Australian Politics Forum - Climate models increasing temp poor countries

lee

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Climate models increasing temp poor countries
May 4^th, 2018 at 4:58pm

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Climate models predict increasing temperature variability in poor countries

Extreme events such as heat waves are among the most challenging aspects of climate change for societies. We show that climate models consistently project increases in temperature variability in tropical countries over the coming decades, with the Amazon as a particular hotspot of concern. During the season with maximum insolation, temperature variability increases by ~15% per degree of global warming in Amazonia and Southern Africa and by up to 10%°C−1 in the Sahel, India, and Southeast Asia. Mechanisms include drying soils and shifts in atmospheric structure. Outside the tropics, temperature variability is projected to decrease on average because of a reduced meridional temperature gradient and sea-ice loss. The countries that have contributed least to climate change, and are most vulnerable to extreme events, are projected to experience the strongest increase in variability. These changes would therefore amplify the inequality associated with the impacts of a changing climate.

http://advances.sciencemag.org/content/4/5/eaar5809

But I thought it was about the mid latitudes and the poles. And of course it is supposed to be mainly night time temperatures

I guess there goes the funding for the poley bears and cute penguins.

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Super Nova

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Re: Climate models increasing temp poor countries
Reply #1 - May 4^th, 2018 at 9:41pm

lee wrote on May 4^th, 2018 at 4:58pm:

Quote:

Climate models predict increasing temperature variability in poor countries

Extreme events such as heat waves are among the most challenging aspects of climate change for societies. We show that climate models consistently project increases in temperature variability in tropical countries over the coming decades, with the Amazon as a particular hotspot of concern. During the season with maximum insolation, temperature variability increases by ~15% per degree of global warming in Amazonia and Southern Africa and by up to 10%°C−1 in the Sahel, India, and Southeast Asia. Mechanisms include drying soils and shifts in atmospheric structure. Outside the tropics, temperature variability is projected to decrease on average because of a reduced meridional temperature gradient and sea-ice loss. The countries that have contributed least to climate change, and are most vulnerable to extreme events, are projected to experience the strongest increase in variability. These changes would therefore amplify the inequality associated with the impacts of a changing climate.

http://advances.sciencemag.org/content/4/5/eaar5809

But I thought it was about the mid latitudes and the poles. And of course it is supposed to be mainly night time temperatures

I guess there goes the funding for the poley bears and cute penguins.

They are referring to temperature variability.
"requires an understanding not only of the changes in the mean climate but also whether and how climate variability will change"

"The predicted increases in temperature variability in the identified hotspots suggest the potential for substantial impacts on top of the impacts caused by changes in the mean climate. Poor countries are located in the identified hotspot regions of increasing temperature variability"

But I thought it was about the mid latitudes and the poles.

Isn't because as stated in below extract in the past the focus was on the mid and higher latitudes.

"Previous studies analyzing variability changes predicted by climate models have focused on changes in variance (12), mostly in high and mid-latitudes (13) and the global mean temperature (14, 15). Here, we analyze changes in the standard deviation (SD) of monthly temperature anomalies on a local scale, with the aims of (i) identifying regional hotspots where models agree on the largest magnitude changes"

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lee

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Re: Climate models increasing temp poor countries
Reply #2 - May 4^th, 2018 at 10:35pm

Super Nova wrote on May 4^th, 2018 at 9:41pm:

They are referring to temperature variability.
"requires an understanding not only of the changes in the mean climate but also whether and how climate variability will change"

Wow. Thank you Captain Obvious.
Now if you knew about CO2 Theory, you would know that it is postulated the bulk of the warming will be in the mid to northern latitudes. That's the THEORY. With night time temperatures increasing more than the day time temperatures.

That is also supposed to happen in the tropics but to a lesser extent.

And of course the poorer countries are in the tropics; generally.

Now if the night time temperatures increase more than the day time temperatures; the temperature variability must LESSEN. Yes?

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The_Barnacle

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Re: Climate models increasing temp poor countries
Reply #3 - May 5^th, 2018 at 11:52am

lee wrote on May 4^th, 2018 at 10:35pm:

Now if the night time temperatures increase more than the day time temperatures; the temperature variability must LESSEN. Yes?

No lee, you have got it wrong again.
Temperature variability doesn't refer to the difference between night and day temperatures. It refers to how temperatures vary from day to day.

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lee

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Re: Climate models increasing temp poor countries
Reply #4 - May 6^th, 2018 at 5:00pm

The_Barnacle wrote on May 5^th, 2018 at 11:52am:

. It refers to how temperatures vary from day to day.

From the paper -

"Here, we analyze changes in the standard deviation (SD) of monthly temperature anomalies on a local scale, with the aims of (i) identifying regional hotspots where models agree on the largest magnitude changes and (ii) investigating the physical mechanisms behind the identified changes."

Now quite how you propose to then identify day to day data is beyond me. And they want to make you a Science Mod?

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The_Barnacle

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Re: Climate models increasing temp poor countries
Reply #5 - May 6^th, 2018 at 5:18pm

lee wrote on May 4^th, 2018 at 10:35pm:

Now if the night time temperatures increase more than the day time temperatures; the temperature variability must LESSEN. Yes?

lee wrote on May 6^th, 2018 at 5:00pm:

Now quite how you propose to then identify day to day data is beyond me. And they want to make you a Science Mod?

Nice diversion lee. You've obviously accepted your ignorance in your previous post.

Months are made up of days are they not? You are just playing semantics to cover your own mistake.

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lee

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Re: Climate models increasing temp poor countries
Reply #6 - May 6^th, 2018 at 8:16pm

The_Barnacle wrote on May 6^th, 2018 at 5:18pm:

Nice diversion lee. You've obviously accepted your ignorance in your previous post.

Months are made up of days are they not? You are just playing semantics to cover your own mistake.

Not at all. Read the paper. Though that is probably beyond you. Wink

More from the paper -

"Because of the variability of climate on multiple time scales, observational time series are usually too short to detect a clear human influence on climate variability (16–18). Here, instead, we analyze all available state-of-the art climate models from the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project 5 (CMIP5) (19), which were used to inform the last report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change. Our time series consist of the historical simulation starting in 1850, followed by the future scenario with the largest greenhouse gas emissions, RCP8.5 (20). "

So not using data because the time scales are too small; using CMP5 which are still running too hot; starting 1850 where there was very little data and wide error bars; using RCP8.5, of which the earth doesn't have enough fossil fuel, to reach.

"In the following, we examine monthly temperature anomalies, where each anomaly value represents the deviation from the 30-year running mean of the same month at a particular grid cell in a model (see Materials and Methods). We then analyze the changes in SD over time that are associated with global warming."

"Fig. 1 Relative changes of SD of monthly temperature anomalies until the end of the 21st century."

Yeah. They did daily diagnostics until 2100. Wink

Or maybe they mislabelled the graphs and it should be daily anomalies.

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« Last Edit: May 6^th, 2018 at 9:27pm by lee »

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