Australian Politics Forum - Just took delivery of. . .

TheFunPolice

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Re: Just took delivery of. . .
Reply #30 - Jul 9^th, 2017 at 5:51pm

Jovial Monk wrote on Jul 9^th, 2017 at 5:42pm:

It is just denialism, DRAH.

And Lees doesn’t learn, just likes throwing out important sounding terms.

“Natural variation is the null hypothesis” he bullshits. Well, no.

Have to reduce it to numbers so a statistical test can be done.

So, temperatures are increasing due to natural variation. This mean. . .? and so:

H1 is. . .?

So the null hypothesis,

H0 is. . .?

The test is. . .?

Not holding my breath for Lees to sort of fill in the details. He knows it isn’t natural variation, he is just saying that so he doesn’t have to admit to himself that it is the greenhouse effect. The ultimate cowardice.

Only a hypnotist can convince a "mark" that black is actually white: he's a p a. E do!

Fullfriggin stop bro... But we always knew what every blue blooded voter was Shocked

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......Australia has an illegitimate Government!

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lee

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Re: Just took delivery of. . .
Reply #31 - Jul 9^th, 2017 at 5:53pm

Jovial Monk wrote on Jul 9^th, 2017 at 5:42pm:

“Natural variation is the null hypothesis” he bullshits. Well, no.

Have to reduce it to numbers so a statistical test can be done.

So you have a peer-reviewed paper that supports your position? I mean the climate alarmists would be over the moon if that was the case. But so far nada.

Which means your assertion is supported by a party of one. Grin

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Jovial Monk

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Re: Just took delivery of. . .
Reply #32 - Jul 9^th, 2017 at 6:06pm

So, going to make a stab at H1, H0 etc for your position?

I did, twice IIRC, for AGW. Want me to illustrate the process a third time? I will.

1. temperatures are increasing and we have the mechanism causing the increase.

2. Because we believe temperatures are going up we have an alternate hypothesis

H1: global temperatures are rising

3. To test this we formulate a testable, i.e. falsfiable, null hypothesis

H0: global temperatures are constant

We can do a test: differences between means or the ChiSquare. Anybody seriously think ANY statistical test will show temperatures have not risen 1850–2017 well beyond any experimental or sampling error? Nope.

So we reject the null hypothesis and accept the alternative hypothesis (with the retreat of glaciers, the melting of sea and land ice etc etc it is obvious the globe is warming.)

So, Lees, you made a disparaging remark about my knowledge of statistics, care to posit some test of the position you constantly make, natural variation?

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« Last Edit: Jul 9^th, 2017 at 6:56pm by Jovial Monk »

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lee Gold Member Offline Australian Politics Posts: 21589 Gender:	Re: Just took delivery of. . . Reply #33 - Jul 9^th, 2017 at 6:43pm Jovial Monk wrote on Jul 9^th, 2017 at 6:06pm: I did, twice IIRC, for AGW. Want me to illustrate the process a third time? I will. Wow. You proved temperatures have risen. No attribution to CO2. NO AGW.
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Jovial Monk Gold Member Offline Dogs not cats! Posts: 51474 Gender:	Re: Just took delivery of. . . Reply #34 - Jul 9^th, 2017 at 6:55pm That is not what I said. Now Lees you old faker, how would you test for “natural variation?” I could do with a laugh. H1. . .? H0. . .? Test for. . .?
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lee

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Re: Just took delivery of. . .
Reply #35 - Jul 9^th, 2017 at 7:16pm

Jovial Monk wrote on Jul 9^th, 2017 at 6:55pm:

Now Lees you old faker, how would you test for “natural variation?”

Well the IPCC say that CO2 was too low to call the early 20th century warming AGW. So that had to be natural variation. Now the second half 20th century warming is similar, it has a similar slope. Therefore it can't be definitively said to be AGW. Therefore natural variation is still the null hypothesis.

Of course you could find that paper that showed it couldn't be natural variation that you haven't produced yet. The same as the alarmists trumpeting that the null hypthesis is overturned.

You are still a master of Bluff, Bluster and Bullshit. Grin

Jovial Monk wrote on Jul 9^th, 2017 at 6:55pm:

I could do with a laugh.

Yes, I am sure you lead a sad life. Wink

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Jovial Monk Gold Member Offline Dogs not cats! Posts: 51474 Gender:	Re: Just took delivery of. . . Reply #36 - Jul 9^th, 2017 at 7:18pm So you have no idea how to test for natural variation. You have no idea of statistics or climate. So it is just a way for you to avoid admitting that AGW is real.
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lee Gold Member Offline Australian Politics Posts: 21589 Gender:	Re: Just took delivery of. . . Reply #37 - Jul 9^th, 2017 at 7:21pm Jovial Monk wrote on Jul 9^th, 2017 at 7:18pm: So you have no idea how to test for natural variation. You have no idea of statistics or climate. Whereas you just have no idea.
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Jovial Monk Gold Member Offline Dogs not cats! Posts: 51474 Gender:	Re: Just took delivery of. . . Reply #38 - Jul 9^th, 2017 at 7:23pm Nice to see you admit you are ignorant.
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lee

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Re: Just took delivery of. . .
Reply #39 - Jul 9^th, 2017 at 7:29pm

Jovial Monk wrote on Jul 9^th, 2017 at 7:23pm:

Nice to see you admit you are ignorant.

Just not as ignorant as you.

How come "climate scientists" and "climate statisticians" have not discovered your marvellous invention?

Apart from which you still don't get it. Sceptics don't have to prove anything. It is the climate alarmist cult.

Write that paper, get it peer-reviewed. You could be famous. Wink

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lee Gold Member Offline Australian Politics Posts: 21589 Gender:	Re: Just took delivery of. . . Reply #40 - Jul 9^th, 2017 at 7:33pm Now tell us some more of Harries et al 2001 paper and temperatures rising from CO2. You shouldn't just look at the graphs, but read the notes. But I don't suppose Skeptical Science did that bit for you.
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Jovial Monk

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Re: Just took delivery of. . .
Reply #41 - Jul 9^th, 2017 at 7:47pm

Nah, you are an ignorant coward. You keep shouting “Null hypothesis!” and have no idea how to formulate one! You saying “Natural variability is the null hypothesis” is just so wrong! You need to put “natural variability” into a form you can derive an alternative hypothesis then derive a null hypothesis from that that can be tested.

Come on, you disparage my stats knowledge tho you know I know infinitely more about it than you. You about had a heart attack when I first showed you how to work out alternative and null hypothesis and described the ChiSquare test Wink

Now—your turn.

H1

H0

Test

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« Last Edit: Jul 9^th, 2017 at 7:53pm by Jovial Monk »

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Jovial Monk Gold Member Offline Dogs not cats! Posts: 51474 Gender:	Re: Just took delivery of. . . Reply #42 - Jul 9^th, 2017 at 7:52pm If, as I suspect, you can’t work any of this out then a small apology for the sneers and insults you have aimed at me might be appropriate.
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lee

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Re: Just took delivery of. . .
Reply #43 - Jul 9^th, 2017 at 7:53pm

Jovial Monk wrote on Jul 9^th, 2017 at 7:47pm:

You saying “Natural variability is the null hypothesis” is just so wrong!

Citation needed

Jovial Monk wrote on Jul 9^th, 2017 at 7:47pm:

You need to put “natural variability” into a form you can derive an alternative hypothesis

No, I don't.

Jovial Monk wrote on Jul 9^th, 2017 at 7:47pm:

Come on, you disparage my stats knowledge tho you know I know infinitely more about it than you

Oh dear. Delusions of adequacy, again. Wink

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lee Gold Member Offline Australian Politics Posts: 21589 Gender:	Re: Just took delivery of. . . Reply #44 - Jul 9^th, 2017 at 7:55pm Jovial Monk wrote on Jul 9^th, 2017 at 7:52pm: If, as I suspect, you can’t work any of this out then a small apology for the sneers and insults you have aimed at me might be appropriate. You on the Rovalley Rum Port again?
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