Jovial Monk wrote on Aug 22
nd, 2019 at 5:16pm:
And it is the aging fleet of coal fired generators that are likely to crash offline in the heat:
https://thenewdaily.com.au/news/national/2019/08/22/summer-blackout-risk/
Excerpts
"The dangers are highest in Victoria, where the Australian Energy Market Operator said more than a million households might at times be forced to endure scorching temperatures without electricity."
They have already closed Hazlewood with the takeup supposedly coming from renewables
"But up to 770,000 homes across the state will f
ace a blackout risk on extreme heat days once the Liddell coal-fired power station plant has closed in 2023-24, unless action is taken, according to AEMO’s latest Electricity Statement of Opportunities."
The replacement is supposed to be renewables and already they are sayig it is going to get worse when they close Liddell.
"The report said Australia’s power reliability would continue to decline in the next decade, “due to an uncontrollable, but increasingly likely, high-impact” event in the nation’s “ageing coal fleet”."
We won't blame the renewables that were supposed to take up any shortfall.
And of course hot days tend to be windless days. Not guaranteed of course Because some of the worst fires have been on hot windy days.
"Residents and businesses on Australia’s east coast have been warned to prepare for increased risk of blackouts this summer, with more generator failures likely on hot days.
The dangers are highest in Victoria, where the Australian Energy Market Operator said more than a million households might at times be forced to endure scorching temperatures without electricity.
AEMO said NSW was projected to meet its reliability standard “with a more comfortable margin this summer” than last.
AEMO said unplanned shutdowns at Victoria’s Loy Yang A2 and Mortlake 2 power stations posed a significant likelihood of leaving residents with insufficient supply – which might lead to involuntary load shedding.
“Compared to last year’s forecast, AEMO observes greater risks of load shedding due to uncontrollable, but increasingly likely, high-impact (‘tail risk’) events such as simultaneous unplanned outages during hot days,” the report said.
It urgently called for more electricity supply or other solutions to meet high summer demand.
In NSW, the gradual closure of the Liddell coal-fired power station and a combination of high summer demand and unplanned generator outages would leave residents “exposed to significant supply gaps and involuntary load shedding” at peak times.
AEMO said Australia needed to invest in dispatchable power, such as coal, gas, battery and pumped hydro, to meet the expected shortfall during peak demand as older coal plants closed in the coming decade."
No mention of renewables there.
"Ageing coal-fired power stations would be to blame for any summer blackouts in Victoria, the Climate Council argued.
Australia’s modern energy system needed more large-scale renewables such as solar and wind paired with storage, the group said."
I guess the Climate Council call renewables "dispatchable".