Bam wrote on Nov 6
th, 2018 at 12:21pm:
Dutton only survived referral to the High Court by one vote when Turnbull was still an MP.
If the same vote was taken again, Dutton would probably be referred. And once one Lib goes, others will follow because the Coalition would no longer have the numbers to protect them.
Morrison may not have any choice over the timing of the next election. If he loses control of the House, he no longer has the numbers to govern. He would have to call an election, resign his commission or face dismissal. He could also dodge the issue by proroguing Parliament with the summer break imminent.
Dutton survived by 1 vote + Katter who didn't bother turning up for the vote. Otherwise it would have been a 2 vote margin. I would think it pretty unlikely Katter would miss another such vote.
On this and any other matter, Katter will have Morrison's back, and thats all he needs. The libs will obviously move heaven and earth to ensure that Katter is present for any vote. And thats the absolute worst case scenario - since on matters of confidence and supply, at the very least McGowan has given a pretty ironclad assurance of her support, and others including Phelps are pretty much on the same page. The only crossbench votes labor can realistically rely on are Wilkie and Bandt. Everyone else on the cross bench have made it abundantly clear they won't be doing anything to trigger an election before its due. People are getting excited about the prospect of the government losing a confidence vote, but the truth is, its a complete media beat up. Short of some spectacular implosion within the coalition, there is precisely zero chance of this government losing the confidence of the house before the next election for several reasons - not least of all the fact that there are bugger all actual sitting weeks left before the next election is due.
Chilax everyone, this government still has a minimum of 6 months to go. Unfortunately.
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