Australian Politics Forum - A new El Nino already?

lee Gold Member Offline Australian Politics Posts: 21541 Gender:	Re: A new El Nino already? Reply #15 - Apr 16^th, 2017 at 1:19pm Jovial Monk wrote on Apr 16^th, 2017 at 12:07pm: –The GBR dying, see; https://www.thesaturdaypaper.com.au/news/politics/2017/04/15/killing-the-great-b... "That’s because corals are extremely sensitive to temperature change." The little darlings are so sensitive they have only survived about 400m years.
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lee

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Re: A new El Nino already?
Reply #16 - Apr 16^th, 2017 at 1:39pm

"The journal article makes for frightening reading. More than two-thirds of the coral on one 300-kilometre-long section of the reef is dead."

How did they determine the reef was dead?

"It’s too early to assess mortality from this summer’s bleaching. It takes months before it can be determined whether bleached corals will recover or die."

So just a pliable commentator. Only months?

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Ajax

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CO2 has never controlled
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Re: A new El Nino already?
Reply #17 - Apr 17^th, 2017 at 10:15am

Jovial Monk wrote on Apr 16^th, 2017 at 12:07pm:

Nice poem, Ajax!

But things are getting worse as the country warms.

–More extreme weather events

–Longer bush fire season (basically, Aug–April)

–The GBR dying, see;
https://www.thesaturdaypaper.com.au/news/politics/2017/04/15/killing-the-great-b...

AGW is here, it is caused by GHGs we emit, especially CO2 and methane.

The Earth has warmed but as our history shows warming and cooling cycles are a normal part of the Earth's weather system.

As our recent history shows we have had many warming and cooling cycles

a. 30-years of global cooling from 1880 to 1910
b. 30-years of global warming from 1910 to 1940
c. 30-years of global cooling from 1940 to 1970
d. 30-years of global warming from 1970 to 2000

Weren't these same nut jobs calling for a little ice age in the early 1970's because we had 30 years of global cooling.

Now when you have some evidence that CO2 controls temperature here on Earth please don't hesitate in sharing it with everyone.........

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1. There has never been a more serious assault on our standard of living than Anthropogenic Global Warming..Ajax
2. "One hour of freedom is worth more than 40 years of slavery & prison" Regas Feraeos

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Jovial Monk

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Re: A new El Nino already?
Reply #18 - Apr 17^th, 2017 at 10:37am

The world has warmed from about the 1850s. While there have been peaks followed by declines the overall trend has clearly been warming.

I have posted spectrometry charts showing that the IR spectrum of IR originating from the Earth has “gaps” in it corresponding to CO2 and methane (and smaller gaps for the other GHGs.)

So some of the radiation from the sun is blocked by water vapor and the GHGs from escaping back to space. That is why the globe is heating up.

Now it appears a new El Nino is already forming.

By the way, Ajax, the warming from 1970s to this year happened at a time that the sun was quiescent.

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Ajax

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Re: A new El Nino already?
Reply #19 - Apr 17^th, 2017 at 10:51am

Jovial Monk wrote on Apr 17^th, 2017 at 10:37am:

The world has warmed from about the 1850s. While there have been peaks followed by declines the overall trend has clearly been warming.

I have posted spectrometry charts showing that the IR spectrum of IR originating from the Earth has “gaps” in it corresponding to CO2 and methane (and smaller gaps for the other GHGs.)

So some of the radiation from the sun is blocked by water vapor and the GHGs from escaping back to space. That is why the globe is heating up.

Now it appears a new El Nino is already forming.

By the way, Ajax, the warming from 1970s to this year happened at a time that the sun was quiescent.

Temperatures are going up because we are coming out of the LIA, again it has nothing to do with CO2.

Even today we have some of the lowest temperatures and atmospheric CO2 in our history or what we can make from the data we have collected.

Both will go up and down in accordance with circumstances that dictate them.

Like I keep telling you

YOU CANNOT BOTTLE CLIMATE CHANGE

Climate change has been happening since day dot and will continue until the Earth is no more.... Wink

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1. There has never been a more serious assault on our standard of living than Anthropogenic Global Warming..Ajax
2. "One hour of freedom is worth more than 40 years of slavery & prison" Regas Feraeos

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Jovial Monk Gold Member Offline Dogs not cats! Posts: 51474 Gender:	Re: A new El Nino already? Reply #20 - Apr 17^th, 2017 at 10:54am We are way past MWP temps, Ajax. Time to stop denying and doing some real reading.
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Ajax

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Re: A new El Nino already?
Reply #21 - Apr 17^th, 2017 at 12:12pm

Jovial Monk wrote on Apr 17^th, 2017 at 10:54am:

We are way past MWP temps, Ajax.

Time to stop denying and doing some real reading.

Medieval warm period warmer than today.

Dahl_Jensen et al 1998
Wagner & Melles 2001
Kaplan et al 2002
Jiang et al 2002
Moore et al 2001
Grudd et al 2002
Seppa & Birks 2002
Dansgaard et al 1975
Korhola et al 2000
Naurzbaev et al 2002
Vaganov et el 1996
Briffa et al 1998
Scweingruber & Briffa 1996
Knudsen et al 2004
Grinsted et al 2006
Besonen et al 2008
Wagner et al 2008
Vare et al 2009
Norgaard-Pedersen & Mikkelsen 2009
Andresen et al 2004
Vinther et al 2010
Kobashi et al 2010
Kobashi et al 2008
Stuiver et al 1995
Dansgaard et al 1975
Jenings & Weiner 1996
Johnsen et al 2001
Vinther et al 2010
Larsen et al 2011
Hill et al 2001
Joynt & Wolfe 2001
Hantemirov & Shiyatov 2002
Andersson et al 2003
Helama et al 2005
Mazepa 2005
Weckstrom et al 2006
Jiang et al 2007
Zabenski & Gajewski 2007
Grudd 2008
Justwan et al 2008
Scire et al 2008
Axford et al 2009
Bjune et al 2009
Cook et al 2009
Fortin & Gajewski 2010
Buntgen et al 2011
Divine et al 2011
Ran et al 2011
Velle et al 2011
D’Andrea et al 2012
Esper et al 2012

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1. There has never been a more serious assault on our standard of living than Anthropogenic Global Warming..Ajax
2. "One hour of freedom is worth more than 40 years of slavery & prison" Regas Feraeos

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lee

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Re: A new El Nino already?
Reply #22 - Apr 17^th, 2017 at 1:36pm

Jovial Monk wrote on Apr 17^th, 2017 at 10:37am:

The world has warmed from about the 1850s.

Due to hindcasting temperatures for about 100 years. Hindcasting is not data,Jovial Monk wrote on Apr 17^th, 2017 at 10:37am:

I have posted spectrometry charts showing that the IR spectrum of IR originating from the Earth has “gaps” in it corresponding to CO2 and methane (and smaller gaps for the other GHGs.)

You have not shown a comparison. What makes you think the spectrometry is unique?

Jovial Monk wrote on Apr 17^th, 2017 at 10:37am:

Now it appears a new El Nino is already forming.

From your reference -3

"El Niño forecasts are based on computer models of the global climate. Mr. Halpert said those models were somewhat at odds with the conditions forecasters were observing."

They show considerably more doubt than you. Wink

Jovial Monk wrote on Apr 17^th, 2017 at 10:37am:

By the way, Ajax, the warming from 1970s to this year happened at a time that the sun was quiescent.

JM show he doesn't understand visible light heating anything. Wink

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Jovial Monk

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Re: A new El Nino already?
Reply #23 - Apr 17^th, 2017 at 5:44pm

Ajax wrote on Apr 17^th, 2017 at 12:12pm:

Jovial Monk wrote on Apr 17^th, 2017 at 10:54am:

We are way past MWP temps, Ajax.

Time to stop denying and doing some real reading.

Medieval warm period warmer than today.

Dahl_Jensen et al 1998
Wagner & Melles 2001
Kaplan et al 2002
Jiang et al 2002
Moore et al 2001
Grudd et al 2002
Seppa & Birks 2002
Dansgaard et al 1975
Korhola et al 2000
Naurzbaev et al 2002
Vaganov et el 1996
Briffa et al 1998
Scweingruber & Briffa 1996
Knudsen et al 2004
Grinsted et al 2006
Besonen et al 2008
Wagner et al 2008
Vare et al 2009
Norgaard-Pedersen & Mikkelsen 2009
Andresen et al 2004
Vinther et al 2010
Kobashi et al 2010
Kobashi et al 2008
Stuiver et al 1995
Dansgaard et al 1975
Jenings & Weiner 1996
Johnsen et al 2001
Vinther et al 2010
Larsen et al 2011
Hill et al 2001
Joynt & Wolfe 2001
Hantemirov & Shiyatov 2002
Andersson et al 2003
Helama et al 2005
Mazepa 2005
Weckstrom et al 2006
Jiang et al 2007
Zabenski & Gajewski 2007
Grudd 2008
Justwan et al 2008
Scire et al 2008
Axford et al 2009
Bjune et al 2009
Cook et al 2009
Fortin & Gajewski 2010
Buntgen et al 2011
Divine et al 2011
Ran et al 2011
Velle et al 2011
D’Andrea et al 2012
Esper et al 2012

http://i63.tinypic.com/hskznq.jpg

You can post your voodoo charms all you like to ward off AGW, it is still going on, Ajax.

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lee Gold Member Offline Australian Politics Posts: 21541 Gender:	Re: A new El Nino already? Reply #24 - Apr 17^th, 2017 at 6:08pm Jovial Monk wrote on Apr 17^th, 2017 at 5:44pm: You can post your voodoo charms all you like to ward off AGW, it is still going on, Ajax. Yep You just don't like a dash of realism with your delusions,
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Jovial Monk

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Re: A new El Nino already?
Reply #25 - Apr 17^th, 2017 at 10:39pm

I don’t recall any scare about global cooling in the 1960s but scientists may have been concerned aerosols (sulphuric acid etc) in the upper atmosphere may reflect sunlight leading to cooling.

But CO2 was known to be a greenhouse gas so I doubt there was widespread concern. Probably some reporter blew something someone said way out of proportion.

However, volcanic eruptions do put aerosols high up in the atmosphere, causing some temporary cooling, one source of natural variation.

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lee

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Re: A new El Nino already?
Reply #26 - Apr 18^th, 2017 at 10:35am

Jovial Monk wrote on Apr 17^th, 2017 at 10:39pm:

I don’t recall any scare about global cooling in the 1960s but scientists may have been concerned aerosols (sulphuric acid etc) in the upper atmosphere may reflect sunlight leading to cooling.

http://notrickszone.com/2016/09/13/massive-cover-up-exposed-285-papers-from-1960...

Selective memory? If you look at the right hand of the page there are 3 pages of peer-reviewed articles.

Jovial Monk wrote on Apr 17^th, 2017 at 10:39pm:

But CO2 was known to be a greenhouse gas so I doubt there was widespread concern. Probably some reporter blew something someone said way out of proportion.

258 peer-reviewed papers. This is not the Garudian. Wink

Jovial Monk wrote on Apr 17^th, 2017 at 10:39pm:

However, volcanic eruptions do put aerosols high up in the atmosphere, causing some temporary cooling, one source of natural variation.

Very good. Now link these volcanic eruptions to that time period. Wink

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Prime Minister for Canyons

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Re: A new El Nino already?
Reply #27 - Apr 18^th, 2017 at 10:40am

lee wrote on Apr 16^th, 2017 at 1:19pm:

"That’s because corals are extremely sensitive to temperature change."

The little darlings are so sensitive they have only survived about 400m years.

Umm, this would be interesting if it was the truth. The earliest evidence of complete coral structures is only 600,000 years and the growth of the current reef only began at the end of the last Glacial maximum (approx 27,000 years ago)

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In a time of universal deceit — telling the truth is a revolutionary act.

No evidence whatsoever it can be attributed to George Orwell or Eric Arthur Blair (in fact the same guy)

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lee

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Re: A new El Nino already?
Reply #28 - Apr 18^th, 2017 at 2:18pm

Prime Minister for Canyons wrote on Apr 18^th, 2017 at 10:40am:

Umm, this would be interesting if it was the truth. The earliest evidence of complete coral structures is only 600,000 years and the growth of the current reef only began at the end of the last Glacial maximum (approx 27,000 years ago)

Of course you have a reference for that? Although the Great Barrier Reef marine Park says so in relation to GBR. But GBR is not the only coral reef.

And it has not been warmer in that time?

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Prime Minister for Canyons

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Re: A new El Nino already?
Reply #29 - Apr 18^th, 2017 at 2:28pm

lee wrote on Apr 18^th, 2017 at 2:18pm:

Prime Minister for Canyons wrote on Apr 18^th, 2017 at 10:40am:

Umm, this would be interesting if it was the truth. The earliest evidence of complete coral structures is only 600,000 years and the growth of the current reef only began at the end of the last Glacial maximum (approx 27,000 years ago)

Of course you have a reference for that? Although the Great Barrier Reef marine Park says so in relation to GBR. But GBR is not the only coral reef.

And it has not been warmer in that time?

https://web.archive.org/web/20070620013057/http://www.gbrmpa.gov.au/__data/asset...

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In a time of universal deceit — telling the truth is a revolutionary act.

No evidence whatsoever it can be attributed to George Orwell or Eric Arthur Blair (in fact the same guy)

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