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Another paper - The hiatus is real. (Read 647 times)
lee
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Another paper - The hiatus is real.
Aug 26th, 2018 at 1:50pm
 
Quote:
The slowdown in global warming since 1998, often termed the global warming hiatus. Reconciling the “hiatus” is a main focus in the 2013 climate change conference. Accurately characterizing the spatiotemporal trends in surface air temperature (SAT) is helps to better understand the “hiatus” during the period. This article presents a satellite-based regional warming simulation to diagnose the “hiatus” for 2001–2015 in China. Results show that the rapid warming is mainly in western and southern China, such as Yunnan (mean ± standard deviation: 0.39 ± 0.26 °C (10 yr)−1), Tibet (0.22 ± 0.25 °C (10 yr)−1), Taiwan (0.21 ± 0.25 °C (10 yr)−1), and Sichuan (0.19 ± 0.25 °C (10 yr)−1). On the contrary, there is a cooling trend by 0.29 ± 0.26 °C (10 yr)−1 in northern China during the recent 15 yr, where a warming rate about 0.38 ± 0.11 °C (10 yr)−1 happened for 1960–2000. Overall, satellite simulation shows that the warming rate is reduced to −0.02 °C (10 yr)−1. The changes in underlying surface, Earth's orbit, solar radiation and atmospheric counter radiation (USEOSRACR) cause China's temperature rise about 0.02 °C (10 yr)−1. A combination of greenhouse gases (GHGs) and other natural forcing (ONAT, predominately volcanic activity, and atmosphere and ocean circulation) explain another part of temperature trend by approximately −0.04 °C (10 yr)−1. We conclude that there is a regional warming hiatus, a pause or a slowdown in China, and imply that GHGs-induced warming is suppressed by ONAT in the early 21st century.

Graphical abstract

https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0048969718331978

And all that with burgeoning CO2 levels. With China leading the way.
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Bobby.
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Re: Another paper - The hiatus is real.
Reply #1 - Aug 26th, 2018 at 8:19pm
 
Hi Lee,
there are so many acronyms there that I'm finding it hard to follow.

ONAT?

Anyway - it proves that global warming has stopped.
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lee
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Re: Another paper - The hiatus is real.
Reply #2 - Aug 26th, 2018 at 9:48pm
 
Don't know exactly. But looking at the parentheses -

" and other natural forcing (ONAT, predominately volcanic activity, and atmosphere and ocean circulation) "

So it seems that other natural forcings are suppressing GHG induced warming; in China at least.

But being a magical molecule perhaps it can mean different things in different regions.
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Bobby.
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Re: Another paper - The hiatus is real.
Reply #3 - Aug 26th, 2018 at 11:59pm
 
lee wrote on Aug 26th, 2018 at 9:48pm:
Don't know exactly. But looking at the parentheses -

" and other natural forcing (ONAT, predominately volcanic activity, and atmosphere and ocean circulation) "

So it seems that other natural forcings are suppressing GHG induced warming; in China at least.

But being a magical molecule perhaps it can mean different things in different regions.



The greatest greenhouse gas is ordinary water vapor -
not CO2.
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DonDeeHippy
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Re: Another paper - The hiatus is real.
Reply #4 - Aug 27th, 2018 at 5:20am
 
lee wrote on Aug 26th, 2018 at 1:50pm:
Quote:
The slowdown in global warming since 1998, often termed the global warming hiatus. Reconciling the “hiatus” is a main focus in the 2013 climate change conference. Accurately characterizing the spatiotemporal trends in surface air temperature (SAT) is helps to better understand the “hiatus” during the period. This article presents a satellite-based regional warming simulation to diagnose the “hiatus” for 2001–2015 in China. Results show that the rapid warming is mainly in western and southern China, such as Yunnan (mean ± standard deviation: 0.39 ± 0.26 °C (10 yr)−1), Tibet (0.22 ± 0.25 °C (10 yr)−1), Taiwan (0.21 ± 0.25 °C (10 yr)−1), and Sichuan (0.19 ± 0.25 °C (10 yr)−1). On the contrary, there is a cooling trend by 0.29 ± 0.26 °C (10 yr)−1 in northern China during the recent 15 yr, where a warming rate about 0.38 ± 0.11 °C (10 yr)−1 happened for 1960–2000. Overall, satellite simulation shows that the warming rate is reduced to −0.02 °C (10 yr)−1. The changes in underlying surface, Earth's orbit, solar radiation and atmospheric counter radiation (USEOSRACR) cause China's temperature rise about 0.02 °C (10 yr)−1. A combination of greenhouse gases (GHGs) and other natural forcing (ONAT, predominately volcanic activity, and atmosphere and ocean circulation) explain another part of temperature trend by approximately −0.04 °C (10 yr)−1. We conclude that there is a regional warming hiatus, a pause or a slowdown in China, and imply that GHGs-induced warming is suppressed by ONAT in the early 21st century.

Graphical abstract

https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0048969718331978

And all that with burgeoning CO2 levels. With China leading the way.

yes only trust these if it agrees with your worldview........
other wise no simulation is worth anything  Wink Cheesy
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lee
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Re: Another paper - The hiatus is real.
Reply #5 - Aug 27th, 2018 at 1:59pm
 
DonDeeHippy wrote on Aug 27th, 2018 at 5:20am:
yes only trust these if it agrees with your worldview........
other wise no simulation is worth anything



Nope. Perhaps one day you might try science instead of shooting from the lip.

Let's see used satellite "data". The satellite "data" disagrees with the earth station "data".

BTW - did you know global warming began in the 1700's? Before industrialisation? That is before burning of more fossil fuels?

...

I wonder what caused that?
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DonDeeHippy
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Re: Another paper - The hiatus is real.
Reply #6 - Aug 28th, 2018 at 5:27am
 
lee wrote on Aug 27th, 2018 at 1:59pm:
DonDeeHippy wrote on Aug 27th, 2018 at 5:20am:
yes only trust these if it agrees with your worldview........
other wise no simulation is worth anything



Nope. Perhaps one day you might try science instead of shooting from the lip.

Let's see used satellite "data". The satellite "data" disagrees with the earth station "data".

BTW - did you know global warming began in the 1700's? Before industrialisation? That is before burning of more fossil fuels?

https://4k4oijnpiu3l4c3h-zippykid.netdna-ssl.com/wp-content/uploads/2018/08/Spen...

I wonder what caused that?

what model was used to figure our global warming from the 1700's Lee ? Wink
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lee
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Re: Another paper - The hiatus is real.
Reply #7 - Aug 28th, 2018 at 12:16pm
 
DonDeeHippy wrote on Aug 28th, 2018 at 5:27am:
what model was used to figure our global warming from the 1700's Lee ?



You have never heard of CET? And then there is paleo data.

Things like reduced crops due to cold. They used to record those things in those days too. That's how king's would determine how much would be paid by the serfs.

Did you learn nothing at school?
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lee
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Re: Another paper - The hiatus is real.
Reply #8 - Aug 28th, 2018 at 1:45pm
 
BTW - a paper by M Mann et al 2008.

...

Even he agrees.
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