lee wrote on Mar 24
th, 2017 at 5:10pm:
LawfoolNeutral wrote on Mar 24
th, 2017 at 4:38pm:
I can only assume that you have not looked for reputable studies on weather extremes yourself.
IPCC AR5
"There is limited evidence of changes in extremes associated with other climate variables since the mid-20th century”
“Current datasets indicate no significant observed trends in global tropical cyclone frequency over the past century".
"No robust trends in annual numbers of tropical storms, hurricanes and major hurricanes counts have been identified over the past 100 years in the North Atlantic basin”
“In summary, there continues to be a lack of evidence and thus low confidence regarding the sign of trend in the magnitude and/or frequency of floods on a global scale”
“In summary, there is low confidence in observed trends in small-scale severe weather phenomena such as hail and thunderstorms because of historical data inhomogeneities and inadequacies in monitoring systems”
“In summary, the current assessment concludes that there is not enough evidence at present to suggest more than low confidence in a global-scale observed trend in drought or dryness (lack of rainfall) since the middle of the 20th century due to lack of direct observations, geographical inconsistencies in the trends, and dependencies of inferred trends on the index choice. Based on updated studies, AR4 conclusions regarding global increasing trends in drought since the 1970s were probably overstated. However, it is likely that the frequency and intensity of drought has increased in the Mediterranean and West Africa and decreased in central North America and north-west Australia since 1950”
“In summary, confidence in large scale changes in the intensity of extreme extratropical cyclones since 1900 is low”
link removed by me
After a quick skim, I don't believe that document means what you think. Much of it is highly technical, and frankly beyond my understanding, with much danger of it being taken out of context. Are you a meteorologist or climatologist or similar? I'm not.
To give you an example, read your quotes from the abstract, and then compare them to the 2 FAQ's in the document.
Page 198 FAQ 2.1 - How Do We Know the World Has Warmed?
"Evidence for a warming world comes from multiple independent climate indicators, from high up in the atmosphere to the depths of the oceans. They include changes in surface, atmospheric and oceanic temperatures; glaciers; snow cover; sea ice; sea level and atmospheric water vapour. Scientists from all over the world have independently verified this evidence many times. That the world has warmed since the 19th century is unequivocal."
Page 218 FAQ 2.2 - Have There Been Any Changes in Climate Extremes?
"There is strong evidence that warming has lead to changes in temperature extremes—including heat waves—since the mid-20th century. Increases in heavy precipitation have probably also occurred over this time, but vary by region. However, for other extremes, such as tropical cyclone frequency, we are less certain, except in some limited regions, that there have been discernable changes over the observed record."
So in fact the document you quoted as a reputable source in fact confirms that scientists worldwide believe the world is warming, and that there is strong evidence that warming has led to temperature extremes, driving weather extremes on some verified cases.
This all makes perfect sense to me, and I am reasonably confident that as further data is gathered, that we will find more evidence to tie temperature extremes to weather extremes.
If you recall, I never held this up as "proven", I simply stated that this was the current position. Science isn't magic, it's a laborious process, and this is just the start for climatology.
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