Australian Politics Forum - State of the sun and greenhouse gases

Jovial Monk

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State of the sun and greenhouse gases
Apr 7^th, 2017 at 7:30am

Quote:

The primary source of energy in the Earth’s climate system is incoming solar radiation, termed total solar irradiance, or TSI. At equilibrium, because of the requirement of energy conservation, the Earth’s radiative budget must balance such that TSI is equal to outgoing longwave radiation at the top of the atmosphere (a state known as radiative equilibrium). Since the radiation emitted by a body is a function of surface temperature, the Earth’s ‘effective temperature’ (TE) is the temperature at which radiative equilibrium is achieved assuming the Earth acts like a blackbody, and can be calculated (in K)

That is simple enough: at equilibrium, i.e. neither heating or cooling we need to radiate as much energy as we get from the sun at the top of the atmosphere.

In terms of geologic time, as the sun develops and grows warmer something must happen for the earth to not heat up. Not that the world is always at equilibrium, of course.

Quote:

where Fs is the TSI (currently ∼1,368 Wm−2), σ is the Stefan–Boltzmann constant (5.67 × 10−8 W m−2 K−4), A=0.29 (ref. 1) is the Earth’s average planetary albedo (the fraction of incoming radiation scattered or reflected back out of the atmosphere by clouds, particulates in the atmosphere and the Earth’s surface), and the factor of 4 accounts for the spherical and rotating nature of the Earth. The 31 K difference between TE and the observed surface temperature of the Earth (+14.0 °C or 287.1 K is the 1961–1990 mean2) is almost entirely due to the action of the greenhouse effect

Quote:

The majority (∼75%) of the greenhouse effect is due to the warming effects of water vapour and clouds, with the non-condensing greenhouse gasses (predominantly CO2 and CH4) accounting for the remaining 25% (ref. 3). However, at the temperatures and pressures typical of the Earth’s surface, water vapour and clouds act as feedbacks rather than drivers of the greenhouse effect, with CO2 and CH4, and the other non-condensing GHGs (for example, N2O) determining the overall strength of the greenhouse effect. Given this understanding, and that summarized in equation (1), the climatic evolution of the Earth over geological time is largely a function of the concentration of the non-condensing greenhouse gases, planetary albedo (A) and the TSI (Fs; for example, ref. 4).

As CO2 + CH4 warm the world more water is evaporated increasing the amount of water vapor in the atmosphere.

Quote:

As a result, there has been an increase in TSI of ∼400 Wm−2 since the formation of the Earth.

We can explain now one of Ajax’ favorite tokens to ward off evil aka chart: in early Cambrian/Ordovician time the sun was much weaker than now. So, forgetting that chart we continue with the article.

Quote:

Following ref. 4, and assuming an effective emissivity, ɛ, of the Earth of 0.6 (that is, 40% of longwave radiation is absorbed by greenhouse gases in the atmosphere), equation (1) can be used to define the following equation that describes S for today’s climate (where the surface temperature=287.1 K) in the absence of any climate feedbacks (for example, water vapour, sea-ice etc.), also known as the Planck response (hence the subscript ‘P’)

Following ref. 4, and assuming an effective emissivity, ɛ, of the Earth of 0.6 (that is, 40% of longwave radiation is absorbed by greenhouse gases in the atmosphere), equation (1) can be used to define the following equation that describes S for today’s climate (where the surface temperature=287.1 K) in the absence of any climate feedbacks (for example, water vapour, sea-ice etc.), also known as the Planck response (hence the subscript ‘P’) [/quote]

The triangles represent change in a variable, spoken as “delta” (Greek letter.)

Quote:

SP depends on the overall strength of the greenhouse effect and the surface temperature of the Earth, and so this value is not necessarily applicable throughout Earth’s history; nonetheless, this treatment provides a first-order constraint that the long-term secular increase in TSI of 400 Wm−2 would be associated with a secular warming of at least ∼20 K over the last 4.5 billion years, if albedo and emissivity remained constant. Since the combined effect of the greenhouse gas and other climate feedbacks (for example, water vapour, lapse rate, sea-ice etc.) is positive8, this is a minimum estimate of S and when all climate feedbacks are considered, Sa (where ‘a’ denotes actuo after ref. 7) is likely in the range of 0.8– 1.6 K W−1 m2 (for example, refs 7, 9, 10, 11).

The actual evolution of Earth’s temperature through geological time is a subject of considerable debate (for example, ref. 12), yet there is a longstanding view that, despite the increase in solar output, Earth’s surface temperature was, for much of geological time, warmer, not colder, than today (for example, refs 13, 14). This apparent inconsistency is known as the ‘Faint Young Sun’ paradox and to reconcile the observation of a relatively stable climate in the face of increasing solar output through time requires a parallel change in some other factors that influence Earth’s radiative budget. First and foremost among these

cont’d

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« Last Edit: Apr 7^th, 2017 at 7:46am by Jovial Monk »

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Ajax Gold Member Offline CO2 has never controlled temperature on Earth Posts: 11070 Australia Gender:	Re: State of the sun and greenhouse gases Reply #1 - Apr 7^th, 2017 at 7:42am Earth's Energy Budget watch from the 53 minute mark
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Jovial Monk

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Re: State of the sun and greenhouse gases
Reply #2 - Apr 7^th, 2017 at 7:53am

Quote:

First and foremost among these factors is thought to be a concomitant reduction in the strength of the greenhouse effect, and in atmospheric CO2 concentration in particular (for example, refs 15, 16). The radiative forcing from changing CO2 can be estimated using the following formulation17:

Quote:

where ΔFCO2 is the radiative forcing from CO2 change (in Wm−2), C represents the concentration of CO2 at the time of interest and C0 is the pre-industrial concentration of CO2=278 p.p.m. For the decrease in atmospheric CO2 to balance the increase in solar output over time, the following equation is required to be true (or at least approximately so):

Quote:

In this formulation we are ignoring the other non-condensing greenhouse gases (for example, CH4, N2O). This is partly out of practical necessity since there are currently no proxies for these gases, but is justifiable to a first order because variations in CO2 accounted for ∼80% of the greenhouse gas forcing on glacial–interglacial timescales4 and CO2 was likely the dominant greenhouse gas for the past 500 Myrs

Quote:

Testing whether the apparent stability of surface temperature is a consequence of the relative stability of climate forcing, therefore, requires high-density, high-quality data on past atmospheric CO2 levels. Consequently, in this study we compile the available CO2 data for the last 420 Myrs where, although the magnitude in the change of solar output is reduced relative to changes on longer timescales, data availability is sufficient to provide a detailed picture of the evolution of atmospheric CO2. The relative stability of climate over this interval is constrained by three lines of evidence:
(i) the continued presence of complex life, given the thermal limits of metazoans (<40–50 °C; ref. 21) and despite a number of mass extinctions22;

(ii) the continuous presence of liquid water and the occurrence of climate-sensitive sedimentary deposits (for example, coal versus glacial deposits) that indicate warm and cold periods but no evidence of an overall long-term secular trend (Fig. 1)23; and

(iii) moderate tropical sea surface temperatures (25–40 °C) as recorded by oxygen and clumped isotope analysis of fossil marine carbonates24,25,26,27. Our new compilation shows that this climate stability was the result of a long-term decline in atmospheric CO2 that, in terms of radiative forcing, approximately cancelled out the increase in solar output. This long-term view of climate forcing provides a valuable geological context for potential levels of CO2 in our warming future.

Quote:

Figure 1: Temporal evolution of climate and atmospheric CO2.
Figure 1

Latitudinal extent of continental ice deposits23 (blue bars) and multi-proxy atmospheric CO2 (in p.p.m.) compiled from the literature (data found in Supplementary Data 1; symbols). CO2 from leaf stomata shown in blue circles, pedogenic carbonate δ13C as pink crosses, boron isotopes in foraminifera as green triangles, liverwort δ13C as dark blue filled circles and δ13C of alkenones as dark blue crosses. The most likely LOESS fit through the data, taking into account X- and Y- uncertainty is shown as the blue line (data found in Supplementary Data 2). 68 and 95% confidence intervals are shown as dark and light grey bands. Red line is a linear best fit (curved due to log-scale for y axis) and 95% confidence interval for least squares regression through the CO2 data (m=3.4±0.17 1 s.e.m., R2=0.26, P<0.0005). Black line is least squares fit through the LOESS best fit (blue line) resampled to original data density (m=3.5±0.12 1 s.e.m., R2=0.44, P<0.0005). Dashed line is pre-industrial CO2 (278 p.p.m.). Icehouse time intervals are indicated by a black band and greenhouse intervals by a white band.

Quote:

Our new compilation is shown in Fig. 1 and, compared to older compilations, there is better agreement between the different methods of CO2 reconstruction28. In this case, this is largely due to the refinement of the pedogenic carbonate proxy following ref. 29 (see Methods). However, despite our efforts to improve the compilation, there are still relatively large uncertainties at times and disagreements remain between techniques for some time intervals (Fig. 1). It is also apparent that the early parts of the record rely on fewer observations and are characterized by a reduced diversity in proxy type (Supplementary Fig. 1). In order to gain a better appreciation of the multi-million-year evolution of CO2, and in light of these uncertainties and limitations we have followed a probabilistic approach where Monte Carlo resampling is used to generate 1,000 artificial time series of CO2 with each data point randomly perturbed within its age (X) and CO2 (Y) uncertainty. Each realization was then interpolated to a regular 0.5 Myr spacing and a LOESS fit was performed with the degree of smoothing optimized by generalized cross-validation30.

cont'd

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« Last Edit: Apr 7^th, 2017 at 7:58am by Jovial Monk »

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Jovial Monk

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Re: State of the sun and greenhouse gases
Reply #3 - Apr 7^th, 2017 at 8:24am

Quote:

At each time step the distribution of LOESS fits was evaluated and the maximum probability, hence the most likely value for long-term CO2, and the associated 68 and 95 percentile ranges were determined (Fig. 1 and Supplementary Data 2).

Our new compilation and probabilistic treatment reveals that for the last ∼420 Myrs, CO2, on the whole, has been elevated compared to pre-industrial values (278 p.p.m.). The highest CO2 values of ∼2,000 p.p.m. were reached during the Devonian (∼400 Myrs ago) and Triassic (220–200 Myrs ago), with individual estimates ranging up to a maximum of ∼3,700±1,600 p.p.m. at 215 Myrs. In contrast, values close to pre-industrial are found during much of the Carboniferous (∼300 Myrs ago) and late Cretaceous (∼80 Myrs ago). A linear fit to either the entire CO2 compilation, or a resampling of our LOESS fit to reflect the original data density, reveals that long-term average CO2 has declined over the last 420 Myrs by ∼3.4 p.p.m. per Myrs (Fig. 1).

Radiative forcing through the last 420 million years
Radiative forcing from CO2 change can be calculated using equation (6). This can then be combined with the radiative forcing from the increase in solar output defined by equation (3) (Fig. 2a); the temporal evolution of the simple sum of these terms (ΔFCO2,sol) is shown in Fig. 2b. As has been noted elsewhere with prior Phanerozoic CO2 compilations (for example, refs 31, 32), there is a good first-order agreement between CO2 levels and the occurrence of greenhouse/icehouse states (Fig. 1): CO2 is high during greenhouse climate states and low during icehouse climates. Our data support previous work suggesting that, when ΔFCO2,sol is considered, icehouse states generally occur when climate forcing drops below approximately +1–2 Wm−2 (refs 31, 32). This treatment also reveals that for the last 420 Myrs, despite a gradual 4% increase in solar luminosity (equivalent to +9 Wm−2 of radiative forcing), there has been very little long-term change in ΔFCO2,sol (despite shorter-term fluctuations of up to 10 Wm−2), with a linear fit to all the data suggesting only a slight decrease of 0.004 Wm−2 per Myrs (±0.001 1 s.e.m.; P=0.0003; red line on Fig. 2b); a linear fit to our LOESS fit resampled with the original data density yields a slightly higher negative slope (−0.008±0.001 1 s.e.m.; P<0.0001; black line Fig. 2b). This indicates that the long-term decrease in CO2 over the last 420 Myrs has largely compensated for the increase in solar output over the interval. In terms of shorter-term radiative imbalances, 95% of the ΔFCO2,sol values are within ±7 Wm−2 and 68% within +5/−3 Wm−2 (Fig. 3). Thus, even on multi-million-year timescales (and sometimes shorter) the external radiative forcing (not considering the action of additional feedbacks internal to the climate system such as the ice-albedo feedback) has not varied beyond ±2.0% of the total incoming radiation (∼340 Wm−2).

So a stronger sun is compensated for by lower CO2 concentrations, keeping the global temp relatively stable.

http://www.nature.com/articles/ncomms14845/figures/2
Quote:

(a) CO2 data (blue circles) and LOESS best fit (blue line; Supplementary Data 2) with ΔF for CO2 calculated as in equation (6). The change in solar forcing (ΔFsol) calculated using equations (2 and 3). (b) ΔFCO2,sol for data (blue circles) and LOESS best fit (blue line). Red line is a linear best fit and 95% confidence interval for least squares regression through the ΔFCO2,sol data (blue circles; m=−0.004±0.001 1 s.e.m., R2=0.01, P=0.0003). Black line is least squares fit through the LOESS best fit resampled to original data density (blue line; m=0.008±0.001 1 s.e.m., R2=0.06, P<0.0001). Icehouse time intervals are indicated by a black band and greenhouse intervals by a white band.

Quote:

(a) Atmospheric CO2 with proxy data in blue (Supplementary Data 1) and LOESS best fit (Supplementary Data 2) in red. Vertical lines show maximum atmospheric CO2 from relevant representative concentration pathways (RCP) (colours)39 and from a 12,000 Pg C scenario (from ref. 41; Wink12K, black dashed line). (c) Proxy-based ΔFCO2,sol in blue and LOESS best fit in red along with relevant RCP scenarios (colours)39 and 12,000 Pg C scenario (black dashed line)41.

Quote:

Regardless of the ultimate cause for the observed relative stability in ΔFCO2,sol over the last 420 million years, business-as-usual emission scenarios (for example, representative concentration pathway RCP8.5)39 for fossil fuel emissions suggest that atmospheric CO2 could peak in 2,250 AD at ∼2,000 p.p.m. CO2 values as high as this were last seen in the Triassic around 220–200 Myrs ago (Figs 3 and 4). However, because of the steady increase in solar output over time, in terms of radiative forcing by the end of this century RCP8.5 is similar to the early Eocene, and by 2,250 AD exceeds what is recorded in the geological record for at least 99.9% of the last 420 Myrs (Figs 3 and 4).

So, the way we are burning fossil fuels will see CO2 levels last seen ~210million years ago. This will upset the climate equilibrium because the sun is much stronger now than back then.

This is the essential point.

I will leave the article here.

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Rider Gold Member Offline Australian Politics Posts: 2669 OnTheRoad Gender:	Re: State of the sun and greenhouse gases Reply #4 - Apr 7^th, 2017 at 8:38am Ajax wrote on Apr 7^th, 2017 at 7:42am: Earth's Energy Budget watch from the 53 minute mark This man is sane. The other numpty not so.
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Jovial Monk Gold Member Offline Dogs not cats! Posts: 51474 Gender:	Re: State of the sun and greenhouse gases Reply #5 - Apr 7^th, 2017 at 8:41am Article too hard to read, eh? Can you summarise what that climate denier is saying?
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Jovial Monk

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Re: State of the sun and greenhouse gases
Reply #6 - Apr 7^th, 2017 at 8:54am

Here is a presentation by idiot and AGW denier Salby:

Quote:

He begins by reminding that climate is a subject of “limited understanding” and that it one of “limited observation” He tells the audience that carbon in the atmosphere cannot be regulated and is NOT a pollutant. On why CO2 science got to where it is today, he cites Mark Twain: “Never let the truth get in the way of a good story.”

In his introduction he explains how CO2 will be a pollutant to our ecosystem only when the day arrives that water vapour becomes a pollutant – i.e. never in our geological lifetime. He says that energy sources that circumvent CO2 emissions are neither greener nor cleaner – just different.

https://judithcurry.com/2016/08/10/murry-salbys-latest-presentation/

Pure male bovine excrement!

Satellite spectrometry shows the gaps in the IR spectrum from earth at each of the GHGs like CO2 and Methane, nitrous oxide, CFCs etc.

Bullshyte.

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Rider

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Re: State of the sun and greenhouse gases
Reply #7 - Apr 7^th, 2017 at 9:12am

Jovial Monk wrote on Apr 7^th, 2017 at 8:54am:

Here is a presentation by idiot and AGW denier Salby:

Quote:

He begins by reminding that climate is a subject of “limited understanding” and that it one of “limited observation” He tells the audience that carbon in the atmosphere cannot be regulated and is NOT a pollutant. On why CO2 science got to where it is today, he cites Mark Twain: “Never let the truth get in the way of a good story.”

In his introduction he explains how CO2 will be a pollutant to our ecosystem only when the day arrives that water vapour becomes a pollutant – i.e. never in our geological lifetime. He says that energy sources that circumvent CO2 emissions are neither greener nor cleaner – just different.

https://judithcurry.com/2016/08/10/murry-salbys-latest-presentation/

Pure male bovine excrement!

Satellite spectrometry shows the gaps in the IR spectrum from earth at each of the GHGs like CO2 and Methane, nitrous oxide, CFCs etc.

Bullshyte.

Hateful little thing aren't you. Typical. If you are so upset with life have you considered drinking poison rather than spewing it ceaselessly online?

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Ajax

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Re: State of the sun and greenhouse gases
Reply #8 - Apr 7^th, 2017 at 9:15am

Jovial Monk wrote on Apr 7^th, 2017 at 8:54am:

Here is a presentation by idiot and AGW denier Salby:

Quote:

He begins by reminding that climate is a subject of “limited understanding” and that it one of “limited observation” He tells the audience that carbon in the atmosphere cannot be regulated and is NOT a pollutant. On why CO2 science got to where it is today, he cites Mark Twain: “Never let the truth get in the way of a good story.”

In his introduction he explains how CO2 will be a pollutant to our ecosystem only when the day arrives that water vapour becomes a pollutant – i.e. never in our geological lifetime. He says that energy sources that circumvent CO2 emissions are neither greener nor cleaner – just different.

https://judithcurry.com/2016/08/10/murry-salbys-latest-presentation/

Pure male bovine excrement!

Satellite spectrometry shows the gaps in the IR spectrum from earth at each of the GHGs like CO2 and Methane, nitrous oxide, CFCs etc.

Bullshyte.

I read the article and nowhere does the writer refute Murry Salby's work......!!!!!

Judith actually recommends it as a good to listen to......?!

Quote:

The talk is well worth listening to.

Talk about making something out of nothing.

Lets not go to Satellite spectrometry again which has continually proved you wrong..... Grin

Is there no end to your deceiving ways JV.......... Angry

TODAY..................................MILLIONS OF YEARS AGO

https://www.google.com.au/url?sa=t&rct=j&q=&esrc=s&source=web&cd=3&cad=rja&uact=...

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Ajax Gold Member Offline CO2 has never controlled temperature on Earth Posts: 11070 Australia Gender:	Re: State of the sun and greenhouse gases Reply #9 - Apr 7^th, 2017 at 9:18am NASA Scientists Invalidate the Global Warming Hypothesis
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Ajax Gold Member Offline CO2 has never controlled temperature on Earth Posts: 11070 Australia Gender:	Re: State of the sun and greenhouse gases Reply #10 - Apr 7^th, 2017 at 9:19am Global Warming; 31,487 Scientists say NO to Alarm
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Ajax

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Re: State of the sun and greenhouse gases
Reply #11 - Apr 7^th, 2017 at 9:22am

Rider wrote on Apr 7^th, 2017 at 8:38am:

Ajax wrote on Apr 7^th, 2017 at 7:42am:

Earth's Energy Budget watch from the 53 minute mark

This man is sane. The other numpty not so.

Their science (alarmists, warmists) is a pseudo one they cannot defend it on any level.

So the only option is for personal attacks to discredit the person who questions or has a hard time following their faith.

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Jovial Monk

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Re: State of the sun and greenhouse gases
Reply #12 - Apr 7^th, 2017 at 9:22am

I don’t care what denier crap you come up with, Ajax, the case for AGW through emission of GHGs from burning of fossil fuels is pretty watertight.

And I don’t “hate life” the very idea is ridiculous!

AGW won’t bother me much in the time I have left, but it will bother young people I love and that is something I would like to do something about.

Deniers know AGW is happening—just look around, the melting or Arctic ice, the retreat of glaciers etc—but are afraid of the consequences so turn to denialism.

I am not that cowardly!

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Ajax Gold Member Offline CO2 has never controlled temperature on Earth Posts: 11070 Australia Gender:	Re: State of the sun and greenhouse gases Reply #13 - Apr 7^th, 2017 at 9:26am Jovial Monk wrote on Apr 7^th, 2017 at 9:22am: I don’t care what denier crap you come up with, Ajax, the case for AGW through emission of GHGs from burning of fossil fuels is pretty watertight. Only to the faithful algorians is the faith watertight. The Prophet Al Gore
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Jovial Monk Gold Member Offline Dogs not cats! Posts: 51474 Gender:	Re: State of the sun and greenhouse gases Reply #14 - Apr 7^th, 2017 at 9:27am I have never quoted Al Gore or “97% of climate scientists back AGW theory” or any of that crap. I write about the science. AGW theroy is science and has scientific evidence to back it up. Just read the article I posted along with my comments on it.
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