years.

https://www.abc.net.au/news/2019-03-26/global-carbon-emissions-hit-record-high-i...

Do you want to try again?

BTW those estimates for natural emissions are just that, estimations.
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Captain Nemo
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Re: 11,000 scientists declare climate emergency !
Reply #26 - Nov 11th, 2019 at 1:58pm
 
I would have settled on approx. 60% increase due to human activity.

Given the rise from pre-industrial revolution values of atmospheric CO2 ppm to today.



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lee
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Re: 11,000 scientists declare climate emergency !
Reply #27 - Nov 11th, 2019 at 2:03pm
 
Captain Nemo wrote on Nov 11th, 2019 at 1:58pm:
I would have settled on approx. 60% increase due to human activity.

Given the rise from pre-industrial revolution values of atmospheric CO2 ppm to today.






Even though plant stomata data seems to show those pre-industrial levels unreliable..
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Re: 11,000 scientists declare climate emergency !
Reply #28 - Nov 11th, 2019 at 2:23pm
 
I suppose if we take the ice core data as being a pretty good measure, then overall, atmospheric CO2 ppm are up about 35% to 40% since pre-industrial Revolution times.  Shocked

That's a lot!

Even worse, the increase is exponential, not linear.  Sad



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lee
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Re: 11,000 scientists declare climate emergency !
Reply #29 - Nov 11th, 2019 at 2:35pm
 
Captain Nemo wrote on Nov 11th, 2019 at 2:23pm:
I suppose if we take the ice core data as being a pretty good measure, then overall, atmospheric CO2 ppm are up about 35% to 40% since pre-industrial Revolution times.



There are problems with the ice core data because of losses in the firn.

Captain Nemo wrote on Nov 11th, 2019 at 2:23pm:
Even worse, the increase is exponential, not linear.


The increase is not exponential.

...

The effect is diminishing exponentially not increasing exponentially. Most of any warming is in the first 200ppm.

"Equilibrium GCM 2 x CO2 experiments commonly assume a radiative forcing equivalent to a doubling of CO2 concentration (for example from 300 ppmv to 600 ppmv). In fact the absolute concentrations are not especially important, as the temperature response to increasing CO2 concentration is logarithmic - a doubling from 500 to 1000 ppmv would have approximately the same climatic effect."

https://www.ipcc-data.org/guidelines/pages/reporting.html

So a 1.5c per doubling 300ppm to 600ppm would give the approximately same amount of warming from 500ppm to 1000ppm. Or roughly the same amount of warming per doubling.
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