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Bushfires: Temperatures 10C above average forecast (Read 53 times)
Laugh till you cry
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Bushfires: Temperatures 10C above average forecast
Sep 14th, 2019 at 12:10pm
 
This has the akings of a horror summer for Australia if dry weather and high temperature persists.

The fire-blackened areas will raise the temperature further in the locations the fires passed through.

The number of fires is causing the disintegration of resource sharing between states and localities firefighters are stretched everywhere.

https://www.theguardian.com/australia-news/2019/sep/14/temperatures-10-degrees-a...

Quote:
Temperatures 10C above average forecast as 130 bushfires continue to burn
Bureau of Meteorology says stubborn high pressure system will create hot and dry conditions over weekend and next week

Josh Taylor

Firefighters in New South Wales and Queensland are gearing up for a week of unseasonably warm weather as they continue to battle blazes across the two states.

And the former head of NSW’s urban fire service says early Australian bushfire seasons are here to stay, as he urges the federal government to step in as resources and firefighting assets stretch beyond current capacity.

Greg Mullins served as commissioner of Fire and Rescue NSW from 2004 until his retirement in 2017 and currently sits on the Climate Council, a national climate change communications body.

With NSW bushfires making an early mark in 2019 – including the destruction of nine homes over the past week in the state’s north – Mullins says authorities should prepare for more of the same in coming years.

He says the entire Australian strategy of tackling bushfires – sharing firefighting resources between states as the risk moves from northern states in spring to southern states in summer – is under threat.

Climate change has made nights and winters warmer, increasing the possibility extreme bushfires would burn in different states simultaneously.

“What’s becoming difficult is the whole paradigm of strategic firefighting in Australia – it was predicated on progressive fire seasons,” he says.

“As we saw last year and now, we’re getting simultaneous fire seasons.

“States are having to resource their own fires while other states are screaming out for help and there’ll be times when each state says, you’re on your own.”


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Conditions have eased since the strong winds earlier this week fanned more than 130 fires across Queensland and New South Wales, but there are still 70 fires still burning in Queensland and 45 south of the border in NSW.

Jonathan How, a forecaster at the Bureau of Meteorology, told Guardian Australia it would be a very warm weekend across north-east New South Wales and south-east Queensland, and those conditions would extend into next week.

“The main reason we are seeing these very warm conditions is we have a very stubborn high pressure system sitting over the centre of the continent and so that is basically preventing any cooler conditions from making it any further north.”


He said there would be clear skies and temperatures between 6C and 10C above average for this time of year on the weekend, and up to 12C above average next week.

Most of the fire sites would experience temperatures in the high 20s and low 30s, he said.

“That’s going to lead to high to very high fire dangers, which will keep conditions quite challenging for fighting the fires.

“The one saviour for the firefighters is the winds aren’t as strong as what we saw last week.”

But winds could pick up later in the week when a cold front comes through on Thursday. He said there was no forecast for rain in the fire-affected areas in the next week.

John Bolger, acting commissioner for the Queensland Fire and Emergency Service, said a westerly wind change on Friday lowered the humidity and increased the temperature, meaning the 600 firefighters and 15 fire trucks in the field would be busy over the weekend.

“Peregian fires are pretty much contained. We did have a flare-up this afternoon but we were able to bomb that with helicopters,” he said.

“Our area of concern this weekend, among others around the state, is the Sarabah fires,” he said.

NSW Rural Fire Service inspector Ben Shepherd told Guardian Australia firefighters had been dealing with similar conditions for a few months.

“We’ve been dealing with above average temperatures and a very dry landscape for a number of months,” he said. 
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lee
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Re: Bushfires: Temperatures 10C above average forecast
Reply #1 - Sep 14th, 2019 at 2:49pm
 
Laugh till you cry wrote on Sep 14th, 2019 at 12:10pm:
Climate change has made nights and winters warmer, increasing the possibility extreme bushfires would burn in different states simultaneously.



Climate change does not light bushfires. Weather has an effect on bushfires.
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Jovial Monk
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Re: Bushfires: Temperatures 10C above average forecast
Reply #2 - Sep 14th, 2019 at 3:11pm
 
The hotter it is the more likely EXTREME bushfires will occur.
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lee
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Re: Bushfires: Temperatures 10C above average forecast
Reply #3 - Sep 14th, 2019 at 4:34pm
 
Jovial Monk wrote on Sep 14th, 2019 at 3:11pm:
The hotter it is the more likely EXTREME bushfires will occur.



Not so, it depends on the burn load. if the place has been burnt within the last 5 years there will be limited burnable understory. Every couple of years would be better.

You can't get an extreme fire where there is no fuel.
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