stunspore wrote on Feb 4
th, 2018 at 8:52am:
she probably won't get re-elected.
Correct ... she's in the 3-year group for South Australia:
Anne Ruston (Lib)
David Fawcett (Lib)
Lucy Gichuhi (Lib)
Alex Gallacher (Lab)
Skye Kakoschke-Moore (NXT)
Sarah Hanson-Young (Greens)
She would most likely be third on the Liberals' Senate ticket, which would be an unwinnable seat. The Liberals got 32.58% of the primary vote at the last election. That would give 2.28 quotas with six members up for election. That is unlikely to give three seats.
On the other hand, Labor are likely to gain a seat because they would be defending only one seat and they got 27.32% of the vote, or 1.91 quotas. Two seats would be likely, possibly at the expense of Hanson-Young.
If the 2016 election results were repeated, the likely Senate result in South Australia would be:
Liberal 2, Labor 2, NXT 2. Gichuhi would lose her seat (as would Hanson-Young). Labor and NXT would gain a seat each.
If there's a swing to Labor, Labor would get two quotas and would have a surplus to distribute to the Greens. If that happened, Hanson Young (Greens) could take the final SA seat if she outpolls the second NXT candidate. If that happened, the results would then be:
Liberal 2, Labor 2, NXT 1, Greens 1.The only other minor party that would have a chance in SA would be Bernardi's Australian Conservatives, but I don't see them getting enough support to take a seat unless they outpolled the Greens and NXT's second candidate.