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Evidence for global warming. (Read 96319 times)
Robot
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Re: Evidence for global warming.
Reply #180 - Jun 12th, 2019 at 9:27pm
 
lee wrote on Jun 12th, 2019 at 8:52pm:
Robot wrote on Jun 12th, 2019 at 7:51pm:
It turns out you didn't read Cheng et al ("Hausfathers paper"); you read a blog post that doesn't even reference the article, let alone cite it.


You mean that (IAP) at the bottom of the graph?

"Figure 1. Change in ocean heat content, 1955 – 2018. Data available from Institute for Applied Physics (IAP). "

The IAP link takes you to the data. Grin Grin Grin Grin Grin Grin

And obviously you didn't understand the Cheng et al paper. Grin Grin Grin Grin Grin


The figure in the blog post isn't from Cheng et al. It's from a Carbon Brief blog article by Cheng and Hausfather. It cites the paper, but the figure itself belongs to the blog post.

https://www.carbonbrief.org/guest-post-observations-and-models-agree-that-the-oc...

I don't think you've even looked at the paper, otherwise you'd know that it wasn't in there. The paper has a different figure, which contains projections based on a couple of simulations.

lee wrote on Jun 12th, 2019 at 8:52pm:
Robot wrote on Jun 12th, 2019 at 7:51pm:
Willis Eschenbach has "no credentials in any scientific field".


Ah you that's right you don't believe in citizen scientists. Grin Grin Grin

Benjamin Franklin

Guy Callendar.

All those people that came before "climate scientists". Grin Grin Grin Grin Grin


People like Franklin and Callendar proved themselves by actually doing good science.

That's a far cry from bloggers calling themselves "citizen scientists" and writing pseudoscientific articles about other people's work.

lee wrote on Jun 12th, 2019 at 8:52pm:
BTW - Did you notice I just quoted the Cheng et al paper data? You should have you said you downloaded the paper. Grin Grin Grin Grin Grin


Yes, thanks for the link. I thought you were talking about the paper itself, since that's what you've been referring to. As I said: "I have access to the full text PDF, yes."
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lee
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Re: Evidence for global warming.
Reply #181 - Jun 12th, 2019 at 9:57pm
 
Robot wrote on Jun 12th, 2019 at 9:27pm:
The figure in the blog post isn't from Cheng et al. It's from a Carbon Brief blog article by Cheng and Hausfather. It cites the paper, but the figure itself belongs to the blog post.

https://www.carbonbrief.org/guest-post-observations-and-models-agree-that-the-oc...



That must be why the graph is presented there as Courtesy: Lijing Chen, IAP same as in the Eschenbach post. Grin Grin Grin Grin Grin Grin

Robot wrote on Jun 12th, 2019 at 9:27pm:
Yes, thanks for the link. I thought you were talking about the paper itself, since that's what you've been referring to. As I said: "I have access to the full text PDF, yes."


And you still don't understand the data. Grin Grin Grin Grin Grin
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« Last Edit: Jun 12th, 2019 at 10:05pm by lee »  
 
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Robot
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Re: Evidence for global warming.
Reply #182 - Jun 12th, 2019 at 10:11pm
 
lee wrote on Jun 12th, 2019 at 9:57pm:
Robot wrote on Jun 12th, 2019 at 9:27pm:
The figure in the blog post isn't from Cheng et al. It's from a Carbon Brief blog article by Cheng and Hausfather. It cites the paper, but the figure itself belongs to the blog post.

https://www.carbonbrief.org/guest-post-observations-and-models-agree-that-the-oc...



That must be why the graph is presented there as Courtesy: Lijing Chen, IAP. Grin Grin Grin Grin Grin Grin


A few posts ago you cited Cheng et al, but now it's obvious you were bluffing:

lee wrote on Jun 12th, 2019 at 3:06pm:
Sorry. Cheng et al  go from ºC to zettajoules. if you have trouble with that contact them. Wink

https://science.sciencemag.org/content/363/6423/128.full



lee wrote on Jun 12th, 2019 at 9:57pm:
Robot wrote on Jun 12th, 2019 at 9:27pm:
Yes, thanks for the link. I thought you were talking about the paper itself, since that's what you've been referring to. As I said: "I have access to the full text PDF, yes."


And you still don't understand the data. Grin Grin Grin Grin Grin


It's a pretty transparent act, lee. You posture a lot about how clever you are, but it's just an empty bluff, with no substance to back it up. You just parrot things you've read on wattsupwiththat.com.
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lee
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Re: Evidence for global warming.
Reply #183 - Jun 12th, 2019 at 10:40pm
 
Robot wrote on Jun 12th, 2019 at 10:11pm:
A few posts ago you cited Cheng et al, but now it's obvious you were bluffing:


Poor petal.

"Cheng, L., J. Abraham, Z. Hausfather, and K. E. Trenberth, 2019: How fast are the oceans warming? Science, 363, 128–129, https://doi.org/10.1126/science.aav7619. "

Collectively known as Cheng et al, 2019. Grin Grin Grin Grin

*et al  - and all. Wink

Robot wrote on Jun 12th, 2019 at 10:11pm:
It's a pretty transparent act, lee. You posture a lot about how clever you are, but it's just an empty bluff, with no substance to back it up. You just parrot things you've read on wattsupwiththat.com.



And yet you have "downloaded" the paper and don't understand it.

BTW- That graph on Watts is actually a screenshot from Hausfathers twitter account. Wink

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Robot
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Re: Evidence for global warming.
Reply #184 - Jun 12th, 2019 at 11:03pm
 
lee wrote on Jun 12th, 2019 at 10:40pm:
Robot wrote on Jun 12th, 2019 at 10:11pm:
A few posts ago you cited Cheng et al, but now it's obvious you were bluffing:


Poor petal.

"Cheng, L., J. Abraham, Z. Hausfather, and K. E. Trenberth, 2019: How fast are the oceans warming? Science, 363, 128–129, https://doi.org/10.1126/science.aav7619. "

Collectively known as Cheng et al, 2019. Grin Grin Grin Grin

*et al  - and all. Wink


Stating the obvious, there, lee.

lee wrote on Jun 12th, 2019 at 10:40pm:
Robot wrote on Jun 12th, 2019 at 10:11pm:
It's a pretty transparent act, lee. You posture a lot about how clever you are, but it's just an empty bluff, with no substance to back it up. You just parrot things you've read on wattsupwiththat.com.



And yet you have "downloaded" the paper and don't understand it.


This just makes me even more certain you haven't set eyes upon the article by Cheng et al. You're nothing but bluster.

lee wrote on Jun 12th, 2019 at 10:40pm:
BTW- That graph on Watts is actually a screenshot from Hausfathers twitter account. Wink


Stating the obvious, again.

The graph is actually from the Carbon Brief blog article that Hausfather cites in a twitter thread. Willis Eschenbach apparently grabbed a screencap of the tweet but didn't have the sense to link to the twitter thread. You apparently didn't even have the sense to check Hausfather's twitter account for yourself.

For someone who claims to be a good BS detector, your form is lousy.
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lee
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Re: Evidence for global warming.
Reply #185 - Jun 12th, 2019 at 11:12pm
 
Robot wrote on Jun 12th, 2019 at 11:03pm:
Stating the obvious, there, lee.
and
, but you just cant grasp the obvious.
I am glad you finally got it. Wink

Robot wrote on Jun 12th, 2019 at 11:03pm:
This just makes me even more certain you haven't set eyes upon the article by Cheng et al. You're nothing but bluster.


And you will be wrong AGAIN. I gave the the data file remember.  The data file gives the amount of Zettajoules for 2000m for both 1955 and  2018 and you can't grasp the obvious.


Robot wrote on Jun 12th, 2019 at 11:03pm:
The graph is actually from the Carbon Brief blog article that Hausfather cites in a twitter thread. Willis Eschenbach apparently grabbed a screencap of the tweet but didn't have the sense to link to the twitter thread. You apparently didn't even have the sense to check Hausfather's twitter account for yourself.


So has hausfather said that the graph from Lijing Chen is a fake? or is it real?

Robot wrote on Jun 12th, 2019 at 11:03pm:
For someone who claims to be a good BS detector, your form is lousy.



but i have you sussed. Grin Grin Grin
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Robot
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Re: Evidence for global warming.
Reply #186 - Jun 12th, 2019 at 11:29pm
 
lee wrote on Jun 12th, 2019 at 11:12pm:
So has hausfather said that the graph from Lijing Chen is a fake? or is it real?


You probably should have figured that out before you wrote this up:

lee wrote on Jun 11th, 2019 at 9:57pm:
The claim by Zeke Hausfather of 2018 being the warmest year on record.

https://4k4oijnpiu3l4c3h-zippykid.netdna-ssl.com/wp-content/uploads/2019/01/zeke...


Next time, try reading the article before critiquing it.
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lee
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Re: Evidence for global warming.
Reply #187 - Jun 13th, 2019 at 3:47pm
 
Robot wrote on Jun 12th, 2019 at 11:29pm:
You probably should have figured that out before you wrote this up:


Seeing the graph is from the lead author as stipulated, it would be safe to say it is real.  Grin Grin Grin

Unless you think Hausfather, one of the authors has been duped. Wink

Robot wrote on Jun 12th, 2019 at 11:29pm:
Next time, try reading the article before critiquing it.



Poor petal. He doesn't understand the data. Grin Grin Grin Grin

But back to the paper.

"2.6 scenario, the models project an ocean warming (0 to 2000 m) of 1037 zettajoules
(ZJ) (~0.40 K) at the end of the 21st century (mean of 2081–2100 relative to 1991–2005)"

So if 1037 Zettajoules equals ~0.40K then 1K equals approximately 2592.5 Zettajoules or 2600 Zettajoules per K. This agrees with Eschenbach.

I'll let you work through the rest. Tell us how much he is out. Wink

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Robot
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Re: Evidence for global warming.
Reply #188 - Jun 13th, 2019 at 4:52pm
 
lee wrote on Jun 13th, 2019 at 3:47pm:
But back to the paper.

"2.6 scenario, the models project an ocean warming (0 to 2000 m) of 1037 zettajoules
(ZJ) (~0.40 K) at the end of the 21st century (mean of 2081–2100 relative to 1991–2005)"

So if 1037 Zettajoules equals ~0.40K then 1K equals approximately 2592.5 Zettajoules or 2600 Zettajoules per K. This agrees with Eschenbach.


I'm shocked--you finally refer to the paper.

You seem to have forgotten the point you were trying to make:

lee wrote on Mar 29th, 2019 at 6:10pm:
Further in Hausfathers paper they say that they knew the ocean heat at 2Km to within +/- 95 zettajoules (+/-0.4C) in 1955 and in 2018 to within +/- 9 zettajoules (0.003C) Three one thousandth of a degree. Grin Grin Grin Grin


i.e. you Willis Eschenbach is incredulous that the uncertainty ranges are correct.

...and you agree with this "citizen scientist's" critique, because...your BS detector didn't go off?

Yeah right. Grin
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lee
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Re: Evidence for global warming.
Reply #189 - Jun 13th, 2019 at 6:44pm
 
Robot wrote on Jun 13th, 2019 at 4:52pm:
i.e. you Willis Eschenbach is incredulous that the uncertainty ranges are correct.

...and you agree with this "citizen scientist's" critique, because...your BS detector didn't go off?


Perhaps you can find a peer reviewed article from 1955 that confirms your belief. or alternatively  just look at the modelled data to find out.

So what technology did they have for 2000m below sea surface temperatures back then? Submarine sensors in the engine room pipes?

BTW - BT's had a depth range of about 295m and XBT's, which came before Argo buoys and were still used up to 2013, had a depth range of  between 460m and 1830m. So no 2000m data there.

Also BTW -Robot wrote on Jun 12th, 2019 at 7:51pm:
Willis Eschenbach has "no credentials in any scientific field".



Quoting Desmogblog? A blog? as a source?  Grin Grin Grin Grin

But perhaps that is why he has written for Nature among others. Wink

"Page 9
Publications, Patent, and Papers

2006
“Problems with publishing scientific information on the web: how unusual were
temperatures in Svalbard, Norway?”, Energy and Environment magazine, 1/2007.

2004
“Global Warming Not the Cause of Lake Tanganyika Decline”, Nature magazine, 7/2004.

2004
“Tuvalu Not Experiencing Increased Sea Level Rise”, Energy and Environment magazine, Vol. 15, No. 3, 2004."

https://www.dropbox.com/s/uqnhc0aw562k79j/Willis_Eschenbach_CV.doc?dl=0

Edit: A copy of problems with the xbt's -

https://apps.dtic.mil/dtic/tr/fulltext/u2/a092954.pdf
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« Last Edit: Jun 13th, 2019 at 7:02pm by lee »  
 
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Robot
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Re: Evidence for global warming.
Reply #190 - Jun 13th, 2019 at 8:54pm
 
lee wrote on Jun 13th, 2019 at 6:44pm:
Robot wrote on Jun 13th, 2019 at 4:52pm:
i.e. you Willis Eschenbach is incredulous that the uncertainty ranges are correct.

...and you agree with this "citizen scientist's" critique, because...your BS detector didn't go off?


Perhaps you can find a peer reviewed article from 1955 that confirms your belief. or alternatively  just look at the modelled data to find out.


You should be taking your own advice. Wink


lee wrote on Jun 13th, 2019 at 6:44pm:
Also BTW -Robot wrote on Jun 12th, 2019 at 7:51pm:
Willis Eschenbach has "no credentials in any scientific field".



Quoting Desmogblog? A blog? as a source?  Grin Grin Grin Grin

But perhaps that is why he has written for Nature among others. Wink

"Page 9
Publications, Patent, and Papers

2006
“Problems with publishing scientific information on the web: how unusual were
temperatures in Svalbard, Norway?”, Energy and Environment magazine, 1/2007.

2004
“Global Warming Not the Cause of Lake Tanganyika Decline”, Nature magazine, 7/2004.

2004
“Tuvalu Not Experiencing Increased Sea Level Rise”, Energy and Environment magazine, Vol. 15, No. 3, 2004."

https://www.dropbox.com/s/uqnhc0aw562k79j/Willis_Eschenbach_CV.doc?dl=0

Edit: A copy of problems with the xbt's -

https://apps.dtic.mil/dtic/tr/fulltext/u2/a092954.pdf


That's really good. Thanks.

Willis Eschenbach has a long CV, but there's no scientific credentials on there, and no jobs doing science.

His "paper" in Nature is not a paper; it's a comment on a paper, and that didn't even appear in print.

Climate-change effect on Lake Tanganyika?
https://www.nature.com/articles/nature02689?proof=true&platform=oscar&draft=journal
https://sci-hub.tw/https://www.nature.com/articles/nature02689

(The editor must've changed the title, because he puts a different one on his CV.)

But hey, that's a damned-good accomplishment for a hobbyist.

As for Energy and Environment magazine: LOL
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lee
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Re: Evidence for global warming.
Reply #191 - Jun 13th, 2019 at 9:35pm
 
Robot wrote on Jun 13th, 2019 at 8:54pm:
You should be taking your own advice.


But I keep giving you information. information you ca't absorb. Grin Grin Grin

Robot wrote on Jun 13th, 2019 at 8:54pm:
But hey, that's a damned-good accomplishment for a hobbyist.



And much better than you petal. All your objections down the drain.

Metrics not mentioned - wrong.

Wrong metrics - wrong

And that's after you "read" the paper. And having all the data you can't even try to refute it. Grin Grin Grin Grin Grin Grin Grin

Remember you are the one saying he is wrong. Prove it. Wink

Perhaps you can show the observations going back to 1955 to 2000m. Wink

I have looked. i can't find it. I suspect it is a reanalysis that then becomes "data". Wink
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Re: Evidence for global warming.
Reply #192 - Jun 13th, 2019 at 11:04pm
 
lee wrote on Jun 13th, 2019 at 9:35pm:
Remember you are the one saying he is wrong.


If you review the thread, you'll see that's not what I'm saying at all.

Rather, the point is that a blog article by a hobbyist ("citizen scientist") just isn't worth looking at.

The only quality control you exercise with respect to your sources seems to be this:

lee wrote on Jun 11th, 2019 at 10:08pm:
Because I read, I comprehend, I think. There are many things I am not qualified to comment on. But there are many I am.


You just don't have the toolset.
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Re: Evidence for global warming.
Reply #193 - Jun 14th, 2019 at 11:48am
 
Robot wrote on Jun 13th, 2019 at 11:04pm:
Rather, the point is that a blog article by a hobbyist ("citizen scientist") just isn't worth looking at.


Because you disagree with the numbers? Oh that's right you found it too difficult to check.

Because you like your "appeals to Authority"?  Grin Grin Grin

You seem to be one of those people who believe in the Gamblers Fallacy.

If you take a number of temperature readings with a thermometer that has accuracy of +/-0.5C, the accuracy doesn't improve for the averaged product. The accuracy stays the same, +/-0.5C.

Like the Sea Level Rise using the Jason satellite series. They have an accuracy of 3.3cm or 33mm. Yet claim they can tell the SLR to within 0.1mm.

And all that with an earth that is ellipsoid, subject to tidal influence, waves, storm surge among others. And they can tell SLR down to the merest windblown ripple. Grin Grin Grin Grin

Robot wrote on Jun 13th, 2019 at 11:04pm:
You just don't have the toolset.



Who needs it when the "tool" is you? Wink
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Re: Evidence for global warming.
Reply #194 - Jun 14th, 2019 at 12:51pm
 
lee wrote on Jun 11th, 2019 at 3:06pm:
Johnnie wrote on Jun 11th, 2019 at 2:34pm:
How did they arrive at the data, digital thermo meters.


You can't homogenise temperatures in a remote location with a local thermometer.

It is called statistical manipulation. Grin Grin Grin Grin Grin

Heck, You can't even get a thermometer to read yesterday's temperature; let alone from years ago.

Not one, but thousands of thermometers are used and if any irregularities in one given area doesn't line up with the surrounding thermo meters in a given way then that thermometer would be replaced.

No statistical manipulation by the weatherman.
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