Natural variation: nuts!
When you look at the IR spectrum for the earths black body temperature you see the net blocking of IR photons by water vapor and the GHGs.
Lees made up a theory about incoming IR. That incoming IR comes from the sun, a much hotter body than the earth. He never thought about his theory, never developed it, never tested it. He really needs to get a physics book and read up on black body radiation. He won’t, too frightened he might learn something that would mean he had to change his thinking patterns
No, the GHGs work as the theory—based on the observed greenhouse effect of CO2—stipulates.

Figure 2: Change in spectrum from 1970 to 1996 due to trace gases. 'Brightness temperature' indicates equivalent blackbody temperature (
Harries 2001).Lees still bullshits about null hypothesis but he still doesn’t know what that would be if he wanted to test for natural variation: what is his alternate hypothesis and what is the null.
All desperate stuff. Pointless as hell. AGW is here, it is causing extreme heat events, lengthens wild fire seasons and makes wildfires more deadly and is melting bulk ice from Greenland at ever faster rates and soon Antarctica, the biggest ice sheet of all will join Greenland in rapidly raising sea levels.
Only fools like Boobhead and cowards like Lees pretend otherwise.