Australian Politics Forum - Hottest summer on record in OZ

Johnnie

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Re: Hottest summer on record in OZ
Reply #30 - Mar 6^th, 2019 at 6:34pm

lee wrote on Mar 6^th, 2019 at 3:48pm:

More -

"From 1910 to 1963, ACORN 2 reduces the number of 37.8C+ days in ACORN 1 by 12.5% and reduces the number of 37.8c+ days in RAW by 19.9%. From 1964 to 2017, ACORN 2 reduces the number of 37.8c+ days in ACORN 1 by 5.8% and reduces the number of 37.8c+ days in RAW by 4.0% The averaged temperature of days at 37.8C or more didn't change in ACORN 1, increased 0.1C in ACORN 2 and increased 0.2C in RAW (download all 57 stations Excel).

http://www.waclimate.net/acorn2/imgs/century.gif

The hottest day among the 57 stations in ACORN 2 was Carnarvon at 51.0C on 23 January 1953, which would officially be the hottest day ever recorded in Australia (vs Oodnadatta Airport at 50.7C on 2 January 1960 - source). In the ACORN 1 dataset, 23 January 1953 at Carnarvon was 48.5C. In RAW it was 47.7C. ACORN 1 lists Albany at 51.2C on 8 February 1933 but ACORN 2 cools this day to 49.5C (RAW 44.8C)."

http://www.waclimate.net/acorn2/index.html

Well going on those stats and the graph above you are finally starting to come around, good work.

The alarm bells certainly are ringing as 97% of climate scientists would agree.

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lee

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Re: Hottest summer on record in OZ
Reply #31 - Mar 6^th, 2019 at 6:59pm

Johnnie wrote on Mar 6^th, 2019 at 6:34pm:

Well going on those stats and the graph above you are finally starting to come around, good work

Yes The raw data indicates the real number of early year hot days.

ACORN1 reduced them by 5,000 and ACORN2 by a further 7.000. but I am puzzled how they arrived at that. Ouija board perhaps?

Johnnie wrote on Mar 6^th, 2019 at 6:34pm:

The alarm bells certainly are ringing as 97% of climate scientists would agree.

Which 97% of climate scientists would that be petal? Cook et al 2013? Grin

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Johnnie

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Re: Hottest summer on record in OZ
Reply #32 - Mar 6^th, 2019 at 7:23pm

lee wrote on Mar 6^th, 2019 at 6:59pm:

Johnnie wrote on Mar 6^th, 2019 at 6:34pm:

Well going on those stats and the graph above you are finally starting to come around, good work

Yes The raw data indicates the real number of early year hot days.

ACORN1 reduced them by 5,000 and ACORN2 by a further 7.000. but I am puzzled how they arrived at that. Ouija board perhaps?

Johnnie wrote on Mar 6^th, 2019 at 6:34pm:

The alarm bells certainly are ringing as 97% of climate scientists would agree.

Which 97% of climate scientists would that be petal? Cook et al 2013? Grin

The 97% that agree that rapid climate change is because of us.

If I was a petal I would have been burnt to a crisp after this, the hottest summer in OZ.

My good old plum tree looks as though it has taken a major hit, I don't think it is going to make it.

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lee

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Re: Hottest summer on record in OZ
Reply #33 - Mar 6^th, 2019 at 8:43pm

Johnnie wrote on Mar 6^th, 2019 at 7:23pm:

The 97% that agree that rapid climate change is because of us.

"We analyze the evolution of the scientific consensus on anthropogenic global warming (AGW) in the peer-reviewed scientific literature, examining 11 944 climate abstracts from 1991–2011 matching the topics 'global climate change' or 'global warming'. We find that 66.4% of abstracts expressed no position on AGW, 32.6% endorsed AGW, 0.7% rejected AGW and 0.3% were uncertain about the cause of global warming. Among abstracts expressing a position on AGW, 97.1% endorsed the consensus position that humans are causing global warming. "

https://iopscience.iop.org/article/10.1088/1748-9326/8/2/024024

This is from the vaunted Cook et al paper.
So 97.1% of climate papers that expressed an opinion, 32.6% and 0.7%, or 33.3% held an opinion. And seeing as climate papers have more than one author even less "climate scientists". Remember climate papers not climate scientists. And 97.1% of 33.3% is definitely not 97% of climate scientists.

Oh and the climate scientists that said climate change was mostly human driven? 0.3%.

The full details are available at

https://iopscience.iop.org/1748-9326/8/2/024024/media/erl460291datafile.txt

Note endosement 1.

The ratings - skepticalscience.com/docs/self_vs_abstracts_private.txt

The endorsemens are at column 3.

Should you wish to do it all yourself. Enjoy.

Johnnie wrote on Mar 6^th, 2019 at 7:23pm:

My good old plum tree looks as though it has taken a major hit, I don't think it is going to make it.

And fruit trees last forever. Grin

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Frank

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Re: Hottest summer on record in OZ
Reply #34 - Mar 6^th, 2019 at 9:09pm

Thank you for spelling out the utter dishonesty of the 'AGW is 97% endorsed' load of BS. It is indeed 97% of the one third of scientists who did take a position on the causes of climate change.

NB - only one third took a position on he causes of it. And it was 97% OF THOSE who sided with AGW. A SCIENTIFIC MINORITY by a robust margin.

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Bobby. Moderator Offline Australian Politics Posts: 122093 Melbourne Gender:	Re: Hottest summer on record in OZ Reply #35 - Mar 7^th, 2019 at 5:17am We did have a hot summer. I think it's over now. Temperatures were single digits overnight: http://www.bom.gov.au/vic/observations/melbourne.shtml
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Pho Huc Gold Member Offline Australian Politics Posts: 985 Victoria Gender:	Re: Hottest summer on record in OZ Reply #36 - Mar 7^th, 2019 at 1:18pm .7% rejected AGW.
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lee

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Re: Hottest summer on record in OZ
Reply #37 - Mar 7^th, 2019 at 2:29pm

Pho Huc wrote on Mar 7^th, 2019 at 1:18pm:

.7% rejected AGW.

very good. You can read. So now you know 0.7% of ABSTRACTS not climate scientists rejected AGW.

32.6% of abstracts endorsed AGW at some level. 0.3% of abstracts had the opinion that AGW was more than 50% caused by humans.

Personally I agree there may well be some AGW, the science says so. How much has not been quantified.

To quantify you need to know two of three parameters. The parameters are Natural CO2 emissions, Himan caused CO2 emissions and Total CO2 emissions. With any two you can work out the third. You can't work it out from one parameter only.

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DonDeeHippy

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Re: Hottest summer on record in OZ
Reply #38 - Mar 7^th, 2019 at 3:10pm

Bobby. wrote on Mar 7^th, 2019 at 5:17am:

We did have a hot summer.
I think it's over now.
Temperatures were single digits overnight:

http://www.bom.gov.au/vic/observations/melbourne.shtml

yup time for a hot autumn, yesterday it was so hot and muggy I drank a full water bottle (5 litres) and one pee at the end of the day, maybe Melbourne is cooling down at night but its still repressively hot in QLD. Wink

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Bobby.

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Re: Hottest summer on record in OZ
Reply #39 - Mar 7^th, 2019 at 3:22pm

DonDeeHippy wrote on Mar 7^th, 2019 at 3:10pm:

Bobby. wrote on Mar 7^th, 2019 at 5:17am:

We did have a hot summer.
I think it's over now.
Temperatures were single digits overnight:

http://www.bom.gov.au/vic/observations/melbourne.shtml

yup time for a hot autumn, yesterday it was so hot and muggy I drank a full water bottle (5 litres) and one pee at the end of the day, maybe Melbourne is cooling down at night but its still repressively hot in QLD. Wink

Melbourne is lovely and cool at night - single digit temps -
and warm days.
It's perfect weather but I'm worried about a drought.
It's been so dry.

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lee

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Re: Hottest summer on record in OZ
Reply #40 - Mar 7^th, 2019 at 3:33pm

DonDeeHippy wrote on Mar 7^th, 2019 at 3:10pm:

yup time for a hot autumn, yesterday it was so hot and muggy I drank a full water bottle (5 litres) and one pee at the end of the day, maybe Melbourne is cooling down at night but its still repressively hot in QLD.

And it has never been like that in Queensland in Autumn before. Grin

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DonDeeHippy

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Re: Hottest summer on record in OZ
Reply #41 - Mar 7^th, 2019 at 3:50pm

lee wrote on Mar 7^th, 2019 at 3:33pm:

DonDeeHippy wrote on Mar 7^th, 2019 at 3:10pm:

yup time for a hot autumn, yesterday it was so hot and muggy I drank a full water bottle (5 litres) and one pee at the end of the day, maybe Melbourne is cooling down at night but its still repressively hot in QLD.

And it has never been like that in Queensland in Autumn before. Grin

nope.. never and too hot to argue Grin

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