Australian Politics Forum - Why is climate science so resilient?

Jovial Monk

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Re: Why is climate science so resilient?
Reply #30 - Mar 24^th, 2017 at 11:02am

You haven’t been reading what I have posted, Lees, tsk tsk.

Natural variation is like ± .1% and can be ignored.

Natural variation: El Nino/La Nina, volcanic aerosols. Make no difference to the long run temperature increase.

Some quote variation in solar emissions. Well, we have had a quiet sun since the mid 1980s and AGW still galloped on.

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greggerypeccary

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Re: Why is climate science so resilient?
Reply #31 - Mar 24^th, 2017 at 11:03am

Jovial Monk wrote on Mar 24^th, 2017 at 10:52am:

It is a very well supported theory, Greg, with many many lines of evidence supporting it.

Yes, agreed.

However, it's still just a theory.

Jovial Monk wrote on Mar 24^th, 2017 at 10:52am:

I notice you have not put alternative theories up. Is that because you don’t have any?

I have no need to put forward any alternative theories.

However, if pressed, I would say that planet Earth's climate is doing what it's done for billions of years: changing naturally, without any influence from humans.

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lee

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Re: Why is climate science so resilient?
Reply #32 - Mar 24^th, 2017 at 11:04am

LawfoolNeutral wrote on Mar 23^rd, 2017 at 10:21pm:

Speaking of manipulating data, please don't cherry pick. Your argument is based on selective observation, a logical fallacy.

Please explain how two measurements of the same metric, global temperature, both the "hottest evah" at the time is cherrypicking. Either1997 was hotter than 2016 or it wasn't.

Based on the temperatures posted by NOAA, 1997 was warmer than 2016 by about 3º.

What you are saying is you can't compare 2016 to 2015 because that would be cherrypicking. And yet that is exactly what NOAA do in their rankings.

1 = Warmest
Period of Record: 1880–2016 Year Anomaly °C Anomaly °F
1                         2016          0.94 1.69
2                         2015          0.90 1.62
3                         2014          0.74 1.33
4                         2010          0.70 1.26

https://www.ncdc.noaa.gov/sotc/global/201613

Edit: BTW- how is reporting data, manipulating it?

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« Last Edit: Mar 24^th, 2017 at 12:17pm by lee »

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lee Gold Member Offline Australian Politics Posts: 21541 Gender:	Re: Why is climate science so resilient? Reply #33 - Mar 24^th, 2017 at 11:06am Jovial Monk wrote on Mar 24^th, 2017 at 11:02am: You haven’t been reading what I have posted, Lees, tsk tsk. Natural variation is like ± .1% and can be ignored. You haven't explained in which scientific paper they managed to separate natural v unnatural forcings.
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Jovial Monk

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Re: Why is climate science so resilient?
Reply #34 - Mar 24^th, 2017 at 11:06am

greggerypeccary wrote on Mar 24^th, 2017 at 11:03am:

Jovial Monk wrote on Mar 24^th, 2017 at 10:52am:

It is a very well supported theory, Greg, with many many lines of evidence supporting it.

Yes, agreed.

However, it's still just a theory.

Jovial Monk wrote on Mar 24^th, 2017 at 10:52am:

I notice you have not put alternative theories up. Is that because you don’t have any?

I have no need to put forward any alternative theories.

However, if pressed, I would say that planet Earth's climate is doing what it's done for billions of years: change naturally, without any influence from humans.

Well, you would be wrong, Greg.

Greenhouse gases, put up there by us, are absorbing IR radiation going out into space, working like a real greenhouse. That is not theory but fact, measured by spectrometers.

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greggerypeccary

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Re: Why is climate science so resilient?
Reply #35 - Mar 24^th, 2017 at 11:08am

Jovial Monk wrote on Mar 24^th, 2017 at 11:06am:

greggerypeccary wrote on Mar 24^th, 2017 at 11:03am:

Jovial Monk wrote on Mar 24^th, 2017 at 10:52am:

It is a very well supported theory, Greg, with many many lines of evidence supporting it.

Yes, agreed.

However, it's still just a theory.

Jovial Monk wrote on Mar 24^th, 2017 at 10:52am:

I notice you have not put alternative theories up. Is that because you don’t have any?

I have no need to put forward any alternative theories.

However, if pressed, I would say that planet Earth's climate is doing what it's done for billions of years: change naturally, without any influence from humans.

Well, you would be wrong, Greg.

I might be, but that's only your opinion.

Your theory holds no more weight than mine (and I don't really have any desire, or need, to put forward a theory - I only did it to make you happy).

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Jovial Monk Gold Member Offline Dogs not cats! Posts: 51474 Gender:	Re: Why is climate science so resilient? Reply #36 - Mar 24^th, 2017 at 11:16am Nope, the greenhouse effect has been demonstrated and measured.
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Jovial Monk

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Re: Why is climate science so resilient?
Reply #37 - Mar 24^th, 2017 at 11:17am

lee wrote on Mar 24^th, 2017 at 11:06am:

Jovial Monk wrote on Mar 24^th, 2017 at 11:02am:

You haven’t been reading what I have posted, Lees, tsk tsk.

Natural variation is like ± .1% and can be ignored.

You haven't explained in which scientific paper they managed to separate natural v unnatural forcings. Wink

I can’t help it if you don’t read. The penultimate paper I posted mentioned variation. ±.1

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greggerypeccary Gold Member Offline Australian Politics Posts: 155768 Gender:	Re: Why is climate science so resilient? Reply #38 - Mar 24^th, 2017 at 11:18am Jovial Monk wrote on Mar 24^th, 2017 at 11:16am: Nope, the greenhouse effect has been demonstrated and measured. AGW is merely a theory.
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lee

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Re: Why is climate science so resilient?
Reply #39 - Mar 24^th, 2017 at 12:10pm

LawfoolNeutral wrote on Mar 23^rd, 2017 at 10:30pm:

Quotation from page 6: "The number of papers rejecting AGW [Anthropogenic, or human-caused, Global Warming] is a miniscule proportion of the published research, with the percentage slightly decreasing over time. Among papers expressing a position on AGW, an overwhelming percentage (97.2% based on self-ratings, 97.1% based on abstract ratings) endorses the scientific consensus on AGW.”

To which study did they refer? The diabolical Doran and Zimmerman, the miserable Anderegg or the laughable Cook. Each has its faults. For Cook to get his 97% he had to discount most of his 11,000 papers. In the end he used the abstracts of 4,014 papers. And even then they weren't that robust.

"The scientists examined 4,014 abstracts on climate change and found 97.2 percent of the papers assumed humans play a role in global warming (ClimateWire, May 16, 2013)."

https://www.scientificamerican.com/article/how-to-determine-the-scientific-conse...

Assumed ? Not evidentiary based?

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lee Gold Member Offline Australian Politics Posts: 21541 Gender:	Re: Why is climate science so resilient? Reply #40 - Mar 24^th, 2017 at 12:12pm Jovial Monk wrote on Mar 24^th, 2017 at 11:17am: I can’t help it if you don’t read. The penultimate paper I posted mentioned variation. ±.1 And did they say how they determined that? Or was it just another throwaway line?
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Jovial Monk Gold Member Offline Dogs not cats! Posts: 51474 Gender:	Re: Why is climate science so resilient? Reply #41 - Mar 24^th, 2017 at 12:14pm Find the paper and ask the authors.
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lee Gold Member Offline Australian Politics Posts: 21541 Gender:	Re: Why is climate science so resilient? Reply #42 - Mar 24^th, 2017 at 12:18pm Jovial Monk wrote on Mar 24^th, 2017 at 12:14pm: Find the paper and ask the authors. Your assertion - your problem.
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BigOl64

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Re: Why is climate science so resilient?
Reply #43 - Mar 24^th, 2017 at 12:20pm

greggerypeccary wrote on Mar 24^th, 2017 at 11:18am:

Jovial Monk wrote on Mar 24^th, 2017 at 11:16am:

Nope, the greenhouse effect has been demonstrated and measured.

AGW is merely a theory.

I don't think you know what that word means, otherwise you wouldn't have used the words merely to descirbe it. Grin

Thick as pig sh1t and a scumbag liar.

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greggerypeccary Gold Member Offline Australian Politics Posts: 155768 Gender:	Re: Why is climate science so resilient? Reply #44 - Mar 24^th, 2017 at 12:22pm BigOl64 wrote on Mar 24^th, 2017 at 12:20pm: greggerypeccary wrote on Mar 24^th, 2017 at 11:18am: Jovial Monk wrote on Mar 24^th, 2017 at 11:16am: Nope, the greenhouse effect has been demonstrated and measured. AGW is merely a theory. I don't think ... There's no need to explain any further.
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