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lee

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Re: Thermometer
Reply #270 - Aug 29^th, 2017 at 11:33am

Jovial Monk wrote on Aug 29^th, 2017 at 5:20am:

These measurements have been averaged by month to remove the effect of higher frequency phenomena in order to compute an accurate linear sea level trend.

That doesn't sound like measurement. Wink

Jovial Monk wrote on Aug 29^th, 2017 at 5:20am:

The latest IPCC report, published in 2013, finds that "It is very likely that the mean rate of global averaged sea level rise was 1.7 [1.5 to 1.9] mm/yr between 1901 and 2010, 2.0 [1.7 to 2.3] mm/yr between 1971 and 2010 and 3.2 [2.8 to 3.6] mm/yr between 1993 and 2010. Tide-gauge and satellite altimeter data are consistent regarding the higher rate of the latter period" (www.climatechange2013.org).

Oh dear. An appeal to authority. The IPCC uses it therefore it must be good. Grin

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lee Gold Member Offline Australian Politics Posts: 21546 Gender:	Re: Thermometer Reply #271 - Aug 29^th, 2017 at 12:46pm BTW - Look at the graph for maximum temperatures and then take off that 0.54ºC annual average. http://www.bom.gov.au/climate/change/#tabs=Tracker&tracker=timeseries&tQ=graph%3...
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Grendel

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Re: Thermometer
Reply #272 - Aug 29^th, 2017 at 1:19pm

Jovial Monk wrote on Aug 29^th, 2017 at 11:29am:

When will temperatures exceed 1.5°C above pre–industrial?

here we go...
fact... it's been above it and below it before Monk.
We didn't tip into Venus nor Pluto....

Who cares Monk. if we are not the primary driver.

First you must identify and prove what is the primary driver.

If it's the Sun for instance... then good luck with doing much about that.

Adapt or "die" eh Cheesy

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Jovial Monk

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Re: Thermometer
Reply #273 - Aug 29^th, 2017 at 1:47pm

lee wrote on Aug 29^th, 2017 at 11:33am:

Jovial Monk wrote on Aug 29^th, 2017 at 5:20am:

These measurements have been averaged by month to remove the effect of higher frequency phenomena in order to compute an accurate linear sea level trend.

That doesn't sound like measurement. Wink

Jovial Monk wrote on Aug 29^th, 2017 at 5:20am:

The latest IPCC report, published in 2013, finds that "It is very likely that the mean rate of global averaged sea level rise was 1.7 [1.5 to 1.9] mm/yr between 1901 and 2010, 2.0 [1.7 to 2.3] mm/yr between 1971 and 2010 and 3.2 [2.8 to 3.6] mm/yr between 1993 and 2010. Tide-gauge and satellite altimeter data are consistent regarding the higher rate of the latter period" (www.climatechange2013.org).

Oh dear. An appeal to authority. The IPCC uses it therefore it must be good. Grin

The IPCC used their tide gauge data.

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Jovial Monk

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Re: Thermometer
Reply #274 - Aug 29^th, 2017 at 1:49pm

Grendel wrote on Aug 29^th, 2017 at 1:19pm:

Jovial Monk wrote on Aug 29^th, 2017 at 11:29am:

When will temperatures exceed 1.5°C above pre–industrial?

here we go...
fact... it's been above it and below it before Monk.
We didn't tip into Venus nor Pluto....

Who cares Monk. if we are not the primary driver.

First you must identify and prove what is the primary driver.

If it's the Sun for instance... then good luck with doing much about that.

Adapt or "die" eh Cheesy

The sun has been in its less active state since the late 1970s so the warming since then is not due to the sun. Nope, it is the greenhouse effect. But the sun will enter its more active state and that warming will add to AGW.

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Jovial Monk

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Re: Thermometer
Reply #275 - Aug 29^th, 2017 at 1:59pm

Jovial Monk wrote on Aug 29^th, 2017 at 11:29am:

When will temperatures exceed 1.5°C above pre–industrial?

Quote:

Abstract

Global temperature is rapidly approaching the 1.5°C Paris target. In the absence of external cooling influences, such as volcanic eruptions, temperature projections are centered on a breaching of the 1.5°C target, relative to 1850–1900, before 2029. The phase of the Interdecadal Pacific Oscillation (IPO) will regulate the rate at which mean temperature approaches the 1.5°C level. A transition to the positive phase of the IPO would lead to a projected exceedance of the target centered around 2026. If the Pacific Ocean remains in its negative decadal phase, the target will be reached around 5 years later, in 2031. Given the temporary slowdown in global warming between 2000 and 2014, and recent initialized decadal predictions suggestive of a turnaround in the IPO, a sustained period of rapid temperature rise might be underway. In that case, the world will reach the 1.5°C level of warming several years sooner than if the negative IPO phase persists.

Pretty soon it seems, exactly when depends on the PDO.

Just for roach:
Quote:

Plain Language Summary

Global temperature is rapidly approaching the 1.5°C Paris target. In this study, we find that in the absence of external cooling influences, such as volcanic eruptions, the midpoint of the spread of temperature projections exceeds the 1.5°C target before 2029, based on temperatures relative to 1850–1900. We find that the phase of the Interdecadal Pacific Oscillation (IPO), a slow-moving natural oscillation in the climate system, will regulate the rate at which global temperature approaches the 1.5°C level. A transition to the positive phase of the IPO would lead to a projected exceedance of the target centered around 2026. If the Pacific Ocean remains in its negative phase, however, the projections are centered on reaching the target around 5 years later, in 2031. Given the temporary slowdown in global warming between 2000 and 2014, and recent climate model predictions suggestive of a turnaround in the IPO, a sustained period of rapid temperature rise might be underway. In that case, the world will reach the 1.5°C level of warming several years sooner than if the negative IPO phase persists.

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lee Gold Member Offline Australian Politics Posts: 21546 Gender:	Re: Thermometer Reply #276 - Aug 29^th, 2017 at 3:30pm Jovial Monk wrote on Aug 29^th, 2017 at 1:47pm: The IPCC used their tide gauge data. They also used Michael Mann's hockeystick.
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Jovial Monk Gold Member Offline Dogs not cats! Posts: 51474 Gender:	Re: Thermometer Reply #277 - Aug 29^th, 2017 at 4:04pm The IPCC used their tide gauge data.
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Jovial Monk

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Re: Thermometer
Reply #278 - Aug 29^th, 2017 at 4:42pm

This article is based on the paper I posted the abstract (and the childrens’ version for roach) a bit earlier:

Quote:

Global temperatures could exceed 1.5 degrees Celsius above their preindustrial levels within the next 15 years, according to a new scientific study, crossing the first threshold under the Paris climate agreement and placing the world at a potentially dangerous level of climate change.

Remember the three main icesheets are on the verge of collapse, well almost so. More warming would not be good. Remember, the Eemian period 125,000 years ago was maybe a bit hotter than today—and had sea levels nine metres higher than today.

Quote:

The study focuses on a natural planetary system known as the Interdecadal Pacific Oscillation, or IPO (it’s also sometimes referred to as the Pacific Decadal Oscillation). It’s an alternating pattern of ocean temperatures that shifts periodically between warm and cool phases, helping to drive temperature and weather patterns all over the world.

During cool, or “negative,” phases, tropical regions of the Pacific Ocean tend to be colder, and the global mean temperature is lower. The system is similar to the El Niño/La Niña cycle, the major difference being that phases of the IPO tend to last much longer — sometimes a decade or more. The phenomenon is believed to be a natural form of climate variability unrelated to human-caused climate change, although it does have the potential to influence the progression of global warming.

So, what phase is it in and is it likely to move to another phase?

Quote:

For most of the 2000s, the IPO has been in a negative phase, and scientists think its cooling effect has helped to slightly offset the effect of climate change. . .

Quote:

Many scientists believe that the planet is now transitioning back into a positive, or warm, phase, which could amplify, rather than offset, human-caused climate warming. This means we could reach milestone temperature thresholds faster than we would if the IPO had remained in its negative phase.

That’s the conclusion of the new study, written by Henley and Andrew King of the University of Melbourne. Using model projections of future climate warming under a business-as-usual scenario, they suggest that the Earth could hit the 1.5-degree temperature threshold as early as 2025, while the continuation of the negative phase probably would delay this event until after 2030.

https://www.washingtonpost.com/news/energy-environment/wp/2017/05/09/earth-could...

With those three huge icesheets already on the verge of collapse hitting 1.5°C increase is not what we want to do.

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Grendel

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Re: Thermometer
Reply #279 - Aug 29^th, 2017 at 5:24pm

Jovial Monk wrote on Aug 29^th, 2017 at 1:49pm:

Grendel wrote on Aug 29^th, 2017 at 1:19pm:

Jovial Monk wrote on Aug 29^th, 2017 at 11:29am:

When will temperatures exceed 1.5°C above pre–industrial?

here we go...
fact... it's been above it and below it before Monk.
We didn't tip into Venus nor Pluto....

Who cares Monk. if we are not the primary driver.

First you must identify and prove what is the primary driver.

If it's the Sun for instance... then good luck with doing much about that.

Adapt or "die" eh Cheesy

The sun has been in its less active state since the late 1970s so the warming since then is not due to the sun. Nope, it is the greenhouse effect. But the sun will enter its more active state and that warming will add to AGW.

Warming is not due to the SUN.... there you have it folks, I didn't think he could top clouds staying within fencelines but he has...

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Jovial Monk Gold Member Offline Dogs not cats! Posts: 51474 Gender:	Re: Thermometer Reply #280 - Aug 29^th, 2017 at 5:38pm The warming, the increase in temperature since 1980 is not due to the sun. When the sun becomes active again the extra radiation will add to the warming from AGW.
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lee

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Re: Thermometer
Reply #281 - Aug 29^th, 2017 at 5:45pm

Jovial Monk wrote on Aug 29^th, 2017 at 4:42pm:

Global temperatures could exceed 1.5 degrees Celsius above their preindustrial levels within the next 15 years,

Yep. Might not also. I love the open ended predictions. Wink

Jovial Monk wrote on Aug 29^th, 2017 at 4:42pm:

Remember the three main icesheets are on the verge of collapse, well almost so.

And that would COOL the planet. Oh, no. Grin

Jovial Monk wrote on Aug 29^th, 2017 at 4:42pm:

and had sea levels nine metres higher than today.

And ice ages lower sea levels. Wow. Now all you have to do is get all that melt. Wink

Jovial Monk wrote on Aug 29^th, 2017 at 4:42pm:

The study focuses on a natural planetary system known as the Interdecadal Pacific Oscillation, or IPO (it’s also sometimes referred to as the Pacific Decadal Oscillation). It’s an alternating pattern of ocean temperatures that shifts periodically between warm and cool phases, helping to drive temperature and weather patterns all over the world.

I notice they don't include the North Atlantic Oscillation. Always so good to see "climate scientists" only look at one metric and make assumptions on climate. Wink

Jovial Monk wrote on Aug 29^th, 2017 at 4:42pm:

Using model projections of future climate warming under a business-as-usual scenario, they suggest that the Earth could hit the 1.5-degree temperature threshold as early as 2025, while the continuation of the negative phase probably would delay this event until after 2030.

HO Ho Ho. The business-as-usual scenario they use is RCP8.5. That is the worst case scenario, which even most alarmists agree is most unlikely to happen.

"The worst-case scenario among the four Representative Concentration Pathways (RCPs) is known as RCP8.5. The number “8.5” refers to the radiative forcing level measured in W/m2 in the year 2100. RCP8.5, despite it often being called “business-as usual”, has been criticized as an unlikely outcome. While true, that’s more feature than bug, since, as one of the two extreme pathways, it is designed to provide climate modellers with an unlikely, but still just plausible “how bad could it be” scenario."

Your favourite source: https://skepticalscience.com/CCFBRCP85.html

https://www.washingtonpost.com/news/energy-environment/wp/2017/05/09/earth-could...

Oh, dear, Washpo. Grin

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Jovial Monk Gold Member Offline Dogs not cats! Posts: 51474 Gender:	Re: Thermometer Reply #282 - Aug 29^th, 2017 at 5:52pm Which is the biggest ocean?
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Neferti Gold Member Offline Posts: 7965 Canberra Gender:	Re: Thermometer Reply #283 - Aug 29^th, 2017 at 5:58pm Jovial Monk wrote on Aug 29^th, 2017 at 5:52pm: Which is the biggest ocean? What has that to do with the price of fish?
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Jovial Monk Gold Member Offline Dogs not cats! Posts: 51474 Gender:	Re: Thermometer Reply #284 - Aug 29^th, 2017 at 6:09pm I know you are a self opinionated know nothing but any Australian should know about El Nino/La Nina which set temperatures across most of the world. Now, ignorant harridan, what ocean goes through the El Nino/Lan Nina cycle?
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