Grendel wrote on Jul 12
th, 2018 at 9:03am:
You may be disappointed whenever it is called.
Considering your bias and hubris one can only hope you are.
Let's look at a few numbers.
Current Parliament:Coalition = 76, Labor = 69, crossbenchers = 5. (150)
Notional seats after redistributions in ACT, Qld, SA and Vic:Coalition = 75, Labor = 71, crossbenchers = 5. (151)
(Changes: Bean (ACT) = new safe Labor seat, Port Adelaide (SA) = Labor seat abolished, Fraser (Vic) = new safe Labor seat, Dunkley (Vic) = Liberal-held seat notionally Labor)
After redistributions, Labor only needs to gain 5 seats to win majority government.Seats after uniform 2.6% swing (Labor 52.3% - Coalition 47.7% - current Pollbludger aggregate)
Coalition = 64, Labor = 82, crossbenchers = 5.
(11 seats changing hands. Does not include the possibility of crossbench gaining additional seats such as Grey (SA) Liberal 1.9% -> Centre Alliance, Macnamara (Vic) Labor 1.2% -> Greens.)Yes, on those numbers LW may be disappointed with only 11 or so seats gained. A win would still be a win.