Australian Politics Forum - Just took delivery of. . .

Jovial Monk Gold Member Offline Dogs not cats! Posts: 51474 Gender:	Re: Just took delivery of. . . Reply #90 - Jul 12^th, 2017 at 12:18pm Do a search on it. You often say something is the Null Hypothesis when it is anything but.
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Jovial Monk

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Re: Just took delivery of. . .
Reply #91 - Jul 12^th, 2017 at 12:20pm

lee wrote on Jul 12^th, 2017 at 12:10pm:

Jovial Monk wrote on Jul 12^th, 2017 at 12:04pm:

Greenhouse gases block heat, IR, from leaving the surface of the earth and escaping to space. That is why the globe is heating.

Comment?

Wrong. By what method does it prevent heat escaping to space? Detention? When/if it strikes a CO2 molecule it will be refracted. When/if it strikes another CO2 molecule it will be refracted again. It will still escape the CO2 molecule. It is not a prison.

Does that even matter?

The graph shows: Greenhouse gases prevent IR photons from escaping to space.

Agree with that or not Lees? It is what the graph shows!

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lee Gold Member Offline Australian Politics Posts: 21661 Gender:	Re: Just took delivery of. . . Reply #92 - Jul 12^th, 2017 at 12:21pm Jovial Monk wrote on Jul 12^th, 2017 at 12:18pm: Do a search on it. You often say something is the Null Hypothesis when it is anything but. Sorry. Impossible to prove a negative. So the burden of proof is yours.
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Jovial Monk Gold Member Offline Dogs not cats! Posts: 51474 Gender:	Re: Just took delivery of. . . Reply #93 - Jul 12^th, 2017 at 12:24pm http://www.ozpolitic.com/forum/YaBB.pl?num=1495365781/81#81
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lee

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Re: Just took delivery of. . .
Reply #94 - Jul 12^th, 2017 at 12:25pm

I will try here.

"Dr Kevin Trenberth Advocates Reversing the ‘Null Hypothesis’

The debate may largely be drawn along political lines, but the human role in climate change remains one of the most controversial questions in 21st century science. Writing in WIREs Climate Change Dr Kevin Trenberth, from the National Center for Atmospheric Research, argues that the evidence for anthropogenic climate change is now so clear that the burden of proof should lie with research which seeks to disprove the human role.

In response to Trenberth’s argument a second review, by Dr Judith Curry, focuses on the concept of a ‘null hypothesis’ the default position which is taken when research is carried out. Currently the null hypothesis for climate change attribution research is that humans have no influence."

http://au.wiley.com/WileyCDA/PressRelease/pressReleaseId-101479.html

But you won't accept that because it runs counter to your beliefs. Wink

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Jovial Monk

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Re: Just took delivery of. . .
Reply #95 - Jul 12^th, 2017 at 12:29pm

Not really. Have a look what Judith Curry says there:

Quote:

Currently the null hypothesis for climate change attribution research is that humans have no influence."

That is almost the same as me saying:

H0: temperatures are stable.

But YOU mistakenly crap on “AGW is the null hypothesis” and “the null hypothesis must be natural variation.”

Notice too that Curry is talking about “climate change attribution research” not AGW pure and simple.

Nevertheless, a good attempt {pats little Lees on the head, marks him 1/10} Wink

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lee

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Re: Just took delivery of. . .
Reply #96 - Jul 12^th, 2017 at 12:43pm

Jovial Monk wrote on Jul 12^th, 2017 at 12:29pm:

But YOU mistakenly crap on “AGW is the null hypothesis”

Nope I have never said that. That's your position. Wink

Jovial Monk wrote on Jul 12^th, 2017 at 12:29pm:

Notice too that Curry is talking about “climate change attribution research” not AGW pure and simple.

Oh dear; now trying to change the terminology again. Grin

Are you stuck into the Fiano?

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Jovial Monk Gold Member Offline Dogs not cats! Posts: 51474 Gender:	Re: Just took delivery of. . . Reply #97 - Jul 12^th, 2017 at 12:44pm Not me, Judith Curry!
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lee Gold Member Offline Australian Politics Posts: 21661 Gender:	Re: Just took delivery of. . . Reply #98 - Jul 12^th, 2017 at 12:50pm Jovial Monk wrote on Jul 12^th, 2017 at 12:44pm: Not me, Judith Curry! Yes. Now differentiate between AGW and Climate Change ^TM.
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Jovial Monk

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Re: Just took delivery of. . .
Reply #99 - Jul 12^th, 2017 at 12:56pm

No, Curry mentions human agency is the null hypothesis for the rapid warming we see. I say the null hypothesis is temperatures are stable, alternative hypothesis is temperatures are rising.

1/10 Desperate Lees.

We know the globe is warming, we know the mechanism, we know we put the extra GHGs into the atmosphere (and now positive feedback loops are adding more GHGs, e.g. methane and nitrous oxide from thawing tundras.

This is known, there is no real counter theory.

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lee Gold Member Offline Australian Politics Posts: 21661 Gender:	Re: Just took delivery of. . . Reply #100 - Jul 12^th, 2017 at 1:04pm lee wrote on Jul 12^th, 2017 at 12:25pm: But you won't accept that because it runs counter to your beliefs Now you try to justify your position that AGW is the null hypothesis.
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Jovial Monk

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Re: Just took delivery of. . .
Reply #101 - Jul 12^th, 2017 at 1:12pm

No.

AGW is the theory

H1 is temperatures are increasing

H0 is temperatures are stable

That is like 6 times I have explained this. Got it now, desperate Lees? Or do I need to explain it another 12 times?

You can derive other null hypothesis: GHGs are not increasing, GHGs do not block IR and ALL OF THESE ARE FALSIFIED! Doesn’t matter if probability is 10%, with the different ways of testing the null hypothesis is always falsified!

AGW is here, no possibility of debate.

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lee Gold Member Offline Australian Politics Posts: 21661 Gender:	Re: Just took delivery of. . . Reply #102 - Jul 12^th, 2017 at 1:13pm "For this reason, we should operate under the assumption that humans are causing dangerous global warming -" https://skepticalscience.com/how-we-know-recent-warming-is-not-natural.html No claim from SKS about it being the null hypothesis. Merely that it should be.
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lee Gold Member Offline Australian Politics Posts: 21661 Gender:	Re: Just took delivery of. . . Reply #103 - Jul 12^th, 2017 at 1:14pm Jovial Monk wrote on Jul 12^th, 2017 at 1:12pm: AGW is the theory Wrong AGW is A theory.
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Jovial Monk Gold Member Offline Dogs not cats! Posts: 51474 Gender:	Re: Just took delivery of. . . Reply #104 - Jul 12^th, 2017 at 1:28pm No, AGW is THE theory to explain increasing warming of the globe. It can be tested statistically. The mechanism is known. There is no other theory that can explain what is happening. Not a one.
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