Australian Politics Forum - Hottest summer on record in OZ

The_Barnacle

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Re: Hottest summer on record in OZ
Reply #15 - Mar 3^rd, 2019 at 10:31am

DonDeeHippy wrote on Mar 3^rd, 2019 at 5:36am:

So Lee did Acorn2 lower the previous highest temperature of Summer ? I know you have pointed out some Darwin temperatures they have lowered in the 20's.
Are we only having the hottest ever Summer because of historic temperatures being lowered or is this Summer legit in being the hottest ? Wink

That's the MO of the deniers.
Cherry pick one weather station out of the 1000 that the BOM have, misrepresent the statistics for a few years of the 100 years of observations and then imply that this shows the BOM are being fraudulent.

Sorry but i believe actual scientists rather than politically motivated keyboard warriors like lee

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Captain Nemo

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Re: Hottest summer on record in OZ
Reply #16 - Mar 3^rd, 2019 at 11:28am

The_Barnacle wrote on Mar 3^rd, 2019 at 10:31am:

DonDeeHippy wrote on Mar 3^rd, 2019 at 5:36am:

So Lee did Acorn2 lower the previous highest temperature of Summer ? I know you have pointed out some Darwin temperatures they have lowered in the 20's.
Are we only having the hottest ever Summer because of historic temperatures being lowered or is this Summer legit in being the hottest ? Wink

That's the MO of the deniers.
Cherry pick one weather station out of the 1000 that the BOM have, misrepresent the statistics for a few years of the 100 years of observations and then imply that this shows the BOM are being fraudulent.

Sorry but i believe actual scientists rather than politically motivated keyboard warriors like lee

Well said sir! Cool

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Fire the LIAR in 2028!

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lee

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Re: Hottest summer on record in OZ
Reply #17 - Mar 3^rd, 2019 at 12:19pm

DonDeeHippy wrote on Mar 3^rd, 2019 at 5:36am:

So Lee did Acorn2 lower the previous highest temperature of Summer ? I know you have pointed out some Darwin temperatures they have lowered in the 20's.
Are we only having the hottest ever Summer because of historic temperatures being lowered or is this Summer legit in being the hottest ? Wink

You can look at the data available from BoM and make up your own mind. Having changed the "data" it then becomes part of their Summer temperatures "data".

What makes you think Darwin is the only one?

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lee

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Re: Hottest summer on record in OZ
Reply #18 - Mar 3^rd, 2019 at 12:24pm

The_Barnacle wrote on Mar 3^rd, 2019 at 10:31am:

Cherry pick one weather station out of the 1000 that the BOM have, misrepresent the statistics for a few years of the 100 years of observations and then imply that this shows the BOM are being fraudulent.

Only 112 in ACORN.

So you have checked the other 111 stations and say with great certainty that they haven't been similarly affected? Grin

The_Barnacle wrote on Mar 3^rd, 2019 at 10:31am:

Sorry but i believe actual scientists rather than politically motivated keyboard warriors like lee

You do know the homogenisation is done on computer? That makes them the true keyboard warriors. Grin

"The Forum noted that the extent to which the development of the ACORN-SAT dataset from the raw data could be automated was likely to be limited, and that the process might better be described as a supervised process in which the roles of metadata and other information required some level of expertise and operator intervention. The Forum investigated the nature of the operator intervention required and the bases on which such decisions are made and concluded that very detailed instructions from the Bureau are likely to be necessary for an end-user who wishes to reproduce the ACORN-SAT findings. Some such details are provided in Centre for Australian Weather and Climate Research (CAWCR) technical reports (e.g. use of 40 bestcorrelated sites for adjustments, thresholds for adjustment, and so on); however, the Forum concluded that it is likely to remain the case that several choices within the adjustment process remain a matter of expert judgment and appropriate disciplinary knowledge."

http://www.bom.gov.au/climate/change/acorn-sat/documents/2015_TAF_report.pdf

Expert judgement means it can't be replicated. If it can't be replicated it can't be science.

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« Last Edit: Mar 3^rd, 2019 at 12:41pm by lee »

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DonDeeHippy

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Re: Hottest summer on record in OZ
Reply #19 - Mar 3^rd, 2019 at 5:02pm

lee wrote on Mar 3^rd, 2019 at 12:19pm:

DonDeeHippy wrote on Mar 3^rd, 2019 at 5:36am:

So Lee did Acorn2 lower the previous highest temperature of Summer ? I know you have pointed out some Darwin temperatures they have lowered in the 20's.
Are we only having the hottest ever Summer because of historic temperatures being lowered or is this Summer legit in being the hottest ? Wink

You can look at the data available from BoM and make up your own mind. Having changed the "data" it then becomes part of their Summer temperatures "data".

What makes you think Darwin is the only one?

Well it is you Lee that is casting doubt on the report about the hottest summer... doing that I thought you had checked.... So your just make sweeping unreliable statements and the rest of us can see if its right ? :
Again, has the new data model changed maximum temperature's to make this the Hottest summer, or is it really the hottest summer... Or would you rather just cast doubt that it might be different with Acorn2.....(so we can all ignore that its the hottest summer) Wink

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lee

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Re: Hottest summer on record in OZ
Reply #20 - Mar 3^rd, 2019 at 5:14pm

DonDeeHippy wrote on Mar 3^rd, 2019 at 5:02pm:

Well it is you Lee that is casting doubt on the report about the hottest summer... doing that I thought you had checked....

Well the evidence is that BoM has changed the algorithm. I doubt they only did it for one. Wink

DonDeeHippy wrote on Mar 3^rd, 2019 at 5:02pm:

. So your just make sweeping unreliable statements and the rest of us can see if its right ? :

You can check the data if you wish. BoM has said they are now using ACORN2, at least one has apparentlybeen changed. perhaps you can tell us why they changed Darwin when there were no adds, moves or changes?

DonDeeHippy wrote on Mar 3^rd, 2019 at 5:02pm:

Again, has the new data model changed maximum temperature's to make this the Hottest summer, or is it really the hottest summer.

How can anyone be sure? Wink

DonDeeHippy wrote on Mar 3^rd, 2019 at 5:02pm:

Or would you rather just cast doubt that it might be different with Acorn2.....(so we can all ignore that its the hottest summer)

We know ACORN2 data is changed in at least one instance. I doubt they would have gone to the expense of developing ACORN2, merely to change just one station. That would imply incompetence, Wink

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DonDeeHippy

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Re: Hottest summer on record in OZ
Reply #21 - Mar 3^rd, 2019 at 6:02pm

lee wrote on Mar 3^rd, 2019 at 5:14pm:

DonDeeHippy wrote on Mar 3^rd, 2019 at 5:02pm:

Well it is you Lee that is casting doubt on the report about the hottest summer... doing that I thought you had checked....

Well the evidence is that BoM has changed the algorithm. I doubt they only did it for one. Wink

DonDeeHippy wrote on Mar 3^rd, 2019 at 5:02pm:

. So your just make sweeping unreliable statements and the rest of us can see if its right ? :

You can check the data if you wish. BoM has said they are now using ACORN2, at least one has apparentlybeen changed. perhaps you can tell us why they changed Darwin when there were no adds, moves or changes?

DonDeeHippy wrote on Mar 3^rd, 2019 at 5:02pm:

Again, has the new data model changed maximum temperature's to make this the Hottest summer, or is it really the hottest summer.

How can anyone be sure? Wink

DonDeeHippy wrote on Mar 3^rd, 2019 at 5:02pm:

Or would you rather just cast doubt that it might be different with Acorn2.....(so we can all ignore that its the hottest summer)

We know ACORN2 data is changed in at least one instance. I doubt they would have gone to the expense of developing ACORN2, merely to change just one station. That would imply incompetence, Wink

ahh so your saying u don't know if its the hottest summer but your going to cast doubt just in case, got it Wink

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lee

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Re: Hottest summer on record in OZ
Reply #22 - Mar 3^rd, 2019 at 6:13pm

DonDeeHippy wrote on Mar 3^rd, 2019 at 6:02pm:

ahh so your saying u don't know if its the hottest summer but your going to cast doubt just in case, got it

Based on what is known from BoM's adjustments.

lee wrote on Mar 3^rd, 2019 at 5:14pm:

BoM has said they are now using ACORN2, at least one has apparentlybeen changed. perhaps you can tell us why they changed Darwin when there were no adds, moves or changes?

You didn't answer why BoM changed Darwin given that there are no adds, moves or changes to the station. Wink

You must have a pet theory.

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The_Barnacle

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Re: Hottest summer on record in OZ
Reply #23 - Mar 6^th, 2019 at 9:52am

DonDeeHippy wrote on Mar 3^rd, 2019 at 6:02pm:

lee wrote on Mar 3^rd, 2019 at 5:14pm:

DonDeeHippy wrote on Mar 3^rd, 2019 at 5:02pm:

Well it is you Lee that is casting doubt on the report about the hottest summer... doing that I thought you had checked....

Well the evidence is that BoM has changed the algorithm. I doubt they only did it for one. Wink

DonDeeHippy wrote on Mar 3^rd, 2019 at 5:02pm:

. So your just make sweeping unreliable statements and the rest of us can see if its right ? :

You can check the data if you wish. BoM has said they are now using ACORN2, at least one has apparentlybeen changed. perhaps you can tell us why they changed Darwin when there were no adds, moves or changes?

DonDeeHippy wrote on Mar 3^rd, 2019 at 5:02pm:

Again, has the new data model changed maximum temperature's to make this the Hottest summer, or is it really the hottest summer.

How can anyone be sure? Wink

DonDeeHippy wrote on Mar 3^rd, 2019 at 5:02pm:

Or would you rather just cast doubt that it might be different with Acorn2.....(so we can all ignore that its the hottest summer)

We know ACORN2 data is changed in at least one instance. I doubt they would have gone to the expense of developing ACORN2, merely to change just one station. That would imply incompetence, Wink

ahh so your saying u don't know if its the hottest summer but your going to cast doubt just in case, got it Wink

That's all lee ever does

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Pho Huc Gold Member Offline Australian Politics Posts: 985 Victoria Gender:	Re: Hottest summer on record in OZ Reply #24 - Mar 6^th, 2019 at 11:06am can confirm lee just obfuscates. 2018 hottest year on record, 2019 has so far set 40 record highs and two record lows (Globally)
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Jasin Gold Member Offline Posts: 58119 Gender:	Re: Hottest summer on record in OZ Reply #25 - Mar 6^th, 2019 at 12:03pm I dunno. This summer looked the hottest to me, so far.
Back to top	90e49022d3fee11bf0b629733a3dc5b1.jpg (127 KB \| 18 ) AIMLESS EXTENTION OF KNOWLEDGE HOWEVER, WHICH IS WHAT I THINK YOU REALLY MEAN BY THE TERM 'CURIOSITY', IS MERELY INEFFICIENCY. I AM DESIGNED TO AVOID INEFFICIENCY. IP Logged

lee

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Re: Hottest summer on record in OZ
Reply #26 - Mar 6^th, 2019 at 1:06pm

Pho Huc wrote on Mar 6^th, 2019 at 11:06am:

can confirm lee just obfuscates. 2018 hottest year on record, 2019 has so far set 40 record highs and two record lows (Globally)

2018 was the hottest year on record where?

According to BoM it was the third warmist in Australia.

According to NOAA globally it was the fourth warmest globally.

Do you just make these things up as you go along?

Those 2 record lows globally; I think it is time for you to check.

"The dangerously cold weather is still setting low-temperature records in many Iowa communities."

https://www.usnews.com/news/best-states/minnesota/articles/2019-01-31/the-latest...

"many" seems to indicate more than two, and that is just one US state.i

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« Last Edit: Mar 6^th, 2019 at 1:17pm by lee »

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lee Gold Member Online Australian Politics Posts: 21550 Gender:	Re: Hottest summer on record in OZ Reply #27 - Mar 6^th, 2019 at 1:15pm The_Barnacle wrote on Mar 6^th, 2019 at 9:52am: That's all lee ever does Poor barney. Trolling again. I see you haven't come up with a logical argument for Darwin's Temperature record being upscaled again despite there being no adds. moves and changes since 2012. Classic troll.
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lee Gold Member Online Australian Politics Posts: 21550 Gender:	Re: Hottest summer on record in OZ Reply #28 - Mar 6^th, 2019 at 1:46pm It appeard Rutherglen Victoria has also had the adjustemnt screws put to it in ACORN2.
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lee

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Re: Hottest summer on record in OZ
Reply #29 - Mar 6^th, 2019 at 3:48pm

More -

"From 1910 to 1963, ACORN 2 reduces the number of 37.8C+ days in ACORN 1 by 12.5% and reduces the number of 37.8c+ days in RAW by 19.9%. From 1964 to 2017, ACORN 2 reduces the number of 37.8c+ days in ACORN 1 by 5.8% and reduces the number of 37.8c+ days in RAW by 4.0% The averaged temperature of days at 37.8C or more didn't change in ACORN 1, increased 0.1C in ACORN 2 and increased 0.2C in RAW (download all 57 stations Excel).

The hottest day among the 57 stations in ACORN 2 was Carnarvon at 51.0C on 23 January 1953, which would officially be the hottest day ever recorded in Australia (vs Oodnadatta Airport at 50.7C on 2 January 1960 - source). In the ACORN 1 dataset, 23 January 1953 at Carnarvon was 48.5C. In RAW it was 47.7C. ACORN 1 lists Albany at 51.2C on 8 February 1933 but ACORN 2 cools this day to 49.5C (RAW 44.8C)."

http://www.waclimate.net/acorn2/index.html

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