Australian Politics Forum - Why is climate science so resilient?

LawfoolNeutral

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Re: Why is climate science so resilient?
Reply #75 - Mar 24^th, 2017 at 4:41pm

lee wrote on Mar 24^th, 2017 at 4:32pm:

LawfoolNeutral wrote on Mar 24^th, 2017 at 4:03pm:

Will take me a while to absorb this, your argument hangs on the position expressed in the Spinger published paper, and I'm not sure I am equipped to critique the author (David Legates).

I will say that what I have read of him so far (he appears to be a creationist, and a Scott Pruitt supporter) are ringing alarm bells for me.

I can't post links yet (or I would) to the sources.

Well - if the third link to the SKS website still works you can do it in one foul swoop. It won't matter whether it's 65 of 40,000 or 65 of 11,000 it is still a long way short of 97%.

Given the creationist leanings of Legates why would I invest further in the third link? It makes me doubt the whole premise.

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LawfoolNeutral

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Re: Why is climate science so resilient?
Reply #76 - Mar 24^th, 2017 at 4:44pm

lee wrote on Mar 24^th, 2017 at 4:35pm:

LawfoolNeutral wrote on Mar 24^th, 2017 at 4:30pm:

Are you saying that NASA and the NOAA are not credible (for example)?

OK NOAA 1997 - 62.45ºF. Now see if you can find what the adjusted temperature is for 1997 in their table data rankings. Tell me if it has changed. Rather hard to be warmest at 62.45ºF and way down the list on the ranking data.

My reply was not aimed at you. I have already replied to you on this point. Please respond to my point about the data discrepancy on those pages.

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lee

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Re: Why is climate science so resilient?
Reply #77 - Mar 24^th, 2017 at 4:50pm

LawfoolNeutral wrote on Mar 24^th, 2017 at 4:41pm:

Given the creationist leanings of Legates why would I invest further in the third link? It makes me doubt the whole premise.

Because it is the Skeptical Science website. Setup and maintained by John Cook of Cook et al "fame".

Edit: sorry I didn't . John Cook's website for the study is/was

http://www.skepticalscience.com/tcp.php?t=search&s=a&a=&c=&e=1&yf=1991&yt=2011

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« Last Edit: Mar 24^th, 2017 at 4:56pm by lee »

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lee

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Re: Why is climate science so resilient?
Reply #78 - Mar 24^th, 2017 at 4:53pm

LawfoolNeutral wrote on Mar 24^th, 2017 at 4:26pm:

lee wrote on Mar 24^th, 2017 at 4:08pm:

LawfoolNeutral wrote on Mar 24^th, 2017 at 3:49pm:

rom the first link;
"Please note: the estimate for the baseline global temperature used in this study differed, and was warmer than, the baseline estimate (Jones et al., 1999) used currently. This report has been superseded by subsequent analyses. However, as with all climate monitoring reports, it is left online as it was written at the time."

Did you miss that?

Nope. The estimate of the baseline differs. That will only affect the anomalies. If the baseline was eg 15.9ºC and was changed to 16.1ºC, the anomaly would go down 0.2ºC. The absolute temperature would however remain the same.

The difference in the available data at those 2 links is extreme. I think you are drawing a long bow to arrive at that conclusion if that is the only data you are using, and the conclusion you have reached is misguided.

So what you are saying is that NOAA with all its millions of dollars in funding couldn't even afford to write a correction on the page?

Are you a sock for someone? Too bloody funny. Cheesy

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lee

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Re: Why is climate science so resilient?
Reply #79 - Mar 24^th, 2017 at 5:10pm

LawfoolNeutral wrote on Mar 24^th, 2017 at 4:38pm:

I can only assume that you have not looked for reputable studies on weather extremes yourself.

IPCC AR5

"There is limited evidence of changes in extremes associated with other climate variables since the mid-20th century”

“Current datasets indicate no significant observed trends in global tropical cyclone frequency over the past century".

"No robust trends in annual numbers of tropical storms, hurricanes and major hurricanes counts have been identified over the past 100 years in the North Atlantic basin”

“In summary, there continues to be a lack of evidence and thus low confidence regarding the sign of trend in the magnitude and/or frequency of floods on a global scale”

“In summary, there is low confidence in observed trends in small-scale severe weather phenomena such as hail and thunderstorms because of historical data inhomogeneities and inadequacies in monitoring systems”

“In summary, the current assessment concludes that there is not enough evidence at present to suggest more than low confidence in a global-scale observed trend in drought or dryness (lack of rainfall) since the middle of the 20th century due to lack of direct observations, geographical inconsistencies in the trends, and dependencies of inferred trends on the index choice. Based on updated studies, AR4 conclusions regarding global increasing trends in drought since the 1970s were probably overstated. However, it is likely that the frequency and intensity of drought has increased in the Mediterranean and West Africa and decreased in central North America and north-west Australia since 1950”

“In summary, confidence in large scale changes in the intensity of extreme extratropical cyclones since 1900 is low”

http://www.climatechange2013.org/images/report/WG1AR5_Chapter02_FINAL.pdf

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Jovial Monk Gold Member Offline Dogs not cats! Posts: 51474 Gender:	Re: Why is climate science so resilient? Reply #80 - Mar 24^th, 2017 at 5:15pm That is only cyclones. Plenty of other effects of AGW.
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greggerypeccary Gold Member Online Australian Politics Posts: 155778 Gender:	Re: Why is climate science so resilient? Reply #81 - Mar 24^th, 2017 at 5:18pm Jovial Monk wrote on Mar 24^th, 2017 at 5:15pm: That is only cyclones. Plenty of other effects of AGW. Theoretically.
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lee

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Re: Why is climate science so resilient?
Reply #82 - Mar 24^th, 2017 at 5:18pm

Jovial Monk wrote on Mar 24^th, 2017 at 5:15pm:

That is only cyclones. Plenty of other effects of AGW.

lee wrote on Mar 24^th, 2017 at 5:10pm:

“In summary, the current assessment concludes that there is not enough evidence at present to suggest more than low confidence in a global-scale observed trend in drought or dryness (lack of rainfall) since the middle of the 20th century due to lack of direct observations, geographical inconsistencies in the trends, and dependencies of inferred trends on the index choice. Based on updated studies, AR4 conclusions regarding global increasing trends in drought since the 1970s were probably overstated. However, it is likely that the frequency and intensity of drought has increased in the Mediterranean and West Africa and decreased in central North America and north-west Australia since 1950”

Did you miss this?

lee wrote on Mar 24^th, 2017 at 5:10pm:

“In summary, there is low confidence in observed trends in small-scale severe weather phenomena such as hail and thunderstorms because of historical data inhomogeneities and inadequacies in monitoring systems”

And this?

lee wrote on Mar 24^th, 2017 at 5:10pm:

“In summary, there continues to be a lack of evidence and thus low confidence regarding the sign of trend in the magnitude and/or frequency of floods on a global scale”

And this?

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Jovial Monk Gold Member Offline Dogs not cats! Posts: 51474 Gender:	Re: Why is climate science so resilient? Reply #83 - Mar 24^th, 2017 at 5:19pm Southern Australia is drying out. A measured fact.
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lee Gold Member Offline Australian Politics Posts: 21541 Gender:	Re: Why is climate science so resilient? Reply #84 - Mar 24^th, 2017 at 5:21pm Jovial Monk wrote on Mar 24^th, 2017 at 5:19pm: Southern Australia is drying out. A measured fact. But is it AGW or a long term cyclical pattern? BTW- We have had 2/3 of our annual rainfall so far this year and it is not even winter.
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Jovial Monk Gold Member Offline Dogs not cats! Posts: 51474 Gender:	Re: Why is climate science so resilient? Reply #85 - Mar 24^th, 2017 at 6:03pm The radiative forcings explain the warming. Global warming, regional effect. I noticed you could not offer any other forcing to explain the warming.
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lee

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Re: Why is climate science so resilient?
Reply #86 - Mar 24^th, 2017 at 6:22pm

Jovial Monk wrote on Mar 24^th, 2017 at 6:03pm:

The radiative forcings explain the warming. Global warming, regional effect.

I noticed you could not offer any other forcing to explain the warming.

http://vortex.nsstc.uah.edu/data/msu/t2lt/uahncdc_lt_5.6.txt

Yep sure looks scary in Antarctica. Regional warming. Wink

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Jovial Monk Gold Member Offline Dogs not cats! Posts: 51474 Gender:	Re: Why is climate science so resilient? Reply #87 - Mar 24^th, 2017 at 6:47pm What natural forcings can explain the warming, Lees?
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lee Gold Member Offline Australian Politics Posts: 21541 Gender:	Re: Why is climate science so resilient? Reply #88 - Mar 24^th, 2017 at 8:02pm Jovial Monk wrote on Mar 24^th, 2017 at 6:47pm: What natural forcings can explain the warming, Lees? You mean you've never felt the sun? Oh, that's right you think the only warming comes from IR. From somewhere.
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Jovial Monk Gold Member Offline Dogs not cats! Posts: 51474 Gender:	Re: Why is climate science so resilient? Reply #89 - Mar 24^th, 2017 at 8:29pm Poor desperate Lees. Natural variation explains the warming. Can’t explain natural variation. Can’t name a single forcing. Why not just say: AGW?
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