Signs are not clear, but they never are this early in an El Nino:

https://www.nytimes.com/2017/04/13/climate/el-nino-climate-change.html

If it is another El Nino be prepared for more hot weather and more destructive bush fires.

Oh yeah, and idiots prattle that we are in a Little Ice Age bwahahahahahahahaha

Just a suggestion, Lees: read a post before replying? Then use the appropriate boiler plate from your silly denier blogs.

I have no idea what you are mumbling about there.

Hmmmm does it?

Isn’t the El Nino/La Nina the main source of natural variation that you are always crapping on about (without understanding?)

Nah, your mouth ran away before you read the link.

So, if we do have a new El Nino this summer that will be pretty unique, right?

–The GBR dying, see;
https://www.thesaturdaypaper.com.au/news/politics/2017/04/15/killing-the-great-b...

Nice poem, Ajax!

But things are getting worse as the country warms.

–More extreme weather events

–Longer bush fire season (basically, Aug–April)

–The GBR dying, see;
https://www.thesaturdaypaper.com.au/news/politics/2017/04/15/killing-the-great-b...

AGW is here, it is caused by GHGs we emit, especially CO2 and methane.

The world has warmed from about the 1850s. While there have been peaks followed by declines the overall trend has clearly been warming.

I have posted spectrometry charts showing that the IR spectrum of IR originating from the Earth has “gaps” in it corresponding to CO2 and methane (and smaller gaps for the other GHGs.)

So some of the radiation from the sun is blocked by water vapor and the GHGs from escaping back to space. That is why the globe is heating up.

Now it appears a new El Nino is already forming.

By the way, Ajax, the warming from 1970s to this year happened at a time that the sun was quiescent.

We are way past MWP temps, Ajax.

Time to stop denying and doing some real reading.

Jovial Monk wrote on Apr 17^th, 2017 at 10:54am:

Medieval warm period warmer than today.

Dahl_Jensen et al 1998
Wagner & Melles 2001
Kaplan et al 2002
Jiang et al 2002
Moore et al 2001
Grudd et al 2002
Seppa & Birks 2002
Dansgaard et al 1975
Korhola et al 2000
Naurzbaev et al 2002
Vaganov et el 1996
Briffa et al 1998
Scweingruber & Briffa 1996
Knudsen et al 2004
Grinsted et al 2006
Besonen et al 2008
Wagner et al 2008
Vare et al 2009
Norgaard-Pedersen & Mikkelsen 2009
Andresen et al 2004
Vinther et al 2010
Kobashi et al 2010
Kobashi et al 2008
Stuiver et al 1995
Dansgaard et al 1975
Jenings & Weiner 1996
Johnsen et al 2001
Vinther et al 2010
Larsen et al 2011
Hill et al 2001
Joynt & Wolfe 2001
Hantemirov & Shiyatov 2002
Andersson et al 2003
Helama et al 2005
Mazepa 2005
Weckstrom et al 2006
Jiang et al 2007
Zabenski & Gajewski 2007
Grudd 2008
Justwan et al 2008
Scire et al 2008
Axford et al 2009
Bjune et al 2009
Cook et al 2009
Fortin & Gajewski 2010
Buntgen et al 2011
Divine et al 2011
Ran et al 2011
Velle et al 2011
D’Andrea et al 2012
Esper et al 2012


http://i63.tinypic.com/hskznq.jpg

"That’s because corals are extremely sensitive to temperature change."

The little darlings are so sensitive they have only survived about 400m years.

Prime Minister for Canyons wrote on Apr 18^th, 2017 at 10:40am:


Of course you have a reference for that? Although the Great Barrier Reef marine Park says so in relation to GBR. But GBR is not the only coral reef.

And it has not been warmer in that time?

Prime Minister for Canyons wrote on Apr 18^th, 2017 at 2:28pm:



Yes. I saw that.

From your reference -

"Setting the scene... an update on the age of the Reef

We have sourced the latest information available on the age of the Great Barrier Reef. Stay tuned though, because we’re
expecting this information to change as more research is undertaken.

These are the significant dates you should be talking about when explaining the age of the Great Barrier Reef:
•  While corals have existed on the Great Barrier Reef for as long as 25 million years, they didn’t form large structured reefs like those we see today.
•  The earliest record we have of complete reef structures (like those we see today) is from 600 000 years ago."

So that is about the Great Barrier Reef (GBR). So these new "structured reefs", how did they form? Are they any different from other world reefs?

ENSO neutral, but tropical Pacific waters continue to warm
The El Niño–Southern Oscillation (ENSO) remains neutral. However the Bureau's ENSO Outlook is currently at El Niño WATCH, meaning there is around a 50% chance—twice the normal likelihood—of El Niño developing in 2017.
Tropical Pacific sea surface temperatures (SSTs) have warmed since the start of the year. SSTs in the central tropical Pacific are now 0.5 °C warmer than average, still below the +0.8 °C threshold for El Niño levels. Atmospheric indicators of ENSO remain firmly neutral, although the Southern Oscillation Index (SOI) has returned to negative values over the past fortnight.

International climate models suggest the tropical Pacific Ocean is likely to continue warming in the coming months, though in recent weeks some models have reduced the expected extent of warming. Five of eight models indicate that sea surface temperatures will exceed El Niño thresholds during the second half of 2017; a reduction of two models since the last Wrap-Up release. It should be noted that models have lower accuracy at this time of year.

El Niño is often, but not always, associated with below average winter–spring rainfall over eastern Australia. Of the 27 El Niño events since 1900, 18 resulted in widespread dry conditions for parts of Australia.

The Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD) is currently neutral. Four out of six climate models suggest a positive IOD is likely during winter. When a positive IOD coincides with El Niño, the typical El Niño dry signal expands, and generally stretches further west over eastern and central Australia.

Models reduce likelihood of El Niño for 2017 but tropical Pacific Ocean warmer than average.

The tropical Pacific is currently El Niño–Southern Oscillation (ENSO) neutral. Despite the likelihood for El Niño easing in some models, an event in 2017 cannot be ruled out. The Bureau's ENSO Outlook remains at El Niño WATCH, meaning there is around a 50% chance that El Niño may develop in the coming months.

Sea surface temperatures in the tropical Pacific Ocean have warmed since the start of the year, but remain below El Niño thresholds. Some other atmospheric indicators have shifted over the past fortnight, but also remain below El Niño levels.

Some international climate models have reduced the likelihood of El Niño this year compared to last month. However, five of eight international climate models still indicate the tropical Pacific Ocean may exceed El Niño thresholds during the second half of 2017. It should be noted that models have lower accuracy forecasting El Niño through the autumn months.

Pretty good at this stage of an El Nino year.

Just reporting is all. That downgrade is fairly meaningless this far out anyway.

Signs are not clear, but they never are this early in an El Nino:

https://www.nytimes.com/2017/04/13/climate/el-nino-climate-change.html

If it is another El Nino be prepared for more hot weather and more destructive bush fires.

Oh yeah, and idiots prattle that we are in a Little Ice Age bwahahahahahahahaha

“Signs are not clear”

Just reporting is all. That downgrade is fairly meaningless this far out anyway.