Australian Politics Forum - New paper on Climate Models

lee

Gold Member

Offline

Australian Politics

Posts: 16428
Gender: male

New paper on Climate Models
May 17^th, 2018 at 2:10pm

Quote:

Reliable climate projections at the regional scale are needed in order to evaluate climate change impacts and inform policy. We develop an alternative method for projections based on the transient climate sensitivity (TCS), which relies on a linear relationship between the forced temperature response and the strongly increasing anthropogenic forcing. The TCS is evaluated at the regional scale (5° by 5°), and projections are made accordingly to 2100 using the high and low Representative Concentration Pathways emission scenarios. We find that there are large spatial discrepancies between the regional TCS from 5 historical data sets and 32 global climate model (GCM) historical runs and furthermore that the global mean GCM TCS is about 15% too high. Given that the GCM Representative Concentration Pathway scenario runs are mostly linear with respect to their (inadequate) TCS, we conclude that historical methods of regional projection are better suited given that they are directly calibrated on the real world (historical) climate.

https://agupubs.onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/abs/10.1002/2017GL076649

Back to top

IP Logged

Grendel Gold Member Offline OzPolitic Posts: 28080 Gender:	Re: New paper on Climate Models Reply #1 - May 17^th, 2018 at 3:19pm Real World Data and not fudges... that seems a much better idea.
Back to top	IP Logged

President Elect, The Mechanic Gold Member Offline Australian Politics Posts: 17501 Gender:	Re: New paper on Climate Models Reply #2 - May 17^th, 2018 at 8:00pm Grendel wrote on May 17^th, 2018 at 3:19pm: Real World Data and not fudges... that seems a much better idea. Bingo! and no one would be talking about global warming, shutting down power stations and sending billions of dollars to an unelected world government...
Back to top	Q The STORM has arrived Every Dog Has Its Day... Dark to Light. Sheep no more. IP Logged

DonDeeHippy

Gold Member

Offline

Cool Stuff

Posts: 2782
Australia
Gender: male

Re: New paper on Climate Models
Reply #3 - May 17^th, 2018 at 8:34pm

President Elect, The Mechanic wrote on May 17^th, 2018 at 8:00pm:

Grendel wrote on May 17^th, 2018 at 3:19pm:

Real World Data and not fudges... that seems a much better idea.

Bingo!

and no one would be talking about global warming, shutting down power stations and sending billions of dollars to an unelected world government... Roll Eyes

That would be true if co2 was the only emission from a power plant Wink

Back to top

I am me

IP Logged

lee Gold Member Offline Australian Politics Posts: 16428 Gender:	Re: New paper on Climate Models Reply #4 - May 17^th, 2018 at 8:40pm DonDeeHippy wrote on May 17^th, 2018 at 8:34pm: That would be true if co2 was the only emission from a power plant What are the other emissions of a modern power plant?
Back to top	IP Logged

DonDeeHippy Gold Member Offline Cool Stuff Posts: 2782 Australia Gender:	Re: New paper on Climate Models Reply #5 - May 17^th, 2018 at 8:44pm lee wrote on May 17^th, 2018 at 8:40pm: DonDeeHippy wrote on May 17^th, 2018 at 8:34pm: That would be true if co2 was the only emission from a power plant What are the other emissions of a modern power plant? Lol how many power plants r modern
Back to top	I am me IP Logged

lee Gold Member Offline Australian Politics Posts: 16428 Gender:	Re: New paper on Climate Models Reply #6 - May 17^th, 2018 at 9:01pm DonDeeHippy wrote on May 17^th, 2018 at 8:44pm: Lol how many power plants r modern You mean the Chinese ones, the Japanese ones? Others?
Back to top	IP Logged

DonDeeHippy Gold Member Offline Cool Stuff Posts: 2782 Australia Gender:	Re: New paper on Climate Models Reply #7 - May 17^th, 2018 at 10:05pm lee wrote on May 17^th, 2018 at 9:01pm: DonDeeHippy wrote on May 17^th, 2018 at 8:44pm: Lol how many power plants r modern You mean the Chinese ones, the Japanese ones? Others? How about Australian ? http://www.news.com.au/news/report-finds-us-china-and-the-eu-have-higher-standar...
Back to top	I am me IP Logged

lee

Gold Member

Offline

Australian Politics

Posts: 16428
Gender: male

Re: New paper on Climate Models
Reply #8 - May 17^th, 2018 at 10:54pm

DonDeeHippy wrote on May 17^th, 2018 at 10:05pm:

How about Australian ?
http://www.news.com.au/news/report-finds-us-china-and-the-eu-have-higher-standar...

You really are a dick. No one said Australia HAS higher standards than China or anywhere else.

But you are straying a long way from the thread title.

Is that because you don't want the quality of the GCM's examined?

Back to top

IP Logged

Bobby. Moderator Offline Australian Politics Posts: 95485 Melbourne Gender:	Re: New paper on Climate Models Reply #9 - May 17^th, 2018 at 11:19pm We've gotta do better than burning stinking coal - we need more renewable energy & also research into the power locked inside Thorium.
Back to top	IP Logged

DonDeeHippy

Gold Member

Offline

Cool Stuff

Posts: 2782
Australia
Gender: male

Re: New paper on Climate Models
Reply #10 - May 17^th, 2018 at 11:30pm

lee wrote on May 17^th, 2018 at 10:54pm:

DonDeeHippy wrote on May 17^th, 2018 at 10:05pm:

How about Australian ?
http://www.news.com.au/news/report-finds-us-china-and-the-eu-have-higher-standar...

You really are a dick. No one said Australia HAS higher standards than China or anywhere else.

But you are straying a long way from the thread title.

Is that because you don't want the quality of the GCM's examined?

There there lee it ok, I sense you’re frustration , I mean forgetting what was said a few posts before must suck....
if only u wouldn’t just quote one line from a post u could keep track.
I said that coal power plants produce other poisonous gases than co2 . If u can remember you have been questioning this and I’ve been answering,
Not my fault u need to resort to insults when u don’t get your way...
maybe try quoting even smaller bits of a post..... it might help Wink

Back to top

I am me

IP Logged

DonDeeHippy Gold Member Offline Cool Stuff Posts: 2782 Australia Gender:	Re: New paper on Climate Models Reply #11 - May 17^th, 2018 at 11:32pm Bobby. wrote on May 17^th, 2018 at 11:19pm: We've gotta do better than burning stinking coal - we need more renewable energy & also research into the power locked inside Thorium. Yeah gen4 nuke might be the answer in 20 -30 years
Back to top	I am me IP Logged

Bobby.

Moderator

Offline

Australian Politics

Posts: 95485
Melbourne
Gender: male

Re: New paper on Climate Models
Reply #12 - May 17^th, 2018 at 11:39pm

DonDeeHippy wrote on May 17^th, 2018 at 11:32pm:

Bobby. wrote on May 17^th, 2018 at 11:19pm:

We've gotta do better than burning stinking coal -
we need more renewable energy & also research into the
power locked inside Thorium.

Yeah gen4 nuke might be the answer in 20 -30 years Wink

Thorium is almost like a miracle -
ready to save the whole planet:
clean, cheap, safe, unlimited power -
enough to last forever as it's abundant.

http://www.ozpolitic.com/forum/YaBB.pl?num=1519823686/0#0

Back to top

IP Logged

Grendel

Gold Member

Offline

OzPolitic

Posts: 28080
Gender: male

Re: New paper on Climate Models
Reply #13 - May 18^th, 2018 at 9:54am

DonDeeHippy wrote on May 17^th, 2018 at 8:34pm:

President Elect, The Mechanic wrote on May 17^th, 2018 at 8:00pm:

Grendel wrote on May 17^th, 2018 at 3:19pm:

Real World Data and not fudges... that seems a much better idea.

Bingo!

and no one would be talking about global warming, shutting down power stations and sending billions of dollars to an unelected world government... Roll Eyes

That would be true if co2 was the only emission from a power plant Wink

Yeah that water vapour that's bad stuff...

Back to top

IP Logged

lee

Gold Member

Offline

Australian Politics

Posts: 16428
Gender: male

Re: New paper on Climate Models
Reply #14 - May 18^th, 2018 at 11:47am

DonDeeHippy wrote on May 17^th, 2018 at 11:30pm:

I said that coal power plants produce other poisonous gases than co2 . If u can remember you have been questioning this and I’ve been answering,

Nope. I asked what they were from a new plant and you went off on a tangent.

Perhaps you could start a thread and tell us all about it.

Back to top

IP Logged