Forum

 
  Back to OzPolitic.com   Welcome, Guest. Please Login or Register
  Forum Home Album HelpSearch Recent Rules LoginRegister  
 

Poll closed Poll
Question: Are trolls real?
*** This poll has now closed ***


Yes    
  1 (50.0%)
A total fiction, mate: seek help!    
  1 (50.0%)




Total votes: 2
« Created by: TheFunPolice on: Jul 7th, 2017 at 12:41pm »

Pages: 1 2 3 4 ... 11
Send Topic Print
Just took delivery of. . . (Read 8117 times)
Jovial Monk
Gold Member
*****
Offline


Dogs not cats!

Posts: 51474
Gender: male
Re: Just took delivery of. . .
Reply #15 - Jul 7th, 2017 at 6:44pm
 
Somewhere in Environment, DRAH

Maybe google <site:ozpolitic.com monte carlo>
Back to top
 

OzPolitic needs a >real< Environment MRB now!
OzPolitic needs a >real< Food MRB now!
OzPolitic needs a >real< Health MRB now!
OzPolitic needs a >real< Economics MRB now!

Topics in the right MRB!
 
IP Logged
 
TheFunPolice
Gold Member
*****
Offline


Australian Politics

Posts: 9009
waggawagga
Gender: male
Re: Just took delivery of. . .
Reply #16 - Jul 7th, 2017 at 7:03pm
 
Monte Carlo?
Back to top
 

......Australia has an illegitimate Government!
 
IP Logged
 
Jovial Monk
Gold Member
*****
Offline


Dogs not cats!

Posts: 51474
Gender: male
Re: Just took delivery of. . .
Reply #17 - Jul 7th, 2017 at 7:22pm
 
They used monte carlo simulations to work out likely temperature distributions. Means running lots of simulations in a computer:

Quote:
Monte Carlo Simulation: What Is It and How Does It Work? - Palisade
www.palisade.com/risk/monte_carlo_simulation.asp
Monte Carlo simulation (also known as the Monte Carlo Method) lets you see all the possible outcomes of your decisions and assess the impact of risk, allowing for better decision making under uncertainty. ... Monte Carlo simulation is a computerized mathematical technique that allows ...


etc.
Back to top
 

OzPolitic needs a >real< Environment MRB now!
OzPolitic needs a >real< Food MRB now!
OzPolitic needs a >real< Health MRB now!
OzPolitic needs a >real< Economics MRB now!

Topics in the right MRB!
 
IP Logged
 
lee
Gold Member
*****
Offline


Australian Politics

Posts: 21563
Gender: male
Re: Just took delivery of. . .
Reply #18 - Jul 7th, 2017 at 7:55pm
 
Jovial Monk wrote on Jul 7th, 2017 at 5:15pm:
How can you say crap like that Lees when you know temperatures are still climbing and you know the mechanism causing that.


probably natural variation. Until such time it is proven otherwise it remains the null hypothesis. Wink
Back to top
 
 
IP Logged
 
Jovial Monk
Gold Member
*****
Offline


Dogs not cats!

Posts: 51474
Gender: male
Re: Just took delivery of. . .
Reply #19 - Jul 7th, 2017 at 8:06pm
 
Nope. Temperatures are increasing and the mechanism is known.
Back to top
 

OzPolitic needs a >real< Environment MRB now!
OzPolitic needs a >real< Food MRB now!
OzPolitic needs a >real< Health MRB now!
OzPolitic needs a >real< Economics MRB now!

Topics in the right MRB!
 
IP Logged
 
lee
Gold Member
*****
Offline


Australian Politics

Posts: 21563
Gender: male
Re: Just took delivery of. . .
Reply #20 - Jul 7th, 2017 at 8:58pm
 
Jovial Monk wrote on Jul 7th, 2017 at 8:06pm:
Nope. Temperatures are increasing and the mechanism is known.


Well in that case you should be able to provide the paper that proves it.

You haven't yet, and I don't think it will change,  Bluff, Bluster and Bullshit,
Back to top
 
 
IP Logged
 
lee
Gold Member
*****
Offline


Australian Politics

Posts: 21563
Gender: male
Re: Just took delivery of. . .
Reply #21 - Jul 7th, 2017 at 9:01pm
 
Jovial Monk wrote on Jul 7th, 2017 at 5:40pm:
There is over 40% more CO2 in the atmosphere (plus methane and soon another even deadlier GHG, nitrous oxide) than before the Industrial Revolution. There is more CO2 in the air than has been the case for millions of years.



Citation needed.
Back to top
 
 
IP Logged
 
lee
Gold Member
*****
Offline


Australian Politics

Posts: 21563
Gender: male
Re: Just took delivery of. . .
Reply #22 - Jul 7th, 2017 at 9:03pm
 
Jovial Monk wrote on Jul 7th, 2017 at 7:22pm:
Monte Carlo simulation (also known as the Monte Carlo Method) lets you see all the possible outcomes of your decisions and assess the impact of risk,



Or merely the outcomes you think of. Wink
Back to top
 
 
IP Logged
 
Jovial Monk
Gold Member
*****
Offline


Dogs not cats!

Posts: 51474
Gender: male
Re: Just took delivery of. . .
Reply #23 - Jul 7th, 2017 at 9:04pm
 
I have posted two papers re spectrometry and the greenhouse effect.

Not my fault you won’t read them.

Highest level of CO2 for 7 million years I think and you babble desperately of natural variation? Fastest temperature increase and you still babble about natural variation?

The GHG content of the atmosphere is not natural. Isotopic analysis shows it was put there by us burning fossil fuels.

There is no counter, no alternative theory but AGW.

Sorry.
Back to top
 

OzPolitic needs a >real< Environment MRB now!
OzPolitic needs a >real< Food MRB now!
OzPolitic needs a >real< Health MRB now!
OzPolitic needs a >real< Economics MRB now!

Topics in the right MRB!
 
IP Logged
 
lee
Gold Member
*****
Offline


Australian Politics

Posts: 21563
Gender: male
Re: Just took delivery of. . .
Reply #24 - Jul 7th, 2017 at 9:14pm
 
Jovial Monk wrote on Jul 7th, 2017 at 9:04pm:
I have posted two papers re spectrometry



And they don't even want to go into incoming IR. So a paper on half or less of an equation.  WinkJovial Monk wrote on Jul 7th, 2017 at 9:04pm:
and the greenhouse effect.



Ah yes. I remember your explanation on how a greenhouse works. Grin Grin Grin Grin

Jovial Monk wrote on Jul 7th, 2017 at 9:04pm:
Highest level of CO2 for 7 million years I thin


Is that with one million year smoothing to lose the data?

Jovial Monk wrote on Jul 7th, 2017 at 9:04pm:
The GHG content of the atmosphere is not natural. Isotopic analysis shows it was put there by us burning fossil fuels.


CO2 and water were only ever put in the atmosphere by burning fossil fuels? Grin Grin Grin Grin Grin Grin Grin
Back to top
« Last Edit: Jul 7th, 2017 at 10:18pm by lee »  
 
IP Logged
 
TheFunPolice
Gold Member
*****
Offline


Australian Politics

Posts: 9009
waggawagga
Gender: male
Re: Just took delivery of. . .
Reply #25 - Jul 9th, 2017 at 12:38am
 
lee wrote on Jul 7th, 2017 at 7:55pm:
Jovial Monk wrote on Jul 7th, 2017 at 5:15pm:
How can you say crap like that Lees when you know temperatures are still climbing and you know the mechanism causing that.


probably natural variation. Until such time it is proven otherwise it remains the null hypothesis. Wink

It's a valid position you take: like disproving expanding earth theory  Cheesy
Back to top
 

......Australia has an illegitimate Government!
 
IP Logged
 
Jovial Monk
Gold Member
*****
Offline


Dogs not cats!

Posts: 51474
Gender: male
Re: Just took delivery of. . .
Reply #26 - Jul 9th, 2017 at 1:34am
 
Natural variation: nuts!

When you look at the IR spectrum for the earths black body temperature you see the net blocking of IR photons by water vapor and the GHGs.

Lees made up a theory about incoming IR. That incoming IR comes from the sun, a much hotter body than the earth. He never thought about his theory, never developed it, never tested it. He really needs to get a physics book and read up on black body radiation. He won’t, too frightened he might learn something that would mean he had to change his thinking patterns

No, the GHGs work as the theory—based on the observed greenhouse effect of CO2—stipulates.

...
Figure 2: Change in spectrum from 1970 to 1996 due to trace gases. 'Brightness temperature' indicates equivalent blackbody temperature (Harries 2001).


Lees still bullshits about null hypothesis but he still doesn’t know what that would be if he wanted to test for natural variation: what is his alternate hypothesis and what is the null.

All desperate stuff. Pointless as hell. AGW is here, it is causing extreme heat events, lengthens wild fire seasons and makes wildfires more deadly and is melting bulk ice from Greenland at ever faster rates and soon Antarctica, the biggest ice sheet of all will join Greenland in rapidly raising sea levels.

Only fools like Boobhead and cowards like Lees pretend otherwise.
Back to top
« Last Edit: Jul 9th, 2017 at 2:23am by Jovial Monk »  

OzPolitic needs a >real< Environment MRB now!
OzPolitic needs a >real< Food MRB now!
OzPolitic needs a >real< Health MRB now!
OzPolitic needs a >real< Economics MRB now!

Topics in the right MRB!
 
IP Logged
 
lee
Gold Member
*****
Offline


Australian Politics

Posts: 21563
Gender: male
Re: Just took delivery of. . .
Reply #27 - Jul 9th, 2017 at 11:54am
 
Jovial Monk wrote on Jul 9th, 2017 at 1:34am:
Figure 2: Change in spectrum from 1970 to 1996 due to trace gases. 'Brightness temperature' indicates equivalent blackbody temperature (Harries 2001).


That graph seems to show a decrease in temperature for CO2 in the lower IR and no increase in the temperature for CO2 in the upper IR.

From the paper -

"The bottom panel shows the difference of 1997 minus 1970.  In most places the difference is small, but in some wavenumber intervals the 1997 brightness temperatures are significantly less in 1997."

https://www.atmos.washington.edu/~dennis/321/Harries_Spectrum_2001.pdf

Another thing the citation on the graph says "Examples of IRIS and IMG observed and simulated for a three month average (April - June) over selected regions."

And we all know CO2 is stable in the atmosphere. Wink

So basically the graph shows no warming for CO2.
Back to top
 
 
IP Logged
 
TheFunPolice
Gold Member
*****
Offline


Australian Politics

Posts: 9009
waggawagga
Gender: male
Re: Just took delivery of. . .
Reply #28 - Jul 9th, 2017 at 5:30pm
 
lee wrote on Jul 7th, 2017 at 7:55pm:
Jovial Monk wrote on Jul 7th, 2017 at 5:15pm:
How can you say crap like that Lees when you know temperatures are still climbing and you know the mechanism causing that.


probably natural variation. Until such time it is proven otherwise it remains the null hypothesis. Wink

Is the word 'probably' defined by oneself?
Back to top
 

......Australia has an illegitimate Government!
 
IP Logged
 
Jovial Monk
Gold Member
*****
Offline


Dogs not cats!

Posts: 51474
Gender: male
Re: Just took delivery of. . .
Reply #29 - Jul 9th, 2017 at 5:42pm
 
It is just denialism, DRAH.

And Lees doesn’t learn, just likes throwing out important sounding terms.

“Natural variation is the null hypothesis” he bullshits. Well, no.

Have to reduce it to numbers so a statistical test can be done.

So, temperatures are increasing due to natural variation. This mean. . .? and so:

H1 is. . .?

So the null hypothesis,

H0 is. . .?

The test is. . .?

Not holding my breath for Lees to sort of fill in the details. He knows it isn’t natural variation, he is just saying that so he doesn’t have to admit to himself that it is the greenhouse effect. The ultimate cowardice.
Back to top
 

OzPolitic needs a >real< Environment MRB now!
OzPolitic needs a >real< Food MRB now!
OzPolitic needs a >real< Health MRB now!
OzPolitic needs a >real< Economics MRB now!

Topics in the right MRB!
 
IP Logged
 
Pages: 1 2 3 4 ... 11
Send Topic Print