Australian Politics Forum - Evidence for global warming.

DonDeeHippy Gold Member Offline Cool Stuff Posts: 2782 Australia Gender:	Re: Evidence for global warming. Reply #195 - Jun 14^th, 2019 at 1:01pm Lee is right you guys, the world hasn't warmed up at all, 30 years ago the UN said the world would heat up and oceans rice etc etc… Now it hasn't the UN now have made up the Mini Ice Age to explain why the world isn't heating up.. Meanwhile the Earth just keeps spinning
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Robot

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Re: Evidence for global warming.
Reply #196 - Jun 14^th, 2019 at 1:07pm

lee wrote on Jun 14^th, 2019 at 11:48am:

Robot wrote on Jun 13^th, 2019 at 11:04pm:

Rather, the point is that a blog article by a hobbyist ("citizen scientist") just isn't worth looking at.

Because you disagree with the numbers? Oh that's right you found it too difficult to check.

Because you like your "appeals to Authority"? Grin

You seem to be one of those people who believe in the Gamblers Fallacy.

If you take a number of temperature readings with a thermometer that has accuracy of +/-0.5C, the accuracy doesn't improve for the averaged product. The accuracy stays the same, +/-0.5C.

Like the Sea Level Rise using the Jason satellite series. They have an accuracy of 3.3cm or 33mm. Yet claim they can tell the SLR to within 0.1mm.

And all that with an earth that is ellipsoid, subject to tidal influence, waves, storm surge among others. And they can tell SLR down to the merest windblown ripple. Grin

Robot wrote on Jun 13^th, 2019 at 11:04pm:

You just don't have the toolset.

Who needs it when the "tool" is you? Wink

Just proving my point.

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Bobby.

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Re: Evidence for global warming.
Reply #197 - Jun 14^th, 2019 at 1:26pm

DonDeeHippy wrote on Jun 14^th, 2019 at 1:01pm:

Lee is right you guys, the world hasn't warmed up at all, 30 years ago the UN said the world would heat up and oceans rice etc etc… Now it hasn't the UN now have made up the Mini Ice Age to explain why the world isn't heating up..
Meanwhile the Earth just keeps spinning Wink

But we need a link with some authority behind it.

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Johnnie

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Re: Evidence for global warming.
Reply #198 - Jun 14^th, 2019 at 1:54pm

DonDeeHippy wrote on Jun 14^th, 2019 at 1:01pm:

Lee is right you guys, the world hasn't warmed up at all, 30 years ago the UN said the world would heat up and oceans rice etc etc… Now it hasn't the UN now have made up the Mini Ice Age to explain why the world isn't heating up..
Meanwhile the Earth just keeps spinning Wink

NASA and 97% of climate scientists would disagree with you.

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greggerypeccary

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Re: Evidence for global warming.
Reply #199 - Jun 14^th, 2019 at 1:57pm

Johnnie wrote on Jun 14^th, 2019 at 1:54pm:

DonDeeHippy wrote on Jun 14^th, 2019 at 1:01pm:

Lee is right you guys, the world hasn't warmed up at all, 30 years ago the UN said the world would heat up and oceans rice etc etc… Now it hasn't the UN now have made up the Mini Ice Age to explain why the world isn't heating up..
Meanwhile the Earth just keeps spinning Wink

NASA and 97% of climate scientists would disagree with you.

Lol

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GOP = Guardians Of Paedophiles

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lee Gold Member Offline Australian Politics Posts: 21391 Gender:	Re: Evidence for global warming. Reply #200 - Jun 14^th, 2019 at 1:59pm Robot wrote on Jun 14^th, 2019 at 1:07pm: Just proving my point. The numpty has a point?
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lee Gold Member Offline Australian Politics Posts: 21391 Gender:	Re: Evidence for global warming. Reply #201 - Jun 14^th, 2019 at 2:06pm Johnnie wrote on Jun 14^th, 2019 at 1:54pm: NASA and 97% of climate scientists would disagree with you. Is that the NASA the cites Cook et al 2013, which didn't say 97% of climate scientists agreed? Or the NASA that cites Doran and Zimmerman's 79 climate scientists out of over 3000 that responded?
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Johnnie

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Re: Evidence for global warming.
Reply #202 - Jun 14^th, 2019 at 2:57pm

lee wrote on Jun 14^th, 2019 at 2:06pm:

Johnnie wrote on Jun 14^th, 2019 at 1:54pm:

NASA and 97% of climate scientists would disagree with you.

Is that the NASA the cites Cook et al 2013, which didn't say 97% of climate scientists agreed?

Or the NASA that cites Doran and Zimmerman's 79 climate scientists out of over 3000 that responded?

Grin

We have been on this merry go round before, I am inclined to believe NASA and the scientists with expertise in this area above you, I say that nicely rose bud.

Further evidence for global warming is exhibit A below, its what remains of my favorite plum tree after the latest summer in OZ, the hottest on record.

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plum_tree.jpg (10 KB | 64 )

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lee

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Re: Evidence for global warming.
Reply #203 - Jun 14^th, 2019 at 3:21pm

Johnnie wrote on Jun 14^th, 2019 at 2:57pm:

We have been on this merry go round before, I am inclined to believe NASA and the scientists with expertise in this area above you, I say that nicely rose bud.

The Ad verecundiam. Grin

So tell us what you understand about Cook et al 2013, now that is has been explained to you.

How about the number of papers in Cook et al that said more than 50% was catastrophic? Wink

Interesting that you call me rosebud and add a photo of a plum bud. Wink

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Johnnie

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Re: Evidence for global warming.
Reply #204 - Jun 14^th, 2019 at 4:26pm

lee wrote on Jun 14^th, 2019 at 3:21pm:

Johnnie wrote on Jun 14^th, 2019 at 2:57pm:

We have been on this merry go round before, I am inclined to believe NASA and the scientists with expertise in this area above you, I say that nicely rose bud.

The Ad verecundiam. Grin

So tell us what you understand about Cook et al 2013, now that is has been explained to you.

How about the number of papers in Cook et al that said more than 50% was catastrophic? Wink

Interesting that you call me rosebud and add a photo of a plum bud. Wink

Its not a bud, its dead, have you no compassion sugar plum.

Further more:
Multiple studies published in peer-reviewed scientific journals1 show that 97 percent or more of actively publishing climate scientists agree*: Climate-warming trends over the past century are extremely likely due to human activities. In addition, most of the leading scientific organizations worldwide have issued public statements endorsing this position.

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The_Barnacle

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Re: Evidence for global warming.
Reply #205 - Jun 14^th, 2019 at 4:28pm

DonDeeHippy wrote on Jun 14^th, 2019 at 1:01pm:

Lee is right you guys, the world hasn't warmed up at all, 30 years ago the UN said the world would heat up and oceans rice etc etc… Now it hasn't the UN now have made up the Mini Ice Age to explain why the world isn't heating up..
Meanwhile the Earth just keeps spinning Wink

If the world isn't warming perhaps you can explain why the worlds glaciers have been shrinking?

https://www.carbonbrief.org/shrinking-glaciers-categorical-evidence-climate-chan...
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Retreat_of_glaciers_since_1850
https://www.independent.co.uk/environment/climate-change/glaciers-in-retreat-aro...
https://nsidc.org/cryosphere/glaciers/questions/climate.html

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The Right Wing only believe in free speech when they agree with what is being said.

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lee

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Re: Evidence for global warming.
Reply #206 - Jun 14^th, 2019 at 4:44pm

Johnnie wrote on Jun 14^th, 2019 at 4:26pm:

Multiple studies published in peer-reviewed scientific journals1 show that 97 percent or more of actively publishing climate scientists agree*:

Yes petal. From NASA. And they still include Cook et al 2013 and Doran and Zimmerman. If that's the depth of their knowledge that is a huge problem. They should start by analysing the papers and get rid of the dross. Grin

But why is there this focus on "publishing" scientists? Seeing the dreck coming through where they misapply statistics it seems illogical.

There are plenty of climate scientists out there who are not publishing scientists. That does not mean their work is in any way inferior. It merely adds an artificial barrier that gives pseudo status to those published.

Johnnie wrote on Jun 14^th, 2019 at 4:26pm:

In addition, most of the leading scientific organizations worldwide have issued public statements endorsing this position.

Yes petal. How many actually polled their members on the their individual positions. The AMS was one. What are the others? Because most were endorsed by organisational diktat.

Multiple measurements using the same equipment does not improve the accuracy. That's the gamblers' fallacy.

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lee

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Re: Evidence for global warming.
Reply #207 - Jun 14^th, 2019 at 4:54pm

The_Barnacle wrote on Jun 14^th, 2019 at 4:28pm:

If the world isn't warming perhaps you can explain why the worlds glaciers have been shrinking?

Who said it hasn't been warming?

Who said that the climate doesn't change? Wink

have you dated those photographs by time of year yet?

Nice photo of the glacier in Bhutan. Didn't the IPCC say they would be gone in 30 years. It now seems not to be.

Oh that's right Global Warming causes Global Cooling, It causes greater precipitation. More snow to compact to ice. Wink

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« Last Edit: Jun 14^th, 2019 at 5:00pm by lee »

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Robot Senior Member Offline Conspirator Posts: 441 Engadine Maccas	Re: Evidence for global warming. Reply #208 - Jun 14^th, 2019 at 5:03pm lee wrote on Jun 14^th, 2019 at 4:44pm: Multiple measurements using the same equipment does not improve the accuracy. That's the gamblers' fallacy. "I don't understand random error, therefore the scientists are wrong."
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Johnnie

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Re: Evidence for global warming.
Reply #209 - Jun 14^th, 2019 at 5:04pm

lee wrote on Jun 14^th, 2019 at 4:44pm:

Johnnie wrote on Jun 14^th, 2019 at 4:26pm:

Multiple studies published in peer-reviewed scientific journals1 show that 97 percent or more of actively publishing climate scientists agree*:

Yes petal. From NASA. And they still include Cook et al 2013 and Doran and Zimmerman. If that's the depth of their knowledge that is a huge problem. They should start by analysing the papers and get rid of the dross. Grin

But why is there this focus on "publishing" scientists? Seeing the dreck coming through where they misapply statistics it seems illogical.

There are plenty of climate scientists out there who are not publishing scientists. That does not mean their work is in any way inferior. It merely adds an artificial barrier that gives pseudo status to those published.

Johnnie wrote on Jun 14^th, 2019 at 4:26pm:

In addition, most of the leading scientific organizations worldwide have issued public statements endorsing this position.

Yes petal. How many actually polled their members on the their individual positions. The AMS was one. What are the others? Because most were endorsed by organisational diktat.

Multiple measurements using the same equipment does not improve the accuracy. That's the gamblers' fallacy.

If the other scientists (the 3%) want to publish something contradictory then there is nothing stopping them, except ridicule, honey bunch.

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« Last Edit: Jun 14^th, 2019 at 5:10pm by Johnnie »

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