Jovial Monk wrote on Aug 8^th, 2018 at 5:11pm:



New York is under the tundra?Jovial Monk wrote on Aug 8^th, 2018 at 5:11pm:



Just think. IF the tundra thaws that will give us more agricultural land.

"Russian permafrost expert slaps down AGW

In the video a German journalist travels to Siberia and speaks with Russian permafrost expert Michali Grigoryev on the state of the permafrost (2007). Grigoryev shows the journalist a rare baby mammoth uncovered from the ice, and adds that such finds are becoming more and more frequent today. “Because of climate change”, the journalist asks at the 0:48 mark? Grigoryev answers:

    No, you are wrong. The permafrost is not melting. There is no man-made climate change.”

The journalist then quotes the Russian scientist:

   " Indeed above at the surface it has gotten warmer, but that’s just part of a normal cycle. The permafrost is rock hard, And that is how it is going to stay. There’s no talk of thawing.” "

"At the 1:24 mark, the scientist says:

    "The cyclic warming is coming to an end. It is going to get colder soon. The climate depends on the sun and the oceans. Three factors have coincided and have warmed the climate, but in 8 to 15 years, it’s going to be colder again.” "


http://notrickszone.com/2012/11/19/russian-arctic-scientist-permafrost-changes-d...

Gee those Russian scientists must be real dumb. You better write to them quick and point out the error of their ways.

Jovial Monk wrote on Aug 8^th, 2018 at 5:49pm:



So did you read up on Michali Grigoryev? Or just decide to shoot the messenger.

I read you scientific sources where they claim 3mm SLR using satellite altimeters that have an accuracy  of 34mm.

Or perhaps you would like this study? -

"Relative to the past 2,000 years1,2, the Arctic region has warmed significantly over the past few decades. However, the evolution of Arctic temperatures during the rest of the Holocene is less clear. Proxy reconstructions, suggest a long-term cooling trend throughout the mid- to late Holocene3,4,5, whereas climate model simulations show only minor changes or even warming6,7,8. Here we present a record of the oxygen isotope composition of permafrost ice wedges from the Lena River Delta in the Siberian Arctic. The isotope values, which reflect winter season temperatures, became progressively more enriched over the past 7,000 years, reaching unprecedented levels in the past five decades. This warming trend during the mid- to late Holocene is in opposition to the cooling seen in other proxy records3,5,9. However, most of these existing proxy records are biased towards summer temperatures."

https://www.nature.com/articles/ngeo2349

Bugger. only warming for 7,000 years.

Frank wrote on Aug 8^th, 2018 at 6:35pm:



Seeing as there is no data in the paper merely assumption that is correct. They don't even quote any Representative Concentration Pathways (RCP's).

Jovial Monk wrote on Aug 8^th, 2018 at 7:05pm:


yes. So much easier to be confident of your results and conclusions when you don't use data.

So you are uneducated too?

You prefer Nostradamus to scientific prediction?

In one.

Jovial Monk wrote on Aug 8^th, 2018 at 7:54pm:


You ignore the paper on increase in ice mass in Antarctica AGAIN. Permafrost is reported to have been warming for 7,000 years. That is way before AGW.

Jovial Monk wrote on Aug 8^th, 2018 at 7:54pm:



Yes. So you keep saying. Antarctic is not melting. Repetition won't make it so. SLR - based on satellite altimeters with errors 10 times the supposed accelerated rate.



Jovial Monk wrote on Aug 8^th, 2018 at 7:54pm:


you mean like ocean temperatures in zeta-joules?

And yet other scientists disagree with you assessment. Why is that?

Jovial Monk wrote on Aug 8^th, 2018 at 7:54pm:


Here we go off into the wild blue future. Making assumptions most climate scientists refute.

Jovial Monk wrote on Aug 8^th, 2018 at 7:54pm:


No. Just not taking the alarmist approach.

Jovial Monk wrote on Aug 8^th, 2018 at 7:54pm:


A man does not talk up doom and gloom based on nothing more than computer models.

BUT

forecasting climate, ocean heating, polar ice melting etc is difficult:

1. HM La Ninas, El Ninos, ENSO neutral years will there be?

2. What will the PDO, ADO, IDO (Pacific, Atlantic and Indian Ocean Decadal Oscillations) and the Arctic DO do over the forecast period?

3. Pattern of carbon pollution? Aerosols? Volcanic eruptions adding more aerosols? Impossible to predict volcanoes and volcanoes create bits of cooling by sending aerosols to top of atmosphere where they reflect some of the sunlight. What if some countries or a new RE technology was introduced? EVs becoming popular, what about hydrogen etc etc etc

4. The sun—it went a tiny bit quiet in the 1980s, when will it resume normal activity, bumping up the warming a bit? Bit of a wildcard, eh?

Most here would struggle to predict a race on the weekend, how would they go predicting a race to be held in 12 months time? What horses? You are the one predicting the race!